Sprinting To the Oval Office

By Yu Lintao & Xu Tao

Sprinting To the Oval Office

By Yu Lintao & Xu Tao

The U.S. presidential election enters a new phase

A s the rip-roaring Republican and Democratic national party conventions came to an end, the U.S.presidential race tightened leading into the November election.

Gallup polls conducted after the tw o parties’ conventions showed that incumbent U.S. President Barack Obama received a slightly bigger “bump” in voter support than Republican challenger M itt Romney, who held a consistent two-point advantage in m id-August. Meanwhile, other major U.S.pollsters also confirmed Obama’s recent lead over Romney.

Political analysts say many voters have pinned hopes on Romney to bring changes for the United States while it grapples w ith an econom ic recession and high unemployment, but Romney fizzled in the Republican National Convention w ith his vague policies on the economy. Looking for a scapegoat for the weak U.S. economy, both parties this year returned to the clumsy tactic of China-bashing in the election season.

“The determ ining factor of the campaign this year rests w ith economic policy,as the United States is mired in a depressed economy,” said Zhou Shijian, a senior research fellow w ith the Center for Sino-U.S.Relations at Tsinghua University. “Romney did well addressing economic issues when he was governor of Massachusetts, but during the national convention he failed to present an eye-catching policy framework for boosting the economy.”

Liu Qing, Director of the Department for American Studies and an associate research fellow w ith the China Institute of International Studies, said Obama’s support for quantitative easing and an export expansion plan are comparatively more attractive policies for the m iddle class—the largest group in the U.S.electorate.

Econom ic fo cus

Before the national conventions, U.S. opinion polls showed that voters saw Romney as the more capable candidate for fixing the country’s econom ic woes, while they viewed Obama more favorably as a person. A Gallup poll released at the end of August showed Romney w ith a 9-point advantage over Obama in terms of handling the economy,and a 15-point advantage in dealing w ith the federal budget deficit, two of the most pressing issues of the election. Meanwhile, Obama held a significant advantage in terms of likability, beating Romney by 23 points in the same poll, and the incumbent president is also regarded as more honest and trustworthy by voters.

“The campaign was a close game prior to the conventions, w ith Obama dow n in many polls due to the weak economy,” said Zhou. “However, Romney didn’t seize the opportunity in the Republican convention to put forward concrete and effective policies in tackling the troubled economy.”

Romney stuck to his strengths at the convention by focusing on the economy and the m iddle class to project a more w idely appealing image, though observers said the efforts fell short.

Zhou commented that Romney criticized Obama for the rough economy but didn’t clarify his own tax and spending plans. “They do little to help deficit reduction as they w ill either increase the deficit or raise taxes on the middle class,” Zhou said toBeijing Review.

“The policies Romney has proposed do not bring reassurance to U.S. voters. His deficit-cutting policy entails reducing benefi ts for the old and weak or lowering taxes for the rich,” said Tao Wenzhao, a senior research fellow on American studies with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Deficit cutting used to be one econom ic issue that Romney could count on as an advantage over Obama, but that is no longer the case, Zhou added.

Liu asserted that Obama should not take all the blame for the current U.S. econom ic situation. “The two wars waged by the George W. Bush administration during his eight-year tenure brought on severe negative influences to the U.S. economy,” said Liu.

Liu said that as a representative of the rich, Romney has many friends among the wealthy to give him a fundraising advantage.His policies are more inclined to help large enterprises such as reducing taxes for top earners, which is aimed at boosting the economy by giving greater support to entrepreneurs.

“If Romney makes it to the Oval Office,it m ight be easier for him to call on his friends in the business community to stimulate econom ic grow th w ith their abundant funds,”said Liu.

However, observers say Obama’s policies are more appealing to ordinary voters.

“Obama pushed for policies in 2008 to reduce burdens on the m iddle class and the poor, expand exports, increase employment and support quantitative easing. These all have direct appeal for average people who make up a large percentage of qualified voters,” Liu said toBeijing Review.

Tao said that in light of the latest financial crisis, Democrats have shown their ability to deal with economic issues. Appropriate state intervention is necessary for maintaining an economy’s normal functioning.

The Federal Reserve recently announced the third round of quantitative easing (QE3),which is welcomed by Democrats but opposed by Republicans.

“QE3 has taken effect on stimulating U.S. economic activity, though it might cause problems for other economies. The U.S. stock market clearly rebounded due to the stimulus. If the economy continues to improve in the weeks ahead, it would greatly benefit Obama’s reelection campaign,” said Zhou.

O ld tricks

A fter a relatively peaceful 2008 election in terms of the topic of China, this year China is again a target of attack by candidates of the two parties.

Tao said China-bashing has long been a tactic of the two U.S. parties during election years.

Since the early stages of the campaign,Romney vowed he would label China as a“currency manipulator” on his first day as president in the White House. He also criticized Obama for being weak when dealing w ith China issues.

In the meantime, Obama raised his hardline rhetoric against China. During a recent campaign trip to the industrial M idwest, he accused China of unfairly subsidizing its auto sector exports, show ing the U.S. escalation of the trade spat w ith China in a move to attract working class voters.

“It’s a transparent attempt to scapegoat China by holding it responsible for the socalled trade imbalance betw een the tw o countries and the gloomy job market in the United States,” said Liu. “They are just words used during the election season to gain votes.”

The policy statement on the Romney campaign’s official website strongly suggests that Romney would authorize the sale of advanced F-16 C/D fighter aircraft to Taiwan, which the Obama administration has eschewed thus far. “We should be coordinating w ith Taiwan to determine its m ilitary needs and supplying them with adequate aircraft and other military platforms,” the statement says.

“As the Republican Party represents the interests of the traditional U.S. defense industry, it is more likely that Romney would bring about crises if he comes to power,” said Liu.

“It is comm on fo r U.S. p resid en tia l cand id ates to ta lk tough on Ch ina p o licy in e lec tion yea rs. Bu t their w o rd s shou ld som e tim es be taken w ith a g rain o f sa lt.”

—Tao Wenzhao, a senior research fellow on American studies w ith the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

However, Tao believes that as the bilateral relations have become more mature, no big changes w ill take place regardless of who w ins the election.

“It is common for U.S. presidential candidates to talk tough on China policy in election years. But their words should sometimes be taken with a grain of salt,” said Tao. “Washington should remember Chinabashing in an age of globalized supply chains has consequences.”

It is convenient for U.S. politicians to hammer China as the source of their own problems, but they should be fully aware that their words and deeds are having a negative impact on the general atmosphere of Sino-U.S.relations and could eventually weigh down the whole world if they go unchecked.

“It is not a good tactic to target China in the campaign. It could poison bilateral relations and hurt bilateral cooperation. Some of the speeches of the candidates have not only offended Chinese people but also worried businesses in the United States,” Tao added.

“Though seem ingly there are different views between the two parties on some problems concerning China, their China policies have no substantial difference,” said Liu. “In regard to the United States’ strategic shift in its focus to the Asia Pacific, the two have already come to consensus.”