趙磊

To be the next global manufacturing center

——Research report on Ethiopia

埃塞俄比亞是具有3000多年文明史的古國，國土面積114萬平方公里，人口過億，是非洲第二人口大國。

2010年，埃塞政府啟動首個“增長與轉(zhuǎn)型”計(jì)劃（Growth and TransformationPlan I）。多年來，埃塞政府各級官員高頻次到中國考察，回國后積極發(fā)展基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、能源和電信等基礎(chǔ)性行業(yè)，建設(shè)以出口創(chuàng)匯為先導(dǎo)的工業(yè)園，為國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的長期發(fā)展打下基礎(chǔ)。2013年，埃塞政府聘請中國開發(fā)區(qū)協(xié)會為其擬訂工業(yè)園發(fā)展規(guī)劃。2014年埃塞政府成立工業(yè)園開發(fā)公司（IPDC），并于2015年頒布《工業(yè)園法》，將工業(yè)化作為重點(diǎn)優(yōu)先發(fā)展方向，工業(yè)園開發(fā)戰(zhàn)略成為其中的核心戰(zhàn)略舉措。

另一方面，埃塞政府積極倡導(dǎo)以農(nóng)產(chǎn)品加工為核心的農(nóng)業(yè)現(xiàn)代化，夯實(shí)農(nóng)業(yè)和畜牧業(yè)基礎(chǔ)，大力發(fā)展咖啡、油料種子、鮮花、牛羊以及皮革出口等傳統(tǒng)優(yōu)勢產(chǎn)業(yè)。2015年以來，埃塞俄比亞GDP年均增長維持在10%以上。

就產(chǎn)能合作而言，當(dāng)勞動力密集型產(chǎn)業(yè)在中國和東南亞面臨成本上升時，埃塞希望利用本國勞動力優(yōu)勢承接國際產(chǎn)能轉(zhuǎn)移，復(fù)制中國式的工業(yè)化路徑，實(shí)現(xiàn)從農(nóng)業(yè)主導(dǎo)向輕工制造業(yè)主導(dǎo)的經(jīng)濟(jì)升級，進(jìn)而使埃塞成為下一個全球制造業(yè)中心。

（一）亞吉鐵路

亞吉鐵路采用中國標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、中國設(shè)計(jì)、中國資金、中國監(jiān)理和中國裝備建設(shè)而成，全長751.7公里，客運(yùn)設(shè)計(jì)時速120公里，貨運(yùn)設(shè)計(jì)時速80公里，總投資約38億美元。這是中國在非洲建設(shè)的第一條集技術(shù)、標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、設(shè)備、融資、施工、監(jiān)理、運(yùn)營和管理為一體的全流程“中國元素”的電氣化鐵路。

2018年1月1日，亞吉鐵路商業(yè)運(yùn)營開通儀式在亞的斯亞貝巴拉布火車站舉行。在對拉布火車站的調(diào)研中了解到，目前，早晨8點(diǎn)發(fā)出一列客車，第二天從終點(diǎn)車站回程一列（兩天往返一次）;貨車是一天一對?，F(xiàn)今，亞吉鐵路已經(jīng)建成19個車站，開通5站，遠(yuǎn)期將達(dá)到45個車站。亞吉鐵路2018年4月貨物運(yùn)輸收入共235萬多美元，客運(yùn)量達(dá)到1.2萬人，收入達(dá)15萬美元（票價(jià)，當(dāng)?shù)厝俗钸h(yuǎn)需花費(fèi)1008比爾，外國人需花費(fèi)2016比爾）。

在考察中發(fā)現(xiàn)，諸如電力不穩(wěn)定、法律法規(guī)不健全、沿線安全等問題也時有存在。因此，項(xiàng)目完成后的配套、培訓(xùn)等還將長期進(jìn)行。

（二）亞的斯亞貝巴輕軌

亞的斯亞貝巴輕軌是東非第一條現(xiàn)代化的城市輕軌，輕軌目前有南北線、東西線兩條線路，全長共31.05公里，設(shè)有39個車站。亞的斯亞貝巴輕軌由中國中鐵二局承建，使用全套中國標(biāo)準(zhǔn)、中國設(shè)計(jì)和中國設(shè)備。

輕軌票價(jià)分為2、4、6比爾不等，運(yùn)營時間從早6點(diǎn)到晚10點(diǎn)。高峰期15分鐘一列，平時間隔20分鐘一列。自2015年下半年通車至2018年5月31日，輕軌已安全運(yùn)營985天，累計(jì)開行列車23萬列次，運(yùn)營里程達(dá)584.2萬公里，共計(jì)運(yùn)送旅客1.29億人次，日均客流10.45萬人次，歷史最高單日客流侶.5萬人次（在國內(nèi)，部分城市的地鐵日均客流也就2萬人）。輕軌一節(jié)車廂最大載客317人，地鐵載客1600人。所以，首都輕軌日均10萬人，極其不易。

輕軌從多方面改變了這座城市的面貌。以前由于缺乏公共交通，到了晚上8點(diǎn)，整座城市就進(jìn)入了睡眠狀態(tài)?，F(xiàn)在輕軌運(yùn)營到晚上10點(diǎn)，商店、餐館可以開得晚一些，城市的商業(yè)因此活躍起來。輕軌成為埃塞的城市品牌，每年有很多非洲大型會議在亞的斯亞貝巴召開，很多國家代表團(tuán)都會來參觀這條輕軌，并對它贊不絕口。

（三）產(chǎn)業(yè)園

目前，埃塞政府主導(dǎo)建設(shè)的8座在建工業(yè)園全部由中資企業(yè)承建，已建成的2座非政府主導(dǎo)工業(yè)園——東方工業(yè)園和華堅(jiān)國際輕工業(yè)城全系中國民營企業(yè)投資開發(fā)。

東方工業(yè)園（Eastern Industry Zone）是中國民營企業(yè)投資的產(chǎn)業(yè)園，也是該國境內(nèi)首個由外資建成且正式運(yùn)營的工業(yè)園區(qū)，推動了埃塞工業(yè)園法的落地。2008年，中國江蘇永元投資有限公司在埃塞投資建設(shè)東方工業(yè)園，將現(xiàn)代工業(yè)園發(fā)展理念和模式引入埃塞。東方工業(yè)園一期工程總投入約2億美元，2013年中國提出“一帶一路”倡議后，一大批企業(yè)到非洲尋求發(fā)展，進(jìn)入東方工業(yè)園的企業(yè)迅速多起來。目前，工業(yè)園一期已有83家入園企業(yè)，解決了1.4萬當(dāng)?shù)厝藛T就業(yè)。

華堅(jiān)國際輕工業(yè)城：華堅(jiān)鞋廠是最早落戶東方工業(yè)園的企業(yè)之一，并被視作中國與埃塞進(jìn)行產(chǎn)能合作的樣板。截至2017年底，華堅(jiān)成為中國在埃塞最大規(guī)模的民營企業(yè)，已累計(jì)出口創(chuàng)匯超過1.22億美元，為當(dāng)?shù)亟鉀Q了7500多人的就業(yè)問題。該企業(yè)年產(chǎn)超過500萬雙女鞋，是埃塞最大的鞋業(yè)出口企業(yè)，占埃塞鞋業(yè)出口的65%以上。

作為勞動密集型企業(yè)，華堅(jiān)也受益于埃塞低廉的勞動力成本，鞏固了企業(yè)的國際競爭力。這里的人工成本是中國的七分之一，電費(fèi)是中國的一半。盡管物流成本高，但綜合算下來，效益還是中國國內(nèi)的若干倍。目前，亞吉鐵路已經(jīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)商業(yè)化運(yùn)營，但貨物出口流程不暢，華堅(jiān)等企業(yè)依然依賴公路運(yùn)輸，物流成本和時間成本較高。

通過進(jìn)入非洲開始謀劃全球布局，華堅(jiān)集團(tuán)國內(nèi)的兩個生產(chǎn)基地仍在生產(chǎn)，高端產(chǎn)品在東莞完成，中低端產(chǎn)品在贛州完成，而未來準(zhǔn)備把60%的產(chǎn)能轉(zhuǎn)移到埃塞等非洲國家。非洲以及東南亞國家的產(chǎn)品出口享受免關(guān)稅、免配額等政策，中國企業(yè)在埃塞生產(chǎn)的鞋和服裝等產(chǎn)品出口到歐美，可以享受零關(guān)稅政策。

英國專業(yè)咨詢機(jī)構(gòu)Ernst&Young連續(xù)五年推出的非洲國家投資吸引力指數(shù)（AAI）報(bào)告指出，埃塞俄比亞已取代尼日利亞成為非洲最具吸引力的投資目的國。但考察中也發(fā)現(xiàn)存在不少問題。

（一）稅收方面。在制定具體政策方面，經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)政策制定者不了解行業(yè)實(shí)際情況，對產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈條認(rèn)知不足等問題。另外，埃塞對產(chǎn)品稅收政策制定比較寬泛，通則過多、細(xì)則過少，在具體政策執(zhí)行過程中，稅務(wù)和海關(guān)等官員存在執(zhí)法自由裁量權(quán)較大、稅收執(zhí)法過當(dāng)?shù)葐栴}。

（二）貨幣方面存在貶值風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。受國際大宗商品價(jià)格低迷影響，埃塞的咖啡等農(nóng)產(chǎn)品出口創(chuàng)匯疲軟。英國《金融時報(bào)》的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，埃塞目前的外匯儲備為30.83億美元，而外債則累計(jì)231.67億美元。攀升的貿(mào)易赤字影響著埃塞的償付能力。

經(jīng)過調(diào)研，企業(yè)到埃塞發(fā)展需從以下幾方面著手：

第一，園區(qū)建設(shè)不是越多越好。海外產(chǎn)業(yè)園區(qū)的建設(shè)需要對產(chǎn)能合作與產(chǎn)業(yè)園區(qū)發(fā)展做更系統(tǒng)的剖析。

第二，加強(qiáng)電力等基建方面的合作。埃塞俄比亞擁有豐富的水能，但開發(fā)利用率不足5%。再加上老舊的輸配電系統(tǒng)，導(dǎo)致電力不穩(wěn)定問題突出。目前，埃塞正在努力解決停電問題，升級電網(wǎng)和進(jìn)行電網(wǎng)改造。

第三，加強(qiáng)跨文化管理?！耙粠б宦贰苯ㄔO(shè)強(qiáng)調(diào)文明互鑒，還要在構(gòu)建“人文格局”上下功夫。

第四，更多關(guān)注教育、醫(yī)療等民生問題。要鼓勵更多的企業(yè)與人才扎根非洲，需要配套教育和醫(yī)療支持。無論是國有企業(yè)還是民營企業(yè)在海外，都希望以政府的力量興建海外的華人醫(yī)院與學(xué)校，這對人才扎根非洲是有助益的。

第五，建議在非洲不同區(qū)域（如東非的埃塞、西非的尼日利亞等）建“一帶一路”能力中心。目前，很多中資企業(yè)將當(dāng)?shù)貑T工派到中國培訓(xùn)，不僅成本高，且回國后培育人員離開企業(yè)的比例較大。能力中心建設(shè)有助于解決非洲從官員到員工對“一帶一路”關(guān)鍵性問題的近距離認(rèn)知。

I Overview of Ethiopian Economy

Ethiopia is an ancient country with a civilization history of 3，000 years. Witha land area of l.14 million square kilometers and a population of over 100 million，it is the second most populous country in Africa.

In 2010， the Ethiopian government launched Growth and Transformation PlanI. Over the years， officials from the Ethiopian government at all levels have madefrequent visits to China. Afier returning to Ethiopia， they have actively advancedinfrastructure development， energy telecommunications and other basic industries，and built industrial parks spearheaded by earning foreign exchange through export，laying a foundation for the long-term development of the national economy.In 2013， the Ethiopian government invited China Association of DevelopmentZones （CADZ） to draw up the A Proclamation on Industrial Parks. The Ethiopiangovernment established the Industrial Park Development Corporation （IPDC） in2014 and promulgated the Industrial Park Proclamation in 2015. Industrializationwas set as the priority in development， and the industrial park development strategybecame a core strategic measure.

On the other hand， the Ethiopian government actively advocates agriculturalmodernization centered on the agricultural product processing， consolidates thefoundation of agriculture and animal husbandry and vigorously develops traditionaladvantageous industries such as coffee， oil seeds， flowers， cattle and sheep， andleather export. Since 2015， Ethiopia's GDP has maintained an annual growth rate ofover 10%.

In terms of capacity cooperation， when labor-intensive industries are facingrising costs in China and Southeast Asia， Ethiopia hopes to take advantage ofits strength in labor， undertake international capacity transfer and replicate theChinese-style industrialization path. It aims to transform an agrarian economyinto one donunated by light manufacturing， making Ethiopia the next globalmanufacturing center.

II Progress of the Belt and Road Initiative Construction in Ethiopia

Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway is built with Chinese standards， design， funds，supervision and equipment. The railway is 751.7 kilometers long， with a designedspeed of 120 km/h for passenger and 80 km/h for freight. The total investment isabout USD 3.8 billion. It is China's first electrified railway in Africa with Chineseelements fully integrated， including technology standards， equipment， financing，construction， supervision， operation and management.

The opening ceremony of the commercial operation of Addis Ababa-DjiboutiRailway was held at the Lebu Railway Station， Addis Ababa on January l， 2018.According to the investigation of Lebu Railway Station， a passenger train leavesat 8 a.m. and returns the next day from the terminal station （once every two days）.A pair of freight trains run each day. Now， 19 stations have been built along AddisAbaba-Djibouti Railway， including 5 0pened. The number of stations is expectedto reach 45 in the future. In April 2018， the railway eamed more than USD 2.35million in freight revenue and USD 150，000 byserving 12，000 passengers （fare： as much as ETB1，008 for locals and ETB 2，016 for foreigners）.

During the investigation， problems such aspower instability， imperfect laws and regulations， aswell as safety risks are also found from time to time.Therefore， facilities improvement and personneltraining will continue after project completion for along term.

（II） Addis Ababa Light Rail

Addis Ababa Light Rail is the first modem urbanlight rail in East Africa. It currently comprises twolines， the north-south line and the east-west line， witha total length of 31.05 kilometers and 39 stations.Addis Ababa Light Rail was built by China RailwayErju Construction Co.，Ltd， adopting a full range ofChinese standards， Chinese designs and Cluneseequipment.

The fares include ETB 2， ETB 4 and ETB 6.Operating hours are from 6 a.m. t0 10 p.m. The trainruns every 15 minutes in peak time and every 20minutes in normal time. Since the second half of 2015t0 2018 0n May 31， the light rail had operated safelyfor 985 days， with 230，000 trains running and a totalnuleage of 5.842 million kilometers. It had served atotal of 129 nullion passengers， with a daily averageof 104，500 and a record of 185，000 （In China， theaverage daily passenger flow on the subway in somecities is only 20，000 people）. A light rail camagecan accommodate a maximum of 317 passengers，while the subway can hold l，600 people. Therefore，an average of 100，000 passengers a day is indeedimpressive.

The light rail has changed the look of the cityin many ways. Previously， due to the lack of publictransportation， the city went to sleep at 8 p.m.Now， the light rail runs until 10 p.m.， so shops andrestaurants can stay open later， and business in the citybrisks up. The light rail has become an urban brand ofEthiopia. Every year， major African conferences areheld in Addis Ababa， and many delegations come tovisit the light rail， showing their appreciation.

（III） Industrial Park

At present， all the 8 industrial parks underconstruction led by the Ethiopian government areundertaken by Clunese-funded enterprises. EasternIndustry Zone and Huajian International LightIndustry City（Ethiopia） PLC， the 2 completed non-government leading industrial parks， were fullyinvested and developed by Chinese private enterprises.

The Ethiopian Eastern Industry Zone， an industrialpark invested by private enterprises in China， is thefirst industrial park built and formally operated byforeign capital in the country which has promotedthe implementation of the Ethiopian IndustrialPark Proclamation. In 2008， Jiangsu YongyuanInvestment Co.， Ltd. invested in the construction ofEastem Industry Zone in Ethiopia and introduced thedevelopment concept and mode of modem industrialpark into the country. The total investment of EastemIndustry Zone Phase I is about USD 200 million.After China put forward the Belt and Road Initiativein 2013， a large number of enterprises went to Africafor development. Many enterprises entered EastemIndustry Zone. So far， 83 enterprises have entered thefirst phase ofthe project and created 14，000 local jobs.

Huajian International Light Industry City：Huajian's shoe factory was one ofthe first enterprisesto enter Eastern Industry Zone. It is considered amodel for capacity cooperation between China andEthiopia. By the end of 2017， Huajian had becomeChina's largest private enterprise in Ethiopia， withover USD 122 million eamed from exports and over7，500 local jobs created. With an annual output ofover 5 million pairs ofwomen's shoes， the companyis the largest shoe exporter in Ethiopia， accounting forover 65% of Ethiopia's shoe exports.

As a labor-intensive enterprise， Huajian has alsobenefited from the low labor costs in Ethiopia andconsolidated its international competitiveness. Laborcosts here are l/7 0f that in China， and electricity billsare half that in China. Although the logistic cost ishigh， the comprehensive benefits are several timeshigher than those in China. The Addis Ababa-DjiboutiRailway has been commercialized， but the exportprocess is still to be smoothened. Huajian and otherenterprises still rely on road transportation， and thelogistics cost high in both time and money.

Entering Africa， Huajian started to plan its globallayout. Its two domestic production bases are stillin production. High-end products are produced inDongguan and lower-end products in Ganzhou.The group plans to transfer 60% of its productioncapacity to Ethiopia and other African countries inthe future. Export from African and Southeast Asiancountries enjoy tariff-free and quota-free policies.Shoes， clothing and other products made by Chinesecompanies in Ethiopia enjoy zero tariffs whenexported to Europe and the US.

III Existing Problems and Related Suggestions

Etluopia has overtaken Nigeria as Africa's most attractive destination forinvestment， according to a five-year Investment Attractiveness Index （AAI） studyby the UK-based consultancy Emst&Young. However， many problems were foundin the investigation.

（I） Taxation. When formulating specific policies， some policy makers do notunderstand the actual situation of the industry and have insufficient knowledge ofthe industrial chain. What's more， the product tax policy of Ethiopia is relativelybroad， with too many general principles and too few detailed rules. Whenimplementing specific policies， tax and customs officials have great discretion inlaw enforcement， and there are problems such as excessive tax law enforcement.

（II） There is a risk of currency devaluation. Affected by the downturn ininternational commodity prices， coffee and other Ethiopian agricultural products areweak in earning foreign exchange through export. According to the latest figuresfrom the UK Financial Times， Ethiopia's foreign exchange reserves are now USD3.083 billion， while its foreign debt accumulates to USD 23.167 billion. A risingtrade deficit threeatens Ethiopia's solvency.

After investigation， the author puts forward the following developmentsuggestions：

First of all， it may not be a good idea to build as many industrial parks aspossible. The construction of overseas industrial parks requires a more systematicanalysis of production capacity cooperation and industrial park development.

Secondly， cooperation in power and other infrastructure projects should bestrengthened. Ethiopia has plenty of water power， but less than 5% of it is exploited.The old transnussion and distribution system have led to the conspicuous problemsof power instability. Ethiopia is now working intensively to deal with blackouts andupgrading its power grid.

Thirdly， the cross-cultural management should be improved. The Belt andRoad Initiative values mutual learning among civilizations. More effort should bemade to build the people-to-people ties.

Fourthly， more attention should be paid to education， medical care and otherlivelihood issues. We should encourage more enterprises and talents to take rootsin Africa， which requires supporting education and medical care services. Bothstate-owned enterprises and private companies hope to build Chinese hospitals andschools overseas with government support. This will help talents settle inAfrica.

Fifthly， it is suggested to build Belt and Road capacity centers in differentregions of Africa， including Ethiopia in the east and Nigeria in the west. At present，many Chinese companies send their local employees in Africa to China for training.It is expensive and it is highly possible that they will leave the company upon theirreturn. The construction of capacity center will help African officials and staff getup close and personal on key issues ofthe Belt and Road Initiative.