Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming

Davis, AJ; Jenkinson, LS; Lawton, JH; et al.

Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants

Root, TL; Price, JT; Hall, KR; et al.

A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

Parmesan, C; Yohe, G

Extinction risk from climate change

Thomas, CD; Cameron, A; Green, RE; et al.

全球變暖中的科學(xué)問題

趙宗慈，羅勇，王紹武，黃建斌

氣候變化國家評估報告（I）：中國氣候變化的歷史和未來趨勢

丁一匯，任國玉，石廣玉，等

全球變暖

·編者按·

全球變暖（Global Warming），即全球氣候變暖，全球氣候在不斷的變化，有時暖有時冷，這里專指的是在一段時間中，地球的大氣和海洋因溫室效應(yīng)而造成溫度上升的氣候變化現(xiàn)象。1880—2012年，全球平均地表溫度升高了0.85℃。1951—2012年，全球平均地表溫度的升溫速率（0.12℃/10 a）幾乎是1880年以來升溫速率的2倍。全球變暖會使全球降水量重新分配、冰川和凍土消融、海平面上升等，不僅危害自然生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的平衡，還成為制約人類社會可持續(xù)發(fā)展的重大問題，甚至威脅人類的生存。全球變暖是氣候變化自然變率和人類活動排放溫室氣體共同作用的結(jié)果，升溫并不是簡單的線性過程。

1998—2012年觀測數(shù)據(jù)顯示，盡管大氣中的溫室氣體濃度仍在增加，但全球溫度年均值并未明顯升高，增暖僅0.05℃（-0.05±0.15℃）/10 a，這一現(xiàn)象也被稱為hiatus（“間斷”或“停滯”）現(xiàn)象，值得注意的是，據(jù)世界氣象組織最新報告顯示：2011—2015年是有觀測記錄以來全球最暖的5年，并且2015年是有觀測記錄以來全球最暖的1年。目前普遍的看法是：1998—2012年的全球變暖趨緩可能是受到自然氣候變率的影響，但是從近50年全球氣溫變化的總趨勢上看，仍然處在明顯變暖趨勢。全球氣溫的變化受到自然和人類的共同作用，各種作用機制的相對重要性仍需要進一步的定量分析證據(jù)；盡管未來還有可能發(fā)生類似的全球變暖趨緩事件，但隨著溫室氣體濃度增加，已經(jīng)持續(xù)數(shù)十年的全球變暖趨勢仍很有可能延續(xù)下去。

本專題得到專家趙宗慈教授（清華大學(xué)）、沈永平（中國科學(xué)院西北生態(tài)環(huán)境資源研究院）的大力支持。

·熱點數(shù)據(jù)排行·

截至 2016年 11月 7日，中國知網(wǎng)（CNKI）和Web of Science（WOS）的數(shù)據(jù)報告顯示，以“全球變暖”為詞條可以檢索到的期刊文獻分別為 8032、 18849條，本專題將相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)按照：研究機構(gòu)發(fā)文數(shù)、作者發(fā)文數(shù)、期刊發(fā)文數(shù)、被引用頻次進行排行，結(jié)果如下。

研究機構(gòu)發(fā)文數(shù)量排名（CNKI）

研究機構(gòu)發(fā)文數(shù)量排名（WOS）

作者發(fā)文數(shù)量排名（CNKI）

作者發(fā)文數(shù)量排名（WOS）

期刊發(fā)文數(shù)量排名（CNKI）

期刊發(fā)文數(shù)量排名（WOS）

根據(jù)中國知網(wǎng)（CNKI）數(shù)據(jù)報告，以“全球變暖”等為詞條可以檢索到的高被引論文排行結(jié)果如下。

國內(nèi)數(shù)據(jù)庫高被引論文排行

國內(nèi)數(shù)據(jù)庫高被引論文排行（續(xù)表）

根據(jù)Web of Science統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)，以“全球變暖”等為詞條可以檢索到的高被引論文排行結(jié)果如下。

國外數(shù)據(jù)庫高被引論文排行

·經(jīng)典文獻推薦·

基于Web of Science檢索結(jié)果，利用Histcite軟件選取LCS（Local Citation Score，本地引用次數(shù)）TOP 50文獻作為節(jié)點進行分析，得到本領(lǐng)域推薦的經(jīng)典文獻如下。

A global assessment of the potential impact of climate change on world food supply suggests that doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration will lead to only a small decrease in global crop production. But developing countries are likely to bear the brunt of the problem, and simulations of the effect of adaptive measures by farmers imply that these will do little to reduce the disparity between developed and developing countries.

來源出版物：Nature, 1994, 367(6459): 133-138

Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming

Davis, AJ; Jenkinson, LS; Lawton, JH; et al.

Abstract: Many attempts to predict the biotic responses to climate change rely on the ‘climate envelope’approach, in which the current distribution of a species is mapped in climate-space and then, if the position of that climate-space changes, the distribution of the species is predicted to shift accordingly. The flaw in this approach is that distributions of species also reflect the influence of interactions with other species, so predictions based on climate envelopes may be very misleading if the interactions between species are altered by climate change. An additional problem is that current distributions may be the result of sources and sinks, in which species appear to thrive in places where they really persist only because individuals disperse into them from elsewhere. Here we use microcosm experiments on simple but realistic assemblages to show how misleading the climate envelope approach can be. We show that dispersal and interactions, which are important elements of population dynamics, must be included in predictions of biotic responses to climate change.

來源出版物：Nature, 1998, 391(6669): 783-786

Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants

Root, TL; Price, JT; Hall, KR; et al.

Abstract: Over the past 100 years, the global average temperature has increased by approximately 0.6°C and is projected to continue to rise at a rapid rate. Although species have responded to climatic changes throughout their evolutionary history, a primary concern for wild species and their ecosystems is this rapid rate of change. We gathered information on species and global warming from 143 studies for our meta-analyses. These analyses reveal a consistent temperature-related shift, or‘fingerprint’, in species ranging from molluscs to mammals and from grasses to trees. Indeed, more than 80% of the species that show changes are shifting in the direction expected on the basis of known physiological constraints of species. Consequently, the balance of evidence from these studies strongly suggests that a significant impact of global warming is already discernible in animal and plant

populations. The synergism of rapid temperature rise and other stresses, in particular habitat destruction, could easily disrupt the connectedness among species and lead to a reformulation of species communities, reflecting differential changes in species, and to numerous extirpations and possibly extinctions.

來源出版物：Nature, 2003, 421(6918): 57-60

A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

Parmesan, C; Yohe, G

Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a “systematic trend”. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global metaanalyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multispecies data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates “very high confidence” (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.

來源出版物：Nature, 2003, 421(6918): 37-42

Extinction risk from climate change

Thomas, CD; Cameron, A; Green, RE; et al.

Abstract: Climate change over the past similar to 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species’distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth’s terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a powerlaw relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15%-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be ‘committed to extinction’. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (similar to 18%) than mid-range (similar to 24%) and maximum-change (similar to 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.

來源出版物：Nature, 2004, 427(6970): 145-148

·推薦綜述·

全球變暖中的科學(xué)問題

趙宗慈，羅勇，王紹武，黃建斌

引言

全球變暖的問題越來越受到國內(nèi)外的關(guān)注，2013年9月各國政府間氣候變化專門委員會（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change，IPCC）發(fā)布了第一工作組的第五次科學(xué)評估報告，2014年陸續(xù)發(fā)布了第二和第三工作組的第五次氣候變化影響與對策的評估報告，9月發(fā)布第五次評估報告的綜合報告。在IPCC的第五次評估報告中繼續(xù)明確指出，1880—2012 年觀測的全球年平均表面溫度（包括陸地和海洋）變暖線性趨勢為133 a增暖了 0.85℃（0.65～1.06℃）；自 20世紀(jì)中期以來觀測到的變暖極可能是（95%～100%）由人類影響造成的，利用地球系統(tǒng)模式考慮未來溫室氣體等繼續(xù)排放，將引起進一步的增暖及氣候系統(tǒng)的所有分量的進一步變化。由于涉及全球變暖的科學(xué)問題較多，如多套全球氣溫觀測資料的差異、不同標(biāo)準(zhǔn)氣候態(tài)時段的作用、20世紀(jì)全球變暖的檢測和歸因及未來全球氣溫變化的趨勢等，本文對上述幾個問題進行綜述研究，為未來氣候變化的進一步深入研究提供參考。

1 全球變暖中的科學(xué)問題

1.1 多套全球氣溫觀測資料的差異

以全球陸地表面氣溫的觀測資料為例，IPCC報告經(jīng)常評估的全球年平均陸地表面氣溫的觀測資料主要來自英國東英吉利亞大學(xué)氣候研究所（Climate Research Unit，East Anglia University，UK，CRUTEM4）、全球歷史氣候網(wǎng)絡(luò)（Global Historical Climatology Network，GHCN v3）、美國高達(dá)空間研究所（Goddard Institute of Space Studies，GISS）和一個新的在美國伯克利的資料組（New Data Group at Berkeley，Berkeley）。4套觀測資料計算的5個常用時段全球年平均表面氣溫的變化趨勢和90%信度水平一致表明，近百年全球氣候變暖，尤以近50 a變暖明顯，而自1979年以來變暖最明顯；4套觀測資料年平均氣溫的線性趨勢略有差異，氣候傾向率約為0.01～0.02℃/10 a；4套觀測資料逐年觀測值的差異較大，年平均氣溫差異最大可達(dá) 0.2～0.3℃。4套觀測資料存在的差異主要是由于觀測臺站的選取、缺測資料的插補、計算全球平均氣溫的方法及早期缺乏觀測臺站的處理方法等原因造成的。因此，未來的研究需進一步“統(tǒng)一”和一致化全球氣溫觀測資料，以縮小觀測資料間的差異，從而提高觀測資料的質(zhì)量。

1.2 不同標(biāo)準(zhǔn)氣候態(tài)時段的平均氣溫差異

隨著觀測資料的不斷累積和增長，選取不同時段作為參考的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)氣候態(tài)，其平均溫度不同。以各國科學(xué)家經(jīng)常使用的英國東英吉利亞大學(xué)氣候研究所創(chuàng)建的全球陸地年平均氣溫觀測資料為例，計算不同時段氣候態(tài)之間的差異，IPCC多次報告一般以1961—1990年30 a作為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)氣候態(tài)時段，IPCC第一次評估報告以1951—1980年30 a作為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)氣候態(tài)時段，其相對于1961—1990年全球年平均氣溫的差值為－0.11℃；世界氣象組織（World Meteorological Organization，WMO）在 2003年提出以1971—2000年30 a作為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)氣候態(tài)時段，其相對于1961—1990年全球年平均氣溫的差值為0.09℃；IPCC第五次評估報告以1986—2005年20 a作為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)氣候態(tài)時段，其相對于 1961—1990年全球年平均氣溫的差值為0.32℃；有研究采用資料的整個時間長度作為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)氣候態(tài)時段，如將 1850—2010年作為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)氣候態(tài)時段，其相對于 1961—1990年全球年平均氣溫的差值為－0.16℃；還有研究以1850—1900年或1986—2005年作為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)氣候態(tài)時段，兩者全球年平均氣溫的差值高達(dá)0.61℃。

綜上所述，當(dāng)研究氣候變化時需計算變化值（距平），即需考慮相對于哪個標(biāo)準(zhǔn)氣候態(tài)時段的氣候變化（距平）；也就是說，當(dāng)不同時段的氣候態(tài)被選擇作為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)氣候態(tài)，計算的氣候變化（距平）結(jié)果是不同的。因此，當(dāng)研究氣候變化時，必須要注意是相對于哪個氣候態(tài)時段的變化。

1.3 地球系統(tǒng)模式模擬的20世紀(jì)全球氣溫變化

第五次耦合模式對比計劃（The Coupled Modle Intercomparison Project Phase 5，CMIP 5）中36個地球系統(tǒng)模式及它們的集合平均模擬的 1871—2010年全球年平均表面氣溫距平，與相應(yīng)的 3套觀測資料（HadCRUT4、GISTEMP和MLOST）進行對比，計算相對于 1961—1990年標(biāo)準(zhǔn)氣候態(tài)時段的全球年平均地表氣溫距平的變化。結(jié)果表明，對 1961—1990年全球年平均氣溫的氣候態(tài)模擬值與觀測值進行對比，3套觀測資料的全球年平均氣溫為14.0℃；36個CMIP 5模式集合平均模擬的全球年平均氣溫為13.8℃，36個模式模擬的全球年平均氣溫的最低值為 12.6℃，最高值為15.3℃，其中27個模式（約占75%）模擬的全球年平均氣溫為 13.2～14.3℃，表明多數(shù)地球系統(tǒng)模式能較好的模擬標(biāo)準(zhǔn)氣候態(tài)時段的全球年平均溫度，但個別模式（約占25%）模擬值與觀測值差異較大。所有地球系統(tǒng)模式均可模擬出由于人類排放增加造成近百年全球溫度增加的主要特征，特別是造成近50 a全球明顯變暖的特征及主要火山爆發(fā)造成短期（幾年）的變冷（具有較高的可信度）。引起重視的是，絕大部分地球系統(tǒng)模式及它們的集合平均未模擬出近15 a全球年平均氣溫增暖減緩（停滯）的趨勢，而模擬出繼續(xù)明顯增暖的趨勢。有研究計算CMIP 5地球系統(tǒng)模式中的114個模式，有111個模式未模擬出近15 a變暖停滯的現(xiàn)象，造成模擬誤差（或偏差）的原因可能是，近15 a人為造成的全球溫室氣體的排放繼續(xù)增加，因此地球系統(tǒng)模式模擬的氣溫繼續(xù)明顯增暖，而CMIP 5模式未合理考慮自然強迫和地球系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部的反饋與相互作用的復(fù)雜過程。因此，CMIP 5模式目前還較難準(zhǔn)確的模擬氣溫的年代際變化特征。

1.4 預(yù)估未來全球平均氣溫

IPCC第五次評估報告指出，大量地球系統(tǒng)模式在考慮人類排放的 4種典型排放路徑（Representative Concentration Pathways，RCPs）下，預(yù)估21世紀(jì)全球年平均氣溫繼續(xù)變暖，但需強調(diào)以下幾個方面：（1）IPCC的五次評估報告利用不同氣候模式與不同的人類排放情景，均一致預(yù)估未來全球年平均氣溫繼續(xù)變暖，但增暖的幅度不同，第五次報告包括約200多個氣候模式考慮人類排放的各種情景與方案，如CO2加倍、CO2每年增加1%、IS92方案、溫室氣體增加、溫室氣體與硫酸鹽氣溶膠增加、SRES（排放情景特別報告，Special Report on Emission Scenarios）A1、SRES A2、SRES B1、SRES B2、SRES A1B、RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5、RCP 6.0和RCP 8.5等。綜合預(yù)估結(jié)果表明，至21世紀(jì)后期全球增溫的最佳預(yù)估值為 1.0～4.0℃，平均氣溫變化范圍為0.3～6.4℃，可見不同模式和方案的預(yù)估值最大相差達(dá)幾度。

（2）不同氣候模式考慮了未來不同人類排放情景，預(yù)估21世紀(jì)前50 a氣溫變暖的差異小于21世紀(jì)后期。CMIP 5中考慮了4種排放情景21個模式的集合平均預(yù)估值和5%～95%模式預(yù)估的平均氣溫可能范圍，21世紀(jì)中期（2046—2065年）全球變暖1.0～2.0℃，全球平均氣溫可能變化范圍為 0.4～2.6℃；但到 21世紀(jì)后期（2081—2100年）全球變暖1.0～3.7 ℃，全球平均氣溫可能變化范圍為 0.3～4.8℃，其不同排放情景的差值遠(yuǎn)大于21世紀(jì)中期。

（3）不同增暖閾值與未來出現(xiàn)時間的關(guān)系，CMIP 5模式在RCP不同排放情景下，相對于不同的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)氣候態(tài)時段（1850—1900年或1986—2005年），預(yù)估21世紀(jì)初期（2016—2035年）和中期（2046—2065年）全球年平均氣溫分別增暖1.0、1.5和2.0℃閾值時CMIP 5模式的百分?jǐn)?shù)。不論相對于1850—1900年還是1986—2005年標(biāo)準(zhǔn)氣候態(tài)，絕大多數(shù)模式在所有排放情景下均預(yù)估21世紀(jì)初期（2016—2035年）全球平均氣溫增暖將超過 1.0℃；相對于 1850—1900年或 1986—2005年標(biāo)準(zhǔn)氣候態(tài)時段所有模式在所有排放情景下，預(yù)估21世紀(jì)初期（2016—2035年）增暖均不超過2.0℃；除RCP 2.6情景，其他3種排放情景在2046—2065年，1/3以上模式預(yù)估全球地表平均氣溫增暖超過2.0℃（相對于 1850—1900年）；由于觀測的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)氣候態(tài)時段1986—2005年全球平均氣溫比標(biāo)準(zhǔn)氣候態(tài)時段 1850—1900年平均氣溫高0.61℃，因此預(yù)估21世紀(jì)初期或中期相對于后者（1850—1900標(biāo)準(zhǔn)氣候態(tài)時段），更易達(dá)到增暖閾值；相對于低排放情景，高排放情景如RCP 8.5更易達(dá)到增暖閾值。

2 結(jié)論與展望

（1）多套觀測資料分析一致表明，近百余年全球

變暖，但變暖的幅度和趨勢隨觀測資料的不同而略有差異，需進一步提高觀測資料的質(zhì)量。

（2）在研究全球變暖中選擇不同時段作為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)氣候態(tài)時段，需注意不同標(biāo)準(zhǔn)氣候態(tài)時段的平均氣溫差異較明顯，因此，計算得到的氣候變化數(shù)值也不同。

（3）CMIP 5氣候模式一致模擬出20世紀(jì)全球變暖的趨勢，但一些模式模擬的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)氣候態(tài)時段數(shù)值與觀測值差異較大，多數(shù)模式較難模擬出全球平均氣溫年代際變率，絕大多數(shù)模式未模擬出近15 a全球變暖減緩和停滯，由此提出氣候模式需進一步改善。

（4）CMIP 5氣候模式預(yù)估未來由于人類活動全球繼續(xù)變暖，但由于模式不同及未來排放情景不同，預(yù)估的變暖幅度差異較大及出現(xiàn) 2℃閾值的時間不同，再加上系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部變率的影響及自然外強迫作用，給未來氣候變化的預(yù)估帶來更大的困難。

（5）全球變暖研究中的幾個科學(xué)問題的提出，需提高全球近百年觀測資料的質(zhì)量，注意不同標(biāo)準(zhǔn)氣候態(tài)觀測平均值的差異對比；需研究近百年全球變暖趨勢下的年代際變率的原因和改善模式模擬，進一步研究近15 a全球變暖停滯的原因和修正模式的模擬結(jié)果；在未來氣溫走向的預(yù)測與預(yù)估中，如何更好的設(shè)計人類排放方案，如何考慮自然與人類外強迫的聯(lián)合作用，如何更全面認(rèn)識氣候系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部的相互作用和反饋機制，并在氣候模式中進行相應(yīng)的改進與完善等，均需進行深入探究。?

【作者單位：1. 西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)動物科技學(xué)院；1. 清華大學(xué)地球系統(tǒng)科學(xué)研究中心；2. 中國氣象局氣候研究開放實驗室；3. 北京大學(xué)物理學(xué)院大氣海洋系】

（摘自《氣象與環(huán)境學(xué)報》2015年1期）

·高被引論文摘要·

被引頻次：1252

氣候變化國家評估報告（I）：中國氣候變化的歷史和未來趨勢

丁一匯，任國玉，石廣玉，等

中國的氣候變化與全球變化有相當(dāng)?shù)囊恢滦?，但也存在明顯差別。在全球變暖背景下，近100 a來中國年平均地表氣溫明顯增加，升溫幅度比同期全球平均值略高。近100 a和近50 a的降水量變化趨勢不明顯，但1956年以來出現(xiàn)了微弱增加的趨勢。近50 a來中國主要極端天氣氣候事件的頻率和強度也出現(xiàn)了明顯的變化。研究表明，中國的CO2年排放量呈不斷增加趨勢，溫室氣體正輻射強迫的總和是造成氣候變暖的主要原因。對21世紀(jì)氣候變化趨勢做出的預(yù)測表明：未來20～100 a，中國地表氣溫增加明顯，降水量也呈增加趨勢。

中國氣候變化；極端事件；溫室氣體；氣溶膠；輻射強迫；氣候預(yù)估

來源出版物：氣候變化研究進展, 2006, 2(1): 3-8

被引頻次：665

氣候變化科學(xué)的最新認(rèn)知

秦大河，陳振林，羅勇，等

摘要：政府間氣候變化專門委員會（IPCC）第一工作組于2007年2月2日發(fā)布的第四次評估報告明確指出，近100 a（1906—2005年）地球表面平均溫度上升了0.74℃，近50 a的線性增溫速率為0.13℃/10 a，1850年以來最暖的12個年份中有11個出現(xiàn)在近期的1995—2006年。全球變暖已經(jīng)是不爭的科學(xué)事實，報告認(rèn)為人類活動是近50 a全球氣候系統(tǒng)變暖的主要原因。IPCC評估報告是國際科學(xué)界對氣候變化問題最權(quán)威、最全面的認(rèn)識，代表了目前全球氣候變化研究的科學(xué)認(rèn)識水平，是國際上制定相關(guān)政策的重要依據(jù)。

關(guān)鍵詞：氣候變化；IPCC第一工作組；第四次評估報告

來源出版物：氣候變化研究進展, 2007, 3(2): 63-73

被引頻次：481

中國近80年來氣候變化特征及其形成機制

陳隆勛，周秀驥，李維亮，等

摘要：自20世紀(jì)20年代以來，中國地區(qū)40和90年代出現(xiàn)了2個暖期及50—60年代相對冷期。最近的90年代的最暖年（1998年）或5 a滑動平均氣溫幾乎已達(dá)或略高于40年代的最暖年（1946年）或5 a滑動平均氣溫。變暖最明顯是北方地區(qū)（黑龍江和新疆北部），而35°N以南和100°E以東地區(qū)自50年代以來存在一個以四川盆地為中心的變冷帶，雖然90年代有變暖趨勢，但基本達(dá)到40年代暖期氣溫。中國降水則以20年代為最少（1929年最少），50年代為多水年代，以后緩慢減少，70年代以后變化不大，但多雨帶在80年代及以后由華北南移到長江中下游。1951—1990年，大部分地區(qū)氣溫和降水呈負(fù)相關(guān)，在東北和長江—黃河間存在2個負(fù)相關(guān)中心，表明北方是變暖變旱，江淮間是變冷變濕。這些氣候變化特征和全球氣候變化相比較，除北方外，變暖期明顯的滯后于全球變暖，并且出現(xiàn)變冷帶等明顯差異。文中還綜述了用診斷和數(shù)值模擬方法對影響中國變化的氣候自然變化和人類活動影響（熱島效應(yīng)和氣溶膠影響）的研究結(jié)果。我們認(rèn)為，以上提出的3種人類活動對中國氣候變化有明顯影響，特別是工農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展造成的氣溶膠增加是四川盆地氣溫變冷的主要原因。

關(guān)鍵詞：中國氣候變化；熱島效應(yīng)；溫室效應(yīng)；氣溶膠影響

來源出版物：氣象學(xué)報, 2004, 62(5): 634-646

被引頻次：456

近54年中國地面氣溫變化

任國玉，徐銘志，初子瑩，等

摘要：采用國家基準(zhǔn)氣候站和基本氣象站地面月平均氣溫資料，在嚴(yán)格質(zhì)量控制和非均一性訂正的基礎(chǔ)上，分析了1951年以來中國大陸地區(qū)近地表年和季節(jié)平均氣溫演化的時間與空間特征。結(jié)果表明，我國近54年來年平均地表氣溫變暖幅度約為1.3℃，增溫速率接近0.25℃/10 a，比全球或半球同期平均增溫速率高得多。全國大范圍增暖主要發(fā)生在近20余年。氣溫變化的季節(jié)差異和空間特征與前人分析結(jié)論基本一致，冬季增溫速率高達(dá)0.39℃/10 a，春季為0.28℃/10 a，秋季0.20℃/10 a，夏季增溫速率最小，但也達(dá)到0.15℃/10 a。我國20世紀(jì)80年代初期開始的明顯增暖主要表現(xiàn)在冷季，但進入90年代以來夏季增暖也日趨明顯。從區(qū)域上看，中國大陸

地區(qū)最明顯的增溫發(fā)生在北方和青藏高原地區(qū)，而西南的四川盆地和云貴高原北部仍維持弱的降溫趨勢。值得提出的是，作者給出的結(jié)果尚未考慮城鎮(zhèn)化對地面氣溫觀測記錄的影響。

關(guān)鍵詞：地面氣溫；氣候變化；全球變暖；區(qū)域氣候

來源出版物：氣候與環(huán)境研究, 2005 (4): 21-31

被引頻次：445

森林凋落物動態(tài)及其對全球變暖的響應(yīng)

彭少麟，劉強

摘要：綜述了森林凋落物研究的進展，森林凋落物動態(tài)的研究隨研究方法的改進而不斷深化。制約凋落物分解速率的因素有內(nèi)在因素即凋落物自身的化學(xué)物理性質(zhì)和外在因素即凋落物分解過程發(fā)生的外部環(huán)境條件，如參與分解的異養(yǎng)微生物和土壤動物群落的種類、數(shù)量、活性（生物類因素）和氣候、土壤、大氣成分等（非生物類因素）。討論了全球變暖可能引起的凋落物量和凋落物分解的變化。氣溫上升可能引發(fā)植被分布、物候特征和制約凋落物分解因素的改變，影響森林凋落物動態(tài)，最終影響森林生態(tài)系統(tǒng)物質(zhì)循環(huán)的功能。

關(guān)鍵詞：森林凋落物動態(tài)；凋落物分解速率；全球變暖；響應(yīng)

來源出版物：生態(tài)學(xué)報, 2002, 22(9): 1534-1544

被引頻次：380

中國氣候與環(huán)境演變評估（I）：中國氣候與環(huán)境變化及未來趨勢

秦大河，丁一匯，蘇紀(jì)蘭，等

摘要：近百年來，全球氣候正經(jīng)歷著一次以變暖為主要特征的顯著變化，全球氣候與環(huán)境的重大變化對中國的氣候與環(huán)境演變也產(chǎn)生了重大影響。來自氣候、環(huán)境、海洋和經(jīng)濟社會科學(xué)等領(lǐng)域的百余位專家和學(xué)者對中國氣候與環(huán)境的演變及其對自然生態(tài)系統(tǒng)和社會經(jīng)濟部門的影響進行了評估，在此基礎(chǔ)上，提出了適應(yīng)和減緩氣候變化的對策。本文主要闡述在全球氣候變化背景下中國氣候與環(huán)境的演變，并對未來氣候變化的趨勢做出了預(yù)測。

關(guān)鍵詞：氣候變化；環(huán)境演變；未來趨勢；中國

來源出版物：氣候變化研究進展, 2005, 1(1): 4-9

被引頻次：359

氣候變化科學(xué)的最新進展：IPCC第四次評估綜合報告解析

秦大河，羅勇，陳振林，等

摘要：政府間氣候變化專門委員會（IPCC）第四次評估報告綜合報告于2007年11月17日在西班牙正式發(fā)布。綜合報告將溫室氣體排放、大氣溫室氣體濃度與地球表面溫度直接聯(lián)系起來，綜合評估了氣候變化科學(xué)、氣候變化的影響和應(yīng)對措施的最新研究進展。綜合報告指出：控制溫室氣體排放量的行動刻不容緩；能否減小全球變暖所帶來的負(fù)面影響，將在很大程度上取決于人類在今后二三十年中在削減溫室氣體排放方面所作的努力和投資。這對國際社會和各國政府制定經(jīng)濟社會發(fā)展政策，適應(yīng)和減緩氣候變化有一定的指導(dǎo)和促進作用。

關(guān)鍵詞：氣候變化；IPCC第四次評估報告；綜合報告

來源出版物：氣候變化研究進展, 2007, 3(6): 311-314

被引頻次：350

全球氣候變化下中國農(nóng)業(yè)的脆弱性與適應(yīng)對策

蔡運龍

摘要：全球氣候變化問題雖然還存在某些不確定性，但已得到廣泛認(rèn)同。對氣候條件頗為敏感的農(nóng)業(yè)將受影響，主要效應(yīng)可概括為：① 農(nóng)業(yè)地理限制的變動；② 作物產(chǎn)量的變化；③ 對農(nóng)業(yè)系統(tǒng)的沖擊。中國農(nóng)業(yè)對氣候變化與波動尤其敏感，加之人口壓力進一步加大和農(nóng)業(yè)資源已很緊缺，糧食自給的能力將受到嚴(yán)重威脅，必須充分重視適應(yīng)和調(diào)整對策的研究。變動性與不確定性是氣候的固有特征，在評價全球氣候變化對農(nóng)業(yè)的影響時應(yīng)該認(rèn)識到這點。本文還提出了減少農(nóng)業(yè)對氣候變化脆弱性的建議。

關(guān)鍵詞：氣候變化與波動；農(nóng)業(yè)影響；中國農(nóng)業(yè)；適應(yīng)對策

來源出版物：地理學(xué)報, 1996 (3): 202-212

被引頻次：291

近百年全球氣候變暖的分析

王紹武，葉瑾琳

摘要：本文對比分析了IPCC，Vinnikov，Jones及Hansen的北半球，南半球及全球共2個地面溫度序列，以及中

國的氣溫序列。資料為1880—1991年。近百年氣候變暖的速度為0.5℃/100 a。溫度的長期變化趨勢占序列總方差60%以上。但氣候變暖有突變性，在1890年代中，1920年代中及1970年代末有3次突然氣候變暖。分析表明，總的變暖趨勢CO2濃度及太陽活動有密切關(guān)系?；鹕交顒右部赡苡幸欢ㄗ饔谩５皟纱瓮蝗蛔兣赡芘c火山活動沉寂有關(guān)。最后一次突然變暖則可能是溫室效應(yīng)加劇的結(jié)果。

關(guān)鍵詞：氣候變暖；氣候突變；溫室效應(yīng)

來源出版物：大氣科學(xué), 1995, 19(5): 545-553

被引頻次：237

1951—2003年中國氣溫和降水變化及其對干旱的影響

翟盤茂，鄒旭愷

摘要：利用1951—2003年606個臺站的氣象觀測資料，對中國53 a來的氣候變化和干旱特征進行了分析。結(jié)果表明：我國的干旱面積在氣候變暖背景下總體上趨于增加，但變化趨勢不顯著。干旱變化的區(qū)域差異較大，東北、華北和西北東部干旱呈顯著增加的趨勢。降水量是我國干旱變化的最主要的因素。

關(guān)鍵詞：中國；氣候變化；降水；氣溫；干旱

來源出版物：氣候變化研究進展, 2005 (1): 16-18

被引頻次：3775

A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

Parmesan, C; Yohe, G

Abstract: Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a “systematic trend”. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial ‘signswitching’ responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/ large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates “very high confidence” (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.

來源出版物：Nature, 2003, 421(6918): 37-42

被引頻次：2789

Extinction risk from climate change

Thomas, CD; Cameron, A; Green, RE; et al.

Abstract: Climate change over the past similar to 30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species’distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth’s terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a powerlaw relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15%-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (similar to 18%) than mid-range (similar to 24%) and maximum-change (similar to 35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.

來源出版物：Nature, 2004, 427(6970): 145-148

被引頻次：2016

Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants

Root, TL; Price, JT; Hall, KR; et al.

Abstract: Over the past 100 years, the global average temperature has increased by approximately 0.6 degreesC and is projected to continue to rise at a rapid rate. Although species have responded to climatic changes throughout their evolutionary history, a primary concern for wild

species and their ecosystems is this rapid rate of change. We gathered information on species and global warming from 143 studies for our meta-analyses. These analyses reveal a consistent temperature-related shift, or‘fingerprint’, in species ranging from molluscs to mammals and from grasses to trees. Indeed, more than 80% of the species that show changes are shifting in the direction expected on the basis of known physiological constraints of species. Consequently, the balance of evidence from these studies strongly suggests that a significant impact of global warming is already discernible in animal and plant populations. The synergism of rapid temperature rise and other stresses, in particular habitat destruction, could easily disrupt the connectedness among species and lead to a reformulation of species communities, reflecting differential changes in species, and to numerous extirpations and possibly extinctions.

來源出版物：Nature, 2003, 421(6918): 57-60

被引頻次：1741

Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model

Cox, PM; Betts, RA; Jones, CD; et al.

Abstract: The continued increase in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide due to anthropogenic emissions is predicted to lead to significant changes in climate. About half of the current emissions are being absorbed by the ocean and by land ecosystems, but this absorption is sensitive to climate as well as to atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, creating a feedback loop. General circulation models have generally excluded the feedback between climate and the biosphere, using static vegetation distributions and CO2concentrations from simple carbon-cycle models that do not include climate change. Here we present results from a fully coupled, three-dimensional carbon–climate model, indicating that carbon-cycle feedbacks could significantly accelerate climate change over the twenty-first century. We find that under a “business as usual” scenario, the terrestrial biosphere acts as an overall carbon sink until about 2050, but turns into a source thereafter. By 2100, the ocean uptake rate of 5 Gt C yr-1is balanced by the terrestrial carbon source, and atmospheric CO2concentrations are 250 p.p.m.v. higher in our fully coupled simulation than in uncoupled carbon models2, resulting in a global-mean warming of 5.5 K, as compared to 4

K without the carbon-cycle feedback.

來源出版物：Nature, 2000, 408(6809): 184-187

被引頻次：1487

The WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset - A new era in climate change research

Meehl, GA; Covey, C; Delworth, T; et al.

Abstract: A coordinated set of global coupled climate model [atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (AOGCM)] experiments for twentieth- and twenty-first-century climate, as well as several climate change commitment and other experiments, was run by 16 modeling groups from 11 countries with 23 models for assessment in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Since the assessment was completed, output from another model has been added to the dataset, so the participation is now 17 groups from 12 countries with 24 models. This effort, as well as the subsequent analysis phase, was organized by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Working Group on Coupled Models (WGCM) Climate Simulation Panel, and constitutes the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). The dataset is called the WCRP CMIP3 multimodel dataset, and represents the largest and most comprehensive international global coupled climate model experiment and multimodel analysis effort ever attempted. As of March 2007, the Program for Climate Model Diagnostics and Intercomparison (PCMDI) has collected, archived, and served roughly 32 TB of model data. With oversight from the panel, the multimodel data were made openly available from PCMDI for analysis and academic applications. Over 171 TB of data had been downloaded among the more than 1000 registered users to date. Over 200 journal articles, based in part on the dataset, have been published so far. Though initially aimed at the IPCC AR4, this unique and valuable resource will continue to be maintained for at least the next several years. Never before has such an extensive set of climate model simulations been made available to the international climate science community for study. The ready access to the multimodel dataset opens up these types of model

analyses to researchers, including students, who previously could not obtain state-of-the-art climate model output, and thus represents a new era in climate change research. As a direct consequence, these ongoing studies are increasing the body of knowledge regarding our understanding of how the climate system currently works, and how it may change in the future.

來源出版物： Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2007, 88: 1383-1394

被引頻次：1476

Soil carbon sequestration impacts on global climate changeand food security

Lal, R

Abstract: The carbon sink capacity of the world's agricultural and degraded soils is 50% to 66% of the historic carbon loss of 42 to 78 gigatons of carbon. The rate of soil organic carbon sequestration with adoption of recommended technologies depends on soil texture and structure, rainfall, temperature, farming system, and soil management. Strategies to increase the soil carbon pool include soil restoration and woodland regeneration, no-till farming, cover crops, nutrient management, manuring and sludge application, improved grazing, water conservation and harvesting, efficient irrigation, agroforestry practices, and growing energy crops on spare lands. An increase of 1 ton of soil carbon pool of degraded cropland soils may increase crop yield by 20 to 40 kilograms per hectare (kg/ha) for wheat, 10 to 20 kg/ha for maize, and 0.5 to 1 kg/ha for cowpeas. As well as enhancing food security, carbon sequestration has the potential to offset fossilfuel emissions by 0.4 to 1.2 gigatons of carbon per year, or 5% to 15% of the global fossil-fuel emissions.

來源出版物：Science, 2004, 304(5677): 1623-1627

被引頻次：1428

A global overview of drought and heat-induced tree mortality reveals emerging climate change risks for forests

Allen, CD; Macalady, AK; Chenchouni, H; et al.

Abstract: Greenhouse gas emissions have significantly altered global climate, and will continue to do so in the future. Increases in the frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress associated with climate change could fundamentally alter the composition, structure, and biogeography of forests in many regions. Of particular concern are potential increases in tree mortality associated with climate-induced physiological stress and interactions with other climate-mediated processes such as insect outbreaks and wildfire. Despite this risk, existing projections of tree mortality are based on models that lack functionally realistic mortality mechanisms, and there has been no attempt to track observations of climate-driven tree mortality globally. Here we present the first global assessment of recent tree mortality attributed to drought and heat stress. Although episodic mortality occurs in the absence of climate change, studies compiled here suggest that at least some of the world’s forested ecosystems already may be responding to climate change and raise concern that forests may become increasingly vulnerable to higher background tree mortality rates and die-off in response to future warming and drought, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited. This further suggests risks to ecosystem services, including the loss of sequestered forest carbon and associated atmospheric feedbacks. Our review also identifies key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to predict tree mortality in response to climate change and emphasizes the need for a globally coordinated observation system. Overall, our review reveals the potential for amplified tree mortality due to drought and heat in forests worldwide.

來源出版物：Forest Ecology and Management, 2010, 259(4): 660-684

被引頻次：1401

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment

Moss, RH; Edmonds, JA; Hibbard, KA; et al.

Abstract: Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth’s climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential

consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.

來源出版物：Nature, 2010, 463(7282): 747-756

被引頻次：1311

Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming

Held, IM; Soden, BJ

Abstract: Using the climate change experiments generated for the Fourth Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this study examines some aspects of the changes in the hydrological cycle that are robust across the models. These responses include the decrease in convective mass fluxes, the increase in horizontal moisture transport, the associated enhancement of the pattern of evaporation minus precipitation and its temporal variance, and the decrease in the horizontal sensible heat transport in the extratropics. A surprising finding is that a robust decrease in extratropical sensible heat transport is found only in the equilibrium climate response, as estimated in slab ocean responses to the doubling of CO2, and not in transient climate change scenarios. All of these robust responses are consequences of the increase in lowertropospheric water vapor.

來源出版物：Journal of Climate, 2006, 19(21): 5686-5699

被引頻次：1220

Global water resources: Vulnerability from climate change and population growth

Vorosmarty, CJ; Green, P; Salisbury, J; et al.

Abstract: The future adequacy of freshwater resources is difficult to assess, owing to a complex and rapidly changing geography of water supply and use. Numerical experiments combining climate model outputs, water budgets, and socioeconomic information along digitized river networks demonstrate that (i) a large proportion of the world's population is currently experiencing water stress and (ii) rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in defining the state of global water systems to 2025. Consideration of direct human impacts on global water supply remains a poorly articulated but potentially important facet of the larger global change question.

來源出版物：Science, 2000, 289(5477): 284-288

·推薦論文摘要·

1979—2014年全球變暖背景下青藏高原氣候變化特征

段安民，肖志祥，吳國雄

摘要：近幾十年來全球變暖受到越來越廣泛的關(guān)注，然而全球變暖從1998年開始趨緩，但青藏高原卻呈現(xiàn)加速增暖的趨勢。本文基于前人研究，系統(tǒng)回顧了青藏高原氣溫、積雪、降水和大氣熱源等四方面在全球變暖背景下的變化，指出高原的加速增溫導(dǎo)致了積雪迅速融化，降水明顯增多的同時，高原熱源卻呈現(xiàn)減弱趨勢。

關(guān)鍵詞：全球變暖；青藏高原；氣候變化；加速

來源出版物：氣候變化研究進展, 2016, 12(5): 374-381

聯(lián)系郵箱：段安民，amduan@lasg.iap.ac.cn

全球變暖背景下青藏高原氣溫變化的新特征

鄭然，李棟梁，蔣元春

摘要：利用1971—2011年青藏高原81個站點經(jīng)均一化處理的氣溫資料，采用面積權(quán)重方法對青藏高原近41年氣溫變化的特征進行了研究。結(jié)果表明，青藏高原在1997年存在更為明顯的增暖突變，落后于華北（1989年）、東北（1987年）8～10年，比西南、華南（1996年）和華東、西北（1994年）落后1～3年。高原內(nèi)部的突變發(fā)生過程與高原地形有明顯的關(guān)系，表現(xiàn)為海拔越高，突變發(fā)生越晚。此外，突變前后的增暖形式也存在一定的差別，即突變前增暖幅度隨海拔的升高而減小，突變后則表現(xiàn)為海拔越高氣溫傾向率越大，且通過了99%的顯著性檢驗。突變前后高原增暖幅度最大均在冬季，突變后秋、冬季增暖幅度有所減小，夏季有所增大。相比全球近15年增暖趨緩現(xiàn)象，高原在突變后表現(xiàn)為更大幅度的增暖，高原氣溫與全球氣溫的同期波動形態(tài)相似，兩者具有較好相關(guān)性。

關(guān)鍵詞：青藏高原；氣溫；面積權(quán)重；M-K檢驗；海拔

來源出版物：高原氣象, 2015, 34: 1531-1539

聯(lián)系郵箱：李棟梁，lidl@nuist.edu.cn

全球變暖中的科學(xué)問題

趙宗慈，羅勇，王紹武，等

摘要：2013年各國政府間氣候變化專門委員會（IPCC）第一工作組發(fā)布了第五次氣候變化科學(xué)評估報告，以大量的觀測分析和氣候模式模擬證據(jù)，繼續(xù)強調(diào)由于人類排放增加，全球正在變暖，未來將繼續(xù)變暖的觀點。本文綜述分析全球變暖的幾個深層次的科學(xué)問題，即多套全球氣溫觀測資料的差異、不同標(biāo)準(zhǔn)氣候態(tài)時段的作用、20世紀(jì)全球變暖的檢測和歸因及未來全球氣溫變化的趨勢，以此提出需進一步研究的科學(xué)問題。結(jié)果表明：需要進一步提高觀測資料的質(zhì)量；注意不同標(biāo)準(zhǔn)氣候態(tài)時段對應(yīng)數(shù)值的不同；應(yīng)進一步改善氣候模式模擬年代際變率的能力及研究近15 a全球變暖減緩和停滯的原因，從而改善氣候模式的模擬效果；造成預(yù)估未來全球氣候變化的不確定性主要來自氣候模式的差異、未來排放情景的差異及氣候系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部變率的影響和自然外強迫的作用。

關(guān)鍵詞：全球變暖；科學(xué)問題；IPCC

來源出版物：氣象與環(huán)境學(xué)報, 2015, 31(1): 1-5

聯(lián)系郵箱：趙宗慈，zhaozongci@ tsinghua.edu.cn

全球氣候變化談判的回顧與展望

萬怡挺，常捷

摘要：近幾十年以來全球正在經(jīng)歷以全球變暖為突出標(biāo)志的氣候變化?！堵?lián)合國氣候變化框架公約》和《京都議定書》的簽訂是全球氣候變化的里程碑。全球溫室氣體規(guī)制形成及其后續(xù)談判的過程可以看出，全球氣候變化問題的日益突出導(dǎo)致了全球溫室氣體國際規(guī)制的逐步趨嚴(yán)。隨著溫室氣體國際規(guī)制的趨嚴(yán)，溫室氣體的排放權(quán)不再是一項免費的公共資源。這已經(jīng)成為具有全球共識的大趨勢，也是全球經(jīng)濟發(fā)展中的一個重大新變量，將對全球各國自身的溫室氣體規(guī)制和經(jīng)濟發(fā)展產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)的影響。2015年是全球氣候變化談判的關(guān)鍵一年，各方為取得談判成功正在加大協(xié)調(diào)和準(zhǔn)備的努力。

關(guān)鍵詞：全球氣候變化談判；回顧；展望

來源出版物：環(huán)境與可持續(xù)發(fā)展, 2015, 40(2): 30-32

中國歷史時期氣候變化影響及其應(yīng)對的啟示

葛全勝，方修琦，鄭景云

摘要：氣候變化的社會影響是當(dāng)前全球變暖影響研究的

一個重要領(lǐng)域。以古鑒今，歷史上應(yīng)對氣候變化的經(jīng)驗和教訓(xùn)可以為現(xiàn)代人類應(yīng)對以全球變暖為突出標(biāo)志的氣候變化挑戰(zhàn)提供寶貴的借鑒?？偨Y(jié)中國歷史氣候變化對社會影響研究領(lǐng)域的成果，歸納得到了歷史時期氣候變化對中國社會發(fā)展影響的若干認(rèn)識及其對適應(yīng)未來氣候變化的啟示。主要結(jié)論是：歷史氣候變化影響的總體特征是“冷抑暖揚”，但影響與響應(yīng)存在區(qū)域差異；社會經(jīng)濟的衰落與百年尺度的氣候由暖轉(zhuǎn)冷呈現(xiàn)同期性，與暖期相伴的社會快速發(fā)展會增加社會對資源、環(huán)境需求的壓力，導(dǎo)致社會脆弱性加大；歷史上應(yīng)對氣候變化策略因時、因地、因主體而異；而以政府為主導(dǎo)的主動因地制宜適應(yīng)是應(yīng)對氣候變化的有效策略。

關(guān)鍵詞：歷史時期；氣候變化影響；中國

來源出版物：地球科學(xué)進展, 2014, 29(1): 23-29

聯(lián)系郵箱：葛全勝，geqs@igsnrr.ac.cn

氣候變化科學(xué)與人類可持續(xù)發(fā)展

秦大河

摘要：政府間氣候變化專門委員會（IPCC）自2007年發(fā)布第四次評估報告（AR4）以來，新的觀測證據(jù)進一步證明，全球氣候系統(tǒng)變暖是毋庸置疑的事實。2012年之前的3個連續(xù)10年的全球地表平均氣溫，都比1850年以來任何一個10年更高，且可能是過去1400年來最熱的30年。雖然1998—2012年全球地表增溫速率趨緩，但還不能反映出氣候變化的長期趨勢。1970年以來海洋在變暖，海洋上層75 m以上的海水溫度每10年升溫幅度超過0.11℃；1971—2010年地球氣候系統(tǒng)增加的凈能量中，93%被海洋吸收。全球平均海平面上升速率加快，1993—2010年間高達(dá)3.2 mm/年。全球海洋的人為碳庫很可能已增加，導(dǎo)致海洋表層水酸化。1971年以來，全球幾乎所有冰川、格陵蘭冰蓋和南極冰蓋的冰量都在損失。其中1979年以來北極海冰范圍以每10年3.5%～4.1%的速率縮小，同期南極海冰范圍以每10年1.2%～1.8%的速率增大。北半球積雪范圍在縮小。20世紀(jì)80年代初以來，大多數(shù)地區(qū)的多年凍土溫度升高。已在大氣和海洋變暖、水循環(huán)變化、冰凍圈退縮、海平面上升和極端氣候事件的變化中檢測到人類活動影響的信號。1750年以來大氣CO2濃度的增加是人為輻射強迫增加的主因，導(dǎo)致20世紀(jì)50年代以來50%以上的全球氣候變暖，其信度超過95%。采用CMIP5模式和典型濃度路徑（RCPs），預(yù)估本世紀(jì)末全球地表平均氣溫將繼續(xù)升高，熱浪、強降水等極端事件的發(fā)生頻率將增加，降水將呈現(xiàn)“干者愈干、濕者愈濕”趨勢。海洋上層的溫度比1986—2005年間升高0.6～2.0℃，熱量將從海表傳向深海，并影響大洋環(huán)流，2100年海平面將上升0.26～0.82 m。冰凍圈將繼續(xù)變暖。為控制氣候變暖，人類需要減少溫室氣體排放。如果較工業(yè)化之前的溫升達(dá)到2℃，全球年均經(jīng)濟損失將達(dá)到收入的0.2%～2.0%，并造成大范圍不可逆的影響，導(dǎo)致死亡、疾病、食品安全、內(nèi)陸洪澇、農(nóng)村飲水和灌溉困難等問題，影響人類安全。但如果采取積極行動，2℃的溫升目標(biāo)仍可望達(dá)到。為遏制逐漸失控的全球變暖，需全球共同努力減排，以實現(xiàn)人類可持續(xù)發(fā)展的理想。

關(guān)鍵詞：氣候變化；全球變暖；影響；適應(yīng)；脆弱性；減緩；可持續(xù)發(fā)展

來源出版物：地理科學(xué)進展, 2014, 33(7): 874-883

聯(lián)系郵箱：秦大河，qdh@cma.gov.cn

近50年來中國極端降水趨勢與物理成因研究綜述

高濤，謝立安

摘要：對中國近50年來極端降水事件的研究表明，在全球變暖背景下極端降水事件的頻率和強度均有升高的趨勢，但存在明顯的區(qū)域差異。觀測分析表明長江中下游，東南地區(qū)和西北的部分區(qū)域極端降水有增加趨勢，而華北、東北和西南的部分地區(qū)有減少趨勢?，F(xiàn)階段不同模式模擬的結(jié)果還存在差異，但總的預(yù)測結(jié)論表明中國極端降水有極化的趨勢。首先從統(tǒng)計學(xué)角度通過分析均值和極值的關(guān)系，探討了極端降水事件概念的界定，然后分析了不同區(qū)域極端降水的變化趨勢。在綜述中國極端降水研究的基礎(chǔ)上，以極端降水變化趨勢較為復(fù)雜的長江流域作為典型氣候區(qū)，從?！獨庀嗷プ饔媒嵌葘τ绊憳O端降水的物理機制和過程進行了總結(jié)。分析表明能夠反映極端降水本質(zhì)特性的定義和影響極端降水的物理過程還需要進一步研究，并且隨著研究深入，新的影響極端降水的因子也會被逐漸發(fā)現(xiàn)。

關(guān)鍵詞：極端降水事件；全球氣候變化；物理成因

來源出版物：地球科學(xué)進展, 2014, 29(5): 577-589

聯(lián)系郵箱：謝立安，xie@ncsu.edu

The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale

Arnell, NW; Gosling, SN

Abstract: This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5 × 0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flood-prone population and cropland exposed to substantial change in flood frequency, and a generalised measure of regional flood risk based on combining frequency curves with generic flood damage functions. Under one climate model, emissions and socioeconomic scenario (HadCM3 and SRES A1b), in 2050 the current 100-year flood would occur at least twice as frequently across 40% of the globe, approximately 450 million flood-prone people and 430 thousand km2of flood-prone cropland would be exposed to a doubling of flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase by approximately 187% over the risk in 2050 in the absence of climate change. There is strong regional variability (most adverse impacts would be in Asia), and considerable variability between climate models. In 2050, the range in increased exposure across 21 climate models under SRES A1b is 31–450 million people and 59 to 430 thousand km2of cropland, and the change in risk varies between -9 and +376%. The paper presents impacts by region, and also presents relationships between change in global mean surface temperature and impacts on the global flood hazard. There are a number of caveats with the analysis; it is based on one global hydrological model only, the climate scenarios are constructed using pattern-scaling, and the precise impacts are sensitive to some of the assumptions in the definition and application.

來源出版物：Climatic Change, 2016, 134(3): 387-401

聯(lián)系郵箱：Arnell, NW; n.w.arnell@reading.ac.uk

A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity

Gosling, SN; Arnell, NW

Abstract: This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and decreases in global water scarcity due to climate change. 1.6 (WCI) and 2.4 (WSI) billion people are estimated to be currently living within watersheds exposed to water scarcity. Using the WCI, by 2050 under the A1B scenario, 0.5 to 3.1 billion people are exposed to an increase in water scarcity due to climate change (range across 21 GCMs). This represents a higher upper-estimate than previous assessments because scenarios are constructed from a wider range of GCMs. A substantial proportion of the uncertainty in the global-scale effect of climate change on water scarcity is due to uncertainty in the estimates for South Asia and East Asia. Sensitivity to the WCI and WSI thresholds that define water scarcity can be comparable to the sensitivity to climate change pattern. More of the world will see an increase in exposure to water scarcity than a decrease due to climate change but this is not consistent across all climate change patterns. Additionally, investigation of the effects of a set of prescribed global mean temperature change scenarios show rapid increases in water scarcity due to climate change across many regions of the globe, up to 2°C, followed by stabilisation to 4°C.

來源出版物：Climatic Change, 2016, 134(3): 371-385

聯(lián)系郵箱：Gosling, SN; simon.gosling@nottingham.ac.uk

Impact of climate change and water use policies on hydropower potential in the south-eastern Alpine region

Majone, B; Villa, F; Deidda, R; et al.

Abstract: Climate change is expected to cause alterations of streamflow regimes in the Alpine region, with possible relevant consequences for several socio-economic sectors including hydropower production. The impact of climate change on water resources and hydropower production is evaluated with reference to the Noce catchment, which is located in the Southeastern Alps, Italy. Projected changes of precipitation and temperature, derived from an ensemble of 4 climate model (CM) runs for the period 2040–2070

under the SRES A1B emission scenario, have been downscaled and bias corrected before using them as climatic forcing in a hydrological model. Projections indicate an increase of the mean temperature of the catchment in the range 2–4 K, depending on the climate model used. Projections of precipitation indicate an increase of annual precipitation in the range between 2% and 6% with larger changes in winter and autumn. Hydrological simulations show an increase of water yield during the period 2040–2070 with respect to 1970–2000. Furthermore, a transition from glacio-nival to nival regime is projected for the catchment. Hydrological regime is expected to change as a consequence of less winter precipitation falling as snow and anticipated melting in spring, with the runoff peak decreasing in intensity and anticipating from July to June. Changes in water availability reflect in the Technical Hydropower Potential (THP) of the catchment, with larger changes projected for the hydropower plants located at the highest altitudes. Finally, the impacts on THP of water use policies such as the introduction of prescriptions for minimum ecological flow (MEF) have been analyzed. Simulations indicate that in the lower part of the catchment reduction of the hydropower production due to MEF releases from the storage reservoirs counterbalances the benefits associated to the projected increases of inflows as foreseen by simulations driven only by climate change.

關(guān)鍵詞：climate change impacts; alpine region; water use policies; water discharge alterations; hydropower potential

來源出版物：Science of the Total Environment, 2016, 543: 965-980

聯(lián)系郵箱：Majone, B; bruno.majone@unitn.it

Global fossil energy markets and climate change mitigation: An analysis with REMIND

Bauer, N; Mouratiadou, I; Luderer, G; et al.

Abstract: We analyze the dynamics of global fossil resource markets under different assumptions for the supply of fossil fuel resources, development pathways for energy demand, and climate policy settings. Resource markets, in particular the oil market, are characterized by a large discrepancy between costs of resource extraction and commodity prices on international markets. We explain this observation in terms of (a) the intertemporal scarcity rent, (b) regional price differentials arising from trade and transport costs, (c) heterogeneity and inertia in the extraction sector. These effects are captured by the REMIND model. We use the model to explore economic effects of changes in coal, oil and gas markets induced by climate-change mitigation policies. A large share of fossil fuel reserves and resources will be used in the absence of climate policy leading to atmospheric GHG concentrations well beyond a level of 550 ppm CO2-eq. This result holds independently of different assumptions about energy demand and fossil fuel availability. Achieving ambitious climate targets will drastically reduce fossil fuel consumption, in particular the consumption of coal. Conventional oil and gas as well as non-conventional oil reserves are still exhausted. We find the net present value of fossil fuel rent until 2100 at 30tril.US$ with a large share of oil and a small share of coal. This is reduced by 9 and 12tril.US$ to achieve climate stabilization at 550 and 450 ppm CO2-eq, respectively. This loss is, however, overcompensated by revenues from carbon pricing that are 21 and 32tril.US$, respectively. The overcompensation also holds under variations of energy demand and fossil fuel supply.

來源出版物：Climatic Change, 2016, 136(1): 69-82

聯(lián)系郵箱：Bauer, N; Nico.Bauer@pik-potsdam.de

The Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble project: A community resource for studying climate change in the presence of internal climate variability

Kay, JE; Deser, C; Phillips, A; et al.

Abstract: While internal climate variability is known to affect climate projections, its influence is often underappreciated and confused with model error. Why? In general, modeling centers contribute a small number of realizations to international climate model assessments [e.g., phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)]. As a result, model error and internal climate variability are difficult, and at times impossible, to disentangle. In response, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) community designed the CESM Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) with the explicit goal of enabling assessment of climate change in the presence of internal climate variability. All CESM-LE simulations use a single

CMIP5 model (CESM with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5). The core simulations replay the twenty to twenty-first century (1920–2100) 30 times under historical and representative concentration pathway 8.5 external forcing with small initial condition differences. Two companion 1000±yr-long preindustrial control simulations (fully coupled, prognostic atmosphere and land only) allow assessment of internal climate variability in the absence of climate change. Comprehensive outputs, including many daily fields, are available as singlevariable time series on the Earth System Grid for anyone to use. Early results demonstrate the substantial influence of internal climate variability on twentieth- to twenty-first-century climate trajectories. Global warming hiatus decades occur, similar to those recently observed. Internal climate variability alone can produce projection spread comparable to that in CMIP5. Scientists and stakeholders can use CESM-LE outputs to help interpret the observational record, to understand projection spread and to plan for a range of possible futures influenced by both internal climate variability and forced climate change.

關(guān)鍵詞：atmosphere-ocean interaction; walker circulation; sea surface temperature; thermocline circulation; albedo; paleoclimate

來源出版物：Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2015, 96(8): 1333-1349

聯(lián)系郵箱：Kay, JE; jennifer.e.kay@colorado.edu

The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2°C

McGlade, C; Ekins, P

Abstract: Policy makers have generally agreed that the average global temperature rise caused by greenhouse gas emissions should not exceed 2°C above the average global temperature of pre-industrial times. It has been estimated that to have at least a 50 per cent chance of keeping warming below 2°C throughout the twenty-first century, the cumulative carbon emissions between 2011 and 2050 need to be limited to around 1100 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide (Gt CO2). However, the greenhouse gas emissions contained in present estimates of global fossil fuel reserves are around three times higher than this, and so the unabated use of all current fossil fuel reserves is incompatible with a warming limit of 2°C. Here we use a single integrated assessment model that contains estimates of the quantities, locations and nature of the world’s oil, gas and coal reserves and resources, and which is shown to be consistent with a wide variety of modelling approaches with different assumptions, to explore the implications of this emissions limit for fossil fuel production in different regions. Our results suggest that, globally, a third of oil reserves, half of gas reserves and over 80 per cent of current coal reserves should remain unused from 2010 to 2050 in order to meet the target of 2°C. We show that development of resources in the Arctic and any increase in unconventional oil production are incommensurate with efforts to limit average global warming to 2°C. Our results show that policy makers’ instincts to exploit rapidly and completely their territorial fossil fuels are, in aggregate, inconsistent with their commitments to this temperature limit. Implementation of this policy commitment would also render unnecessary continued substantial expenditure on fossil fuel exploration, because any new discoveries could not lead to increased aggregate production.

來源出版物：Nature, 2015, 517(7533): 187-190

聯(lián)系郵箱：McGlade, C; christophe.mcglade@ucl.ac.uk

Physiological plasticity increases resilience of ectothermic animals to climate change

Seebacher, F; White, CR; Franklin, CE

Abstract: Understanding how climate change affects natural populations remains one of the greatest challenges for ecology and management of natural resources. Animals can remodel their physiology to compensate for the effects of temperature variation, and this physiological plasticity, or acclimation, can confer resilience to climate change. The current lack of a comprehensive analysis of the capacity for physiological plasticity across taxonomic groups and geographic regions, however, constrains predictions of the impacts of climate change. Here, we assembled the largest database to date to establish the current state of knowledge of physiological plasticity in ectothermic animals. We show that acclimation decreases the sensitivity to temperature and climate change of freshwater and marine animals, but less so in terrestrial animals. Animals from more stable environments have greater capacity for acclimation, and there is a significant

trend showing that the capacity for thermal acclimation increases with decreasing latitude. Despite the capacity for acclimation, climate change over the past 20 years has already resulted in increased physiological rates of up to 20%, and we predict further future increases under climate change. The generality of these predictions is limited, however, because much of the world is drastically undersampled in the literature, and these undersampled regions are the areas of greatest need for future research efforts.

來源出版物：Nature Climate Change, 2015, 5(1): 61-66

聯(lián)系郵箱：Seebacher, F, frank.seebacher@sydney.edu.au

Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought

Kelley, CP; Mohtadi, S; Cane, MA; et al.

Abstract: Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system.

關(guān)鍵詞：drought; Syria; climate change; unrest; conflict

來源出版物：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2015, 112(11): 3241-3246

聯(lián)系郵箱：Kelley, CP; colin.kelley@geog.ucsb.edu

Accelerating extinction risk from climate change

Urban, MC

Abstract: Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change–induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions.

來源出版物：Science, 2015, 348(6234): 571-573

聯(lián)系郵箱：Urban, MC; mark.urban@uconn.edu

Global warming and changes in drought

Trenberth, KE; Dai, AG; van der Schrier, G; et al.

Abstract: Several recently published studies have produced apparently conflicting results of how drought is changing under climate change. The reason is thought to lie in the formulation of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the data sets used to determine the evapotranspiration component. Here, we make an assessment of the issues with the PDSI in which several other sources of discrepancy emerge, not least how precipitation has changed and is analysed. As well as an improvement in the precipitation data available, accurate attribution of the causes of drought requires accounting for natural variability, especially El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation effects, owing to the predilection for wetter land during La Ni?a events. Increased heating from global warming may not cause droughts but it is expected that when droughts occur they are likely to set in quicker and be more intense.

來源出版物：Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4(1): 17-22

聯(lián)系郵箱：Trenberth, KE; trenbert@ucar.edu

Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison

Rosenzweig, C; Elliott, J; Deryng, D; et al.

Abstract: Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.

來源出版物：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2014, 111(9): 3268-3273

聯(lián)系郵箱：Rosenzweig, C; cynthia.rosenzweig@nasa.gov

Climate change, adaptation, and phenotypic plasticity: The problem and the evidence

Merila, J; Hendry, AP

Abstract: Many studies have recorded phenotypic changes in natural populations and attributed them to climate change. However, controversy and uncertainty has arisen around three levels of inference in such studies. First, it has proven difficult to conclusively distinguish whether phenotypic changes are genetically based or the result of phenotypic plasticity. Second, whether or not the change is adaptive is usually assumed rather than tested. Third, inferences that climate change is the specific causal agent have rarely involved the testing – and exclusion – of other potential drivers. We here review the various ways in which the above inferences have been attempted, and evaluate the strength of support that each approach can provide. This methodological assessment sets the stage for 11 accompanying review articles that attempt comprehensive syntheses of what is currently known – and not known – about responses to climate change in a variety of taxa and in theory. Summarizing and relying on the results of these reviews, we arrive at the conclusion that evidence for genetic adaptation to climate change has been found in some systems, but is still relatively scarce. Most importantly, it is clear that more studies are needed – and these must employ better inferential methods – before general conclusions can be drawn. Overall, we hope that the present paper and special issue provide inspiration for future research and guidelines on best practices for its execution.

關(guān)鍵詞：environmental change; evolution; genetics; global change; individual plasticity; natural selection

來源出版物：Evolutionary Applications, 2014, 7(1): 1-14

聯(lián)系郵箱：Merila, J; juha.merila@helsinki.fi

Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change

Schewe, J; Heinke, J; Gerten, D; et al.

Abstract: Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2°C above present (approximately 2.7°C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (＜500 m3per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the

steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2°C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development.

關(guān)鍵詞：climate impacts; hydrological modeling; Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project

來源出版物：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2014, 111(9): 3245-3250

聯(lián)系郵箱：Schewe, J; jacob.schewe@pik-potsdam.de

EURO-CORDEX: New high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research

Jacob, D; Petersen, J; Eggert, B; et al.

Abstract: A new high-resolution regional climate change ensemble has been established for Europe within the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) initiative. The first set of simulations with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km was completed for the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with more simulations expected to follow. The aim of this paper is to present this data set to the different communities active in regional climate modelling, impact assessment and adaptation. The EURO-CORDEX ensemble results have been compared to the SRES A1B simulation results achieved within the ENSEMBLES project. The large-scale patterns of changes in mean temperature and precipitation are similar in all three scenarios, but they differ in regional details, which can partly be related to the higher resolution in EURO-CORDEX. The results strengthen those obtained in ENSEMBLES, but need further investigations. The analysis of impact indices shows that for RCP8.5, there is a substantially larger change projected for temperature-based indices than for RCP4.5. The difference is less pronounced for precipitation-based indices. Two effects of the increased resolution can be regarded as an added value of regional climate simulations. Regional climate model simulations provide higher daily precipitation intensities, which are completely missing in the global climate model simulations, and they provide a significantly different climate change of daily precipitation intensities resulting in a smoother shift from weak to moderate and high intensities.

關(guān)鍵詞：regional climate change; impact indices; EUROCORDEX; heat wave; heavy precipitation; dry spells

來源出版物：Regional Environmental Change, 2014, 14(2): 563-578

聯(lián)系郵箱：Jacob, D; daniela.jacob@hzg.de

編輯：王微

典

文章題目第一作者來源出版物1 Potential impact of climate change on world food supply Rosenzweig, C Nature, 1994, 367(6459): 133-138 2 Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming Davis, AJ Nature, 1998, 391(6669): 783-786 3 Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants Root, TL Nature, 2003, 421(6918): 57-60 4 A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems Parmesan, C Nature, 2003, 421(6918): 37-42 5 Extinction risk from climate change Thomas, CD Nature, 2004, 427(6970): 145-148

Potential impact of climate change on world food supply

Rosenzweig, C; Parry, ML