Fan Gang: Dont Look Down on Shoes and Socks

“The current crisis has taught us a bitter lesson – return to industry and dont look down upon shoes and socks.” Economist Fan Gang called on domestic enterprises to go back to heavy or light industries. “We attached too much importance to the idea of catching up with the U.S. Many of our entrepreneurs, therefore, turned their noses up at shoes and socks, cement and iron.” He reiterated that financial and service trades should retain a fixed ratio relative to industries. “As a developing country, we cannot disregard that ratio and blindly develop high-end services with the aim of surpassing developed countries.That would be another trap.”

Back to basics, says economist Fan Gang, calling on domestic enterprises to refocus on heavy or light industries.

Teng Tai: Deflation Alongside Assets Bubble

The year 2009 will see the coexistence of deflation and an assets bubble, said Teng Tai, chief economist with China Galaxy Securities Company, Ltd. As the economy shrank by a large margin while credit grew with unexpected speed, the bulk of investment went into capital markets rather than the real economy, where there were few options. The result has been a quick recovery in real estate and a prosperous stock market. This naturally creates bubbles, but“the overall situation should be deflationary.” Teng expects that the CPI this year will remain at minus one percent, but deflation will not continue, as “the Chinese economy has touched bottom and is now rebounding.”

Periodic bubbles within a steady rebound forecasted by Teng Tai, chief economist with China Galaxy Security Company, Ltd.

Xiao Gang: Monetary Policy Tightened

The central bank has vowed to continue with a relaxed monetary policy, but “in practice it has tightened policy,” admits Xiao Gang, president of the Bank of China. The central bank has retrieved some fluidity by issuing more negotiable bills. “Although the CPI is negative, interest rates remain high, but there is no sign the central bank will adjust them,” said Xiao. “This means overall policy hasnt changed, but they are handling things in a more prudent way.” He believes that credit will see stable increases in the future if policy control is appropriate, while “the loan supply will fall in the next year.”

Monetary policy unchanged on the books but prudence rules the day, admits Bank of China PresidentXiao Gang.