Chad Ford

The most coveted prospects in the draft -- Andrew Wiggins， Jabari Parker， Joel Embiid， Julius Randle， Aaron Gordon， Noah Vonleh and Tyler Ennis -- are all college freshmen.

在此次選秀中令所有球隊(duì)都?jí)裘乱郧蟮男滦惆ò驳卖敗ね鹚?，賈巴里·帕克，喬爾·恩比德，朱利葉斯·蘭德?tīng)?，阿隆·戈登，諾阿·馮萊以及泰勒·恩尼斯，都是大一新生。

However， if new NBA commissioner Adam Silver gets his way， they might be the last freshman class to be able to declare for the draft.

無(wú)論如何，如果NBA新任總裁亞當(dāng)·蕭華實(shí)現(xiàn)了他的想法，這些新秀可能將成為最后一屆以大一新生的身份參加選秀的球員。

Longtime NBA commissioner David Stern had tried to raise the NBA age restriction for underclassmen entering the NBA draft ever since his last grand bargain with the National Basketball Players Association （NBPA） in 2005. Silver seems determined to realize Sterns longtime dream sooner rather than later.

2005年，當(dāng)和美國(guó)籃球運(yùn)動(dòng)員協(xié)會(huì)（NBPA）進(jìn)行了最后一次談判后，NBA前任總裁大衛(wèi)·斯特恩一直試圖提高NBA選秀年齡，來(lái)限制大學(xué)一，二年級(jí)的球員參加選秀。蕭華似乎已經(jīng)迫不及待的下定決心來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)斯特恩長(zhǎng)久以來(lái)的夢(mèng)想了。

"It has been our sense for a long time that our draft would be more competitive if our teams had an opportunity to see these players play an additional year， whether it be in college or professionally in the Development League or overseas，" Silver told USA Today several weeks ago. "We believe the additional year of maturity would be meaningful."

幾周前，蕭華在《今日美國(guó)》的采訪中說(shuō)：“我們一直都認(rèn)為如果球隊(duì)有機(jī)會(huì)多看球員一年的比賽，無(wú)論是在大學(xué)、發(fā)展聯(lián)盟或者海外賽場(chǎng)，這都會(huì)使球隊(duì)選秀競(jìng)爭(zhēng)更加激烈。我們相信，這多一年的成熟會(huì)很有意義”

Silver reiterated his point at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference on March 1. Asked by author Malcolm Gladwell if he could unilaterally change one aspect of the NBA， Silver said he would raise the age restriction in the NBA.

在3月1號(hào)麻省理工學(xué)院斯隆體育分析會(huì)議上，作家馬科爾姆·格萊德威爾向蕭華提問(wèn)如果他能單方改變NBA一個(gè)方面的話他會(huì)改變什么，蕭華重申他會(huì)提高NBA的年齡限制。

Currently， players are required to wait one year from the date of their high school graduation before becoming eligible for the draft. For most players， that means theyre draft-eligible after their freshman year of college. Silver would like players to wait two years before declaring for the draft， essentially making them eligible after their sophomore season.

現(xiàn)在，球員們需要在高中畢業(yè)后等待一年的時(shí)間才有資格參加NBA選秀。這對(duì)于大多數(shù)球員意味著他們需要等到大一結(jié)束后才有資格參與其中。而蕭華卻希望他們等上兩年再來(lái)選秀，這本質(zhì)上是需要球員們讀完大二再來(lái)參加選秀。

Before the new rule could go into effect， the NBA would have to negotiate with the NBPA. The current NBA age restriction is part of the collective bargaining agreement. It cannot be changed without consent from both the NBA and the NBPA， and theres the rub.

在新規(guī)則生效之前，NBA不得不與NBPA（美國(guó)籃球運(yùn)動(dòng)員協(xié)會(huì)）協(xié)商談判。目前的NBA年齡限制是勞資協(xié)議條款的一部分，而沒(méi)有NBA和NBPA的一致同意，勞資協(xié)議條款不能改變。而這兩組織之間存在摩擦。

The current age restriction was a hardfought concession for the NBPA during the 2005 CBA. Adding an additional year has been a difficult sell to the NBPA in the past.

目前的年齡限制是NBPA（美國(guó)籃球運(yùn)動(dòng)員協(xié)會(huì)）在2005年的成本效益分析中做出的一個(gè)艱難讓步。以往，增加一年的選秀年齡限制已經(jīng)夠NBPA喝一壺了。

But if Silver can get it done （the NBPA will look for some sort of concession from the NBA for it to happen） the 2015 NBA draft could look very different from drafts of the past decade.

但是如果蕭華能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)這個(gè)設(shè)想（NBPA會(huì)努力讓NBA同樣做出一些讓步從而使這個(gè)設(shè)想實(shí)現(xiàn)），那么2015年的NBA選秀大會(huì)將會(huì)與過(guò)去十年的選秀大不一樣。

Freshmen have become a staple at the top of the draft since the current age restriction rule was implemented nearly a decade ago.

由于目前年齡限制已經(jīng)實(shí)施了近10年，大一新生已成為了選秀中的中堅(jiān)力量。

In 2006 -- the first year high school seniors were barred from the draft -- only one college freshman， LSUs Tyrus Thomas， was taken in the lottery. That number jumped to seven in 2007. In fact， three of the first four picks in the draft were college freshmen， led by Greg Oden and Kevin Durant. In 2008， four of the first five players in the draft were freshmen and a total of eight were taken in the lottery.

2006年——高三畢業(yè)生被禁止參加選秀的第一年——只有一名大一新生，泰魯斯·托馬斯，進(jìn)入了選秀。到了2007年這個(gè)數(shù)字升到了7個(gè)。事實(shí)上，前4順位的新秀中有3名大一新生，以格雷格·奧登和凱文·杜蘭特為代表。到了2008年，前5順位中有4名大一新生，在整個(gè)選秀中共有8名。

In total， 36 freshmen have been taken in the lottery since 2006. That number will likely jump into the mid-40s this season. Silvers plan， if hes successful， will drastically alter the landscape of both the draft and college basketball.

總的來(lái)說(shuō)，2006年來(lái)已有36名大一學(xué)生通過(guò)選秀進(jìn)入NBA。這個(gè)賽季后，這個(gè)數(shù)字可能會(huì)升至40多。如果蕭華成功實(shí)施了他的計(jì)劃，將會(huì)極大程度的改變選秀和大學(xué)籃球。

Silvers rationale comes directly out of Sterns textbook. The longer prospects stay in college （or play in the NBDL）， Silver reasons， the more maturity they get as individuals and players and the more marketable they are to fans. Its about improving the product on the court and selling that product to fans.

蕭華的論據(jù)直接來(lái)自斯特恩的教科書(shū)，蕭華的理由是，在大學(xué)里待的時(shí)間越長(zhǎng)（或者在NBDL發(fā)展聯(lián)盟打球時(shí)間越長(zhǎng)），球員會(huì)越發(fā)成熟，有更大的成長(zhǎng)和更多的球迷。其實(shí)這就是先在球場(chǎng)上提高產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量，再銷(xiāo)售給球迷。

But is it a good idea？

但是這是個(gè)好主意嗎？

I spoke to a number of NBA GMs， coaches and player agents to get their take. All asked that their comments be off the record. As you might expect， there was a variety of responses. It appears Silver will have strong support among many NBA front offices. Hell have even stronger support among coaches. However， as you can imagine， player agents are against it unless the NBA is willing to offer significant concessions in return.

我和許多NBA經(jīng)理，教練及經(jīng)紀(jì)人交流，試圖聽(tīng)取他們的意見(jiàn)。他們都說(shuō)不能透露自己的言論。正如你所預(yù)料的一樣，答案多種多樣。蕭華的觀點(diǎn)似乎會(huì)得到NBA高層和教練的大力支持。但是，同樣可以想象到球員經(jīng)紀(jì)人卻反對(duì)提高年齡限制，除非NBA愿意做出有效的讓步作為補(bǔ)償。

Heres a look at the good， bad and ugly reactions among the people I spoke with.

來(lái)看看我采訪的人當(dāng)中，那些支持之聲，反對(duì)之音，以及難看之處。

Silver isnt alone in thinking that the NBA can improve its product by increasing the leagues age restriction from 19 to 20. Everyone from NBA scouts to coaches sees a number of benefits.

不單單是蕭華認(rèn)為通過(guò)將年齡限制19歲提高到20歲能提高聯(lián)盟質(zhì)量，從NBA球探到教練的每一個(gè)人都看到了很多好處。

"So many of the kids that are coming to the NBA just arent ready，" said one NBA head coach. "They dont know how to play. Their bodies arent mature. They arent men yet. They are still kids. This is a mans league. It takes commitment. It takes toughness. It takes cognitive ability that these young men dont have yet. How can that not improve the game to have them stay another year？ If I had it my way， theyd stay three seasons and be eligible to declare after their junior year."

一位NBA主帥說(shuō)：“很多來(lái)NBA打球的孩子都沒(méi)有準(zhǔn)備好，他們不知道如何在NBA打球，他們的身體還不夠成熟，他們還不是成熟的男人，只是一群孩子。但NBA是一個(gè)男子漢的聯(lián)盟。它需要球員全身心獻(xiàn)身其中，需要強(qiáng)健的身體，需要這些年輕孩子都不具備的認(rèn)知力。為什么說(shuō)多留大學(xué)一年不能讓他們提高呢？若按我的方式，我會(huì)讓他們等三年，等到大三結(jié)束后才有資格決定是否參加選秀。

That sentiment was backed up by a number of other coaches who cited everything from emotional to physical maturity. College， they argue， teaches you more than basketball. It teaches responsibility. It teaches problem solving. It teaches hard work and how to handle the media. The longer players stay， the more committed they become to improving themselves instead of looking at college as a temporary rest stop on the way to the NBA.

這個(gè)觀點(diǎn)被許多教練支持，他們認(rèn)為大學(xué)生涯使球員生理和心理更成熟。他們的主張是，大學(xué)教給你的不僅僅是籃球，還教會(huì)你如何解決問(wèn)題，如何刻苦工作，如何應(yīng)對(duì)媒體。在大學(xué)停留的時(shí)間越長(zhǎng)，大學(xué)越是會(huì)完善球員，而不再僅僅是通往NBA的臨時(shí)休息站。

"I think many college coaches cant really coach the young kids the way they want to because of the one-and-done rule，" another coach told ESPN. "They have to cater to the mindset that is focused on the NBA. Forcing them to stay another year or two gives coaches more time to teach， to discipline and to really coach these young people. So many young players come into the league without the ability to take coaching. I think the one-anddone rule has helped foster that culture."

另外一名教練告訴ESPN：“我認(rèn)為由于孩子們?cè)诖髮W(xué)打一年就走，許多大學(xué)教練無(wú)法教給孩子他們想傳達(dá)的東西，而不得不迎合孩子們專注于NBA的心態(tài)。（這個(gè)條款）可以強(qiáng)迫孩子們?cè)俅粌赡辏勾髮W(xué)教練有時(shí)間去教他們，管理他們的紀(jì)律，真正教他們打球。所以現(xiàn)在許多年輕球員進(jìn)入聯(lián)盟后沒(méi)能力去理解教練的指導(dǎo)。我認(rèn)為大一新生在大學(xué)打一年球就走的情況促進(jìn)形成了這種文化?！?/p>

Sure， thats a bit of a sweeping generalization. The one-and-done culture didnt tarnish Kevin Durant， Derrick Rose or Anthony Davis. All of them thrived in the NBA from day one. None of them appears to be uncoachable. But there are enough examples of young players struggling to make the transition that these coaches might have a point.

當(dāng)然，這有點(diǎn)以偏概全。這種在大學(xué)里打一年就走的文化并沒(méi)有影響凱文·杜蘭特，德里克·羅斯和安東尼·戴維斯。他們從第一天進(jìn)入NBA開(kāi)始就開(kāi)始蓬勃發(fā)展，沒(méi)有一個(gè)不能被教練教導(dǎo)。但是，有足夠的例子來(lái)說(shuō)明年輕球員過(guò)渡到NBA的掙扎，教練們對(duì)此的觀點(diǎn)似乎是正確的。

For many GMs， the concerns are more practical.

對(duì)于 NBA經(jīng)理們來(lái)說(shuō)，對(duì)年齡限制的顧慮更加實(shí)際。

"The more data you have， the better decisions you can make about players，" one GM said. "That extra year of scouting helps everyone. It helps us see what adjustments a player makes from Year 1 to Year 2. It gives us another 30-plus games to break down. It also helps our analytics people tremendously as all of their formulas are more accurate with the more data they receive. It will make our life easier."

一位總經(jīng)理說(shuō)：“你得到的數(shù)據(jù)越多，你做出的決策就越英明。對(duì)球員額外一年的觀察對(duì)大家來(lái)說(shuō)是很有好處的，它幫助我們發(fā)現(xiàn)一名球員從大一到大二有什么進(jìn)步，它給予了我們額外的30多場(chǎng)比賽來(lái)考察。當(dāng)分析員擁有更多的數(shù)據(jù)時(shí)，得出的公式也就更準(zhǔn)確。這使得我們的職業(yè)生涯變得更輕松?！?/p>

Perhaps. More data certainly shouldnt hurt （though one can overscout players， too）. But many of the busts at the top of the draft have not been freshmen， but sophomores and juniors who might have been overvalued because of familiarity. Hasheem Thabeet（junior）， Adam Morrison （junior）， Evan Turner（junior）， Derrick Williams （sophomore） and Wesley Johnson （junior） were all top-five picks who didnt pan out. Teams had plenty of data on them.

也許，更多的數(shù)據(jù)不會(huì)有壞處（也可能會(huì)過(guò)度的考察球員），但前幾位的新秀不是大一新生，而是大二和大三學(xué)生時(shí)，由于過(guò)于熟悉，他們可能會(huì)被高估。哈希姆·塔比特（大三），亞當(dāng)·莫里森（大三），埃文·特納（大三），德里克·威廉姆斯（大二）和韋斯利·約翰遜（大三）都是前五位的球員，但沒(méi)在NBA里一帆風(fēng)順，雖然球隊(duì)有關(guān)于他們足夠多的數(shù)據(jù)。

Finally， several GMs saw an opportunity to create a real minor league out of the NBDL if the change occurs.

如果成真，一些球隊(duì)經(jīng)理看到了一個(gè)創(chuàng)造真正的NBDL以外的小聯(lián)盟的機(jī)會(huì)。

"I think more players will take a harder look at skipping college and going straight to the D-League，" one GM said. "Especially if we can pay them a little more. Waiting for two years under the restrictions of the NCAA will be a hardship for some. I think if we can get every team owning a D-League franchise， we can really start to do our part to prepare players to play in the NBA. It would be good for the league."

一位經(jīng)理說(shuō)：“我認(rèn)為會(huì)有更多球員考慮跳過(guò)大學(xué)直接進(jìn)入發(fā)展聯(lián)盟打球，尤其是當(dāng)他們還能在發(fā)展聯(lián)盟賺點(diǎn)小錢(qián)的情況下。在NCAA的年齡限制下等待兩年對(duì)某些人來(lái)說(shuō)是比較困難的。如果每支球隊(duì)都在發(fā)展聯(lián)盟中有一支附屬球隊(duì)，我們可以真正的為球員進(jìn)入NBA做準(zhǔn)備。這對(duì)于聯(lián)賽來(lái)說(shuō)是有益的。”

However， not everyone is on board. A number of GMs feel like the NBA is being paternalistic. Good front offices， they argue， know how to find and develop talent. Its not the players fault -- its the fault of inept GMs.

無(wú)論如何，并不是所有的人都這么認(rèn)為。有一部分的經(jīng)理認(rèn)為NBA變得過(guò)于家長(zhǎng)式作風(fēng)。他們認(rèn)為，好的球隊(duì)管理層能知道如何挖掘和發(fā)展天賦。這不是球員的錯(cuò)——這是不稱職的總經(jīng)理的錯(cuò)誤。

"I think its an overreaction，" one GM said."Teams that know what they are doing， have the right process and support structure in place， do very well. Adam should spend less time lecturing the NBPA and more time lecturing owners who are spending up to $100 million a year but dont know how to develop or find good players. Most of the teams that struggle with this just dont have the right systems in place. What we really need is a developmental league for executives and scouts."

一位球隊(duì)經(jīng)理表示：“我認(rèn)為這反應(yīng)有點(diǎn)過(guò)激了。那些知道自己在做什么的球隊(duì)有正確的程序和完整的支撐結(jié)構(gòu)，做的非常出色。亞當(dāng)應(yīng)該少花點(diǎn)時(shí)間去教導(dǎo)NBPA，而應(yīng)去指導(dǎo)那些每年花1億美金卻不知怎么挖掘或發(fā)展優(yōu)秀球員的NBA球隊(duì)老板。大多數(shù)為此而掙扎的球隊(duì)只是因?yàn)闆](méi)有正確的系統(tǒng)。我們真正需要的是更為先進(jìn)的球隊(duì)管理層和球探。”

Others argue top players dont necessarily need another year in college， but rather better competition against bigger， faster and more experienced professionals.

其他經(jīng)理認(rèn)為頂尖球員不需在大學(xué)度過(guò)額外的一年，取而代之的應(yīng)該去好的聯(lián)賽中，和更強(qiáng)，更快，更有經(jīng)驗(yàn)的職業(yè)球員對(duì)抗。

"Another year at school was going to help Kevin Durant？" one NBA scout mused."Derrick Rose needed to beat up on college kids for another year？ At some point your game stagnates unless it is challenged. I cant see Jabari Parker being better in 2016 if he stayed in college instead of coming directly to the NBA. Its the better competition that raises his game. And can we quit pretending that the college game and the NBA are the same game？ Theyre not. The quicker they learn the NBA game， the better."

“凱文·杜蘭特多留校一年會(huì)有進(jìn)步？” 一個(gè)球探謹(jǐn)慎地說(shuō)道，“德里克·羅斯需要再一次擊敗大學(xué)孩子？有些時(shí)候如果聯(lián)賽沒(méi)有挑戰(zhàn)，球員就會(huì)停滯不前。我不覺(jué)得賈巴里·帕克如果不參加選秀進(jìn)入NBA而選擇留校到2016年還會(huì)有什么進(jìn)步。這是一個(gè)能幫助他更進(jìn)一步的比賽。我們能別再繼續(xù)認(rèn)為大學(xué)比賽和NBA是同等級(jí)別的了嗎？它們不是（同等級(jí)別的）。這些球員越早進(jìn)入NBA越好?！?/p>

Agents arent on board either， but for different reasons.

經(jīng)紀(jì)人也同樣覺(jué)得提高年齡限制這個(gè)想法不好，但有不同的理由。

"If a player is ready for the NBA， theyre ready，" one player agent said. "Why have an arbitrary age limit that treats everyone like theyre equal？ LeBron James was ready. Tyrus Thomas wasnt. Its a PR gimmick and everyone knows it. It has nothing to do with what Adam is saying. It has everything to do with using the NCAA to help build a players marketability.

一名經(jīng)紀(jì)人說(shuō)：“如果球員已經(jīng)準(zhǔn)備好打NBA了，既然他們做好了準(zhǔn)備，那為什么要對(duì)所有人都有相同的年齡限制呢？勒布朗·詹姆斯已經(jīng)準(zhǔn)備好了。泰魯斯·托馬斯沒(méi)有。這是一個(gè)公關(guān)噱頭，每個(gè)人都知道的。這跟亞當(dāng)說(shuō)的話沒(méi)有一點(diǎn)關(guān)系。這是一個(gè)關(guān)于是否用NCAA來(lái)增加球員市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的問(wèn)題?！?/p>

"If you really believe in your teams， let the players and GMs make that call and live with the consequences. Why should a player who wants to come and is ready to come be barred because someone else -- either a team or a player -- made a stupid decision in the past？ Would LeBron really have been better off waiting two years？ Would Durant or Rose somehow have a better career？ NBA careers are short. For the players that are ready， I think they should come when theyre ready. If theyre a junior in high school and they can play， let them come and try."

“如果你真的相信你的球隊(duì)，那就讓球員和總經(jīng)理通個(gè)電話并承擔(dān)后果。為什么一個(gè)球員愿意來(lái)，并準(zhǔn)備好了，卻由于過(guò)去可能是球隊(duì)或其他球員做了愚蠢的決定而被禁止呢？勒布朗真的該再等兩年嗎？杜蘭特或羅斯會(huì)因此莫名其妙擁有更好的職業(yè)生涯嗎？NBA職業(yè)生涯很短暫，當(dāng)球員做好了準(zhǔn)備，我認(rèn)為他們?cè)搧?lái)。如果他們是高中三年級(jí)，但是他們卻能打NBA，那就讓他們來(lái)試試吧?！?/p>

The truth is， if new age restrictions do go into effect in 2015， the pain will really be felt in the next draft.

事實(shí)上，如果2015年年齡限制提案生效，那么下一屆選秀將會(huì)感受到與之而來(lái)的苦果。

With all the top freshmen bolting for the NBA this year， and with no freshmen to come in and replace them in the draft pool， the 2015 draft would be filled with players who essentially couldnt cut it in the 2014 draft.For teams that are in the rebuilding process at the moment， it would mean a historically weak draft that would be potentially devastating to the teams with high lottery picks -- essentially punishing teams near the top of the draft with marginal choices.

2014年，當(dāng)所有的頂尖大一學(xué)生進(jìn)入了NBA選秀，2015年沒(méi)有新的大一學(xué)生參加選秀，也就是說(shuō)2015年的新秀基本都是2014年落選的球員。

對(duì)于目前處于重組中的球隊(duì)來(lái)說(shuō)，2015年意味著歷史上最弱的一次選秀陣容，也將潛在的破壞擁有高順位選秀權(quán)的球隊(duì)——本質(zhì)上等于懲罰那些前幾順位的球隊(duì)只能擁有一些無(wú)足輕重的新秀。

That fact alone will provoke resistance.

光是這件事就會(huì)激起大家抵觸。

"There are a lot of teams right now who are eyeing 2015 with some real fear，" one GM said. "We dont have the job security of Adam Silver. We have sold our owners on a plan. Change the competitive landscape， push back the plan and neither we， nor the owners， are happy. A year is a long time in basketball."

一位球隊(duì)總經(jīng)理表示：“現(xiàn)在有不少球隊(duì)對(duì)2015年產(chǎn)生了真正的恐懼，我們沒(méi)有亞當(dāng)·蕭華的工作安全感。我們需要向我們的雇主出售我們的計(jì)劃，改變競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局，一旦推遲計(jì)劃，我和我的老板都不開(kāi)心。在籃球界，一年是很長(zhǎng)的一段時(shí)間?！?/p>

It sure is. Just ask Jahlil Okafor， Cliff Alexander， Myles Turner， Karl Towns Jr.， Emmanuel Mudiay and a host of other high school seniors whose dreams of one-and-done might be on the verge of disappearing.

一年肯定是很長(zhǎng)的，只要問(wèn)問(wèn)賈利爾·奧卡福，克里夫·亞歷山大，邁爾斯·特納，小卡爾·湯斯，伊曼紐爾·穆迪艾①和許多其他大一參加選秀的夢(mèng)想可能因此而破滅的高中就一定會(huì)得到肯定的答案。