丹尼爾·斯通

Marketing and fads lifted the ancient avocado1 to popularity. 借力營銷和消費風尚，古老的牛油果全球走紅。

The Super Bowl2 isn’t just a battle of the best football teams. It’s a botanical milestone as well—the day the United States hits peak avocado. Every year for the big game， ravenous3 fans turn more than 65 million avocados into guacamole4， which is remarkable for a prehistoric fruit that might have gone extinct thousands of years ago.

Avocados grew naturally， like all fruits， but endured where others failed by making themselves attractive to large creatures called gomphotheres5， which looked like an elephant mixed with a walrus6. A fruit ensures its survival by spreading its seeds. Gomphotheres could easily pass the avocados’ large seeds through their spacious digestive tracts， distributing them across the landscape.

Eleven thousand years later， the Aztecs7 invented guacamole. “Avocado” comes from the Aztec word “ahuacatl，” a derivative of the word for testicle， based on how the fruit grows droopy and in pairs. The Aztecs also called it the “fertility fruit，” based on their belief that it boosted virility （a finding that modern science hasn’t quite backed up）.

An American “food spy8” named David Fairchild9， on assignment for the US Department of Agriculture， picked up the fruit in Chile10 in the 1890s with the intention of introducing it to US farmers and American palates. But today， Mexico is the world’s leading supplier of avocados. When California growing season ends each September， Mexican farmers kick their production into high gear， particularly in the state of Michoacán11， where avocados are so lucrative that some orchards12 are protected by armed guards13.

As with kale or quinoa， one way to explain the avocado renaissance is marketing. Why else would an ancient fruit rather suddenly boom in popularity in—of all places—Brooklyn， where an “avocado bar” called the Avocaderia fills its Instagram feed14 with portraits of sliced avocados in artful compositions？

Avocado production and consumption took off in the 1990s， which coincides with the first big marketing campaigns. The media-savvy Hass Avocado Board15 promotes the fruit as though it were a rock star， publicizing its many health benefits related to immunity， weight loss and cardiovascular disease16. The Hass board shared some of its marketing secrets in a 2015 report， and among them was this unsubtle tip： “Large， illustrated ads create excitement.” That helps explain how avocados ended up with the largest illustrated promotion on the planet， a Super Bowl ad， paid for by industry group Avocados from Mexico17， along with a mobile game that transports users to sunny “Avocadoland” and “Guacapulco.” 18

Chefs are also responsible for innovations that fuel popularity. Avocados are ancient， but the first time The Washington Post mentioned an “avocado smoothie” was in 2000 （in an article about Eden Center， the Vietnamese shopping center in Northern Virginia）. “Avocado toast” didn’t come up until 2013. The green flesh is now mushed， salted and mounted on bread at coffee shops across America， and mocked as the bane of millennial savings accounts19.

Demand for avocados shows no sign of declining， and not only in the United States. The Netherlands’ consumption of avocados isn’t far behind America’s， and China’s growing appetite has surged 250 percent each year since 2012. Last spring， a three-week avocado promotion at China’s 5，000 KFC restaurants had to end early when the country ran out.

Can the avocado-producing countries sustain such worldwide zest？ So far， yes. But growing exports are pushing Mexican farmers nearly to their limit of land， water and fertilizer. An almost endless number of global customers also pushes the price up， up and up. Last year， the cost in the United States of a single avocado more than doubled—and the fact that they remain hard to keep on store shelves indicates that the price may rise still.

But the future of agriculture is hard to predict by looking to the past. Keeping up with the market requires growing more but also growing more efficiently. Scientists are working on seeds that thrive with less water， in denser orchards and—the real holy grail20—in cooler climates. Apeel Sciences21， a company near Santa Barbara， Calif.， is developing ways to make avocados （and other fruits） stay fresh longer， so they can be shipped farther distances， potentially opening up new growing regions， that， like Mexico， can lift their economies on the fruit no one can get enough of.

Which is to say， tomorrow’s avocados won’t be the same as today’s， or probably even consumed in the same way （i.e. as Super Bowl party dip）. Just ask David Fairchild， who couldn’t have imagined when he introduced a box of “alligator pears” to the United States 120 years ago that a century in the future， people would be getting avocado tattoos and applying moisturizing avocado face masks. Or better yet， ask the Aztecs， whose avocado sauce never seems to get credit for being the first #AvocadoInnovation.

如今，超級碗不僅是美國最棒的橄欖球隊之間的戰(zhàn)役，還是植物圈的一大盛事——這一天在美國，牛油果消費量最大。每年超級碗比賽期間，食欲旺盛的球迷吃掉的牛油果醬要消耗6500多萬顆牛油果。這對于史前時期便已存在、數千年前幾近滅絕的牛油果來說，實在驚人。

和其他水果一樣，牛油果也是自然生長的。但在其他水果都無法生存的地方，牛油果通過吸引嵌齒象科動物存活了下來。這類動物的樣子很像大象和海象的結合體。水果都通過傳播種子延續(xù)生命，牛油果也不例外。牛油果的種子比較大，嵌齒象科動物可以借助自身巨大的消化道，輕松將它們傳播開來。

1.1萬年后，阿茲特克人發(fā)明了牛油果醬。avocado這個詞源于阿茲特克語ahuacatl一詞，該詞是從testicle（睪丸）衍生而來，因為牛油果成對生長，果實下垂。另外，阿茲特克人認為牛油果可以壯陽（現代科學還未證實這一觀點），因此也稱之為“生育之果”。

美國“試吃員”戴維·費爾柴爾德曾任職于美國農業(yè)部。19世紀90年代，他在智利找到了這種果實，將其介紹給美國農民種植，讓美國人品嘗。但是如今，墨西哥卻成了全球最大的牛油果供應國。加利福尼亞的牛油果每年9月就下市了。此時，在墨西哥，尤其是米卻肯州，正值牛油果豐收季，利潤如此之高，一些果園甚至雇用武裝人員守衛(wèi)。

牛油果與羽衣甘藍、藜麥一樣，可以說都是借力市場營銷走紅。在紐約市的布魯克林區(qū)，有一家叫Avocaderia的“牛油果吧”，這家餐廳的Instagram里，都是擺成精美形狀的牛油果切片的圖片——正是借力這樣的營銷，這種古老的水果才偏偏在布魯克林一炮走紅。

上世紀90年代，第一輪大規(guī)模營銷活動展開，牛油果的生產和消費開始猛增。哈斯牛油果協會借媒體之力，像宣傳搖滾巨星那樣宣傳牛油果，稱其可以增強免疫力、幫助減肥、預防心血管疾病，益處多多。哈斯協會在2015年發(fā)布的一份報告中分享了一些營銷秘訣，里面提到一個常見的營銷策略：“生動的巨幅圖片廣告令人激動?！闭蛉绱?，行業(yè)組織 “來自墨西哥的牛油果”才選擇在超級碗比賽上打廣告——這是全球最大的圖片廣告。另外，它還設計了一款手機游戲為牛油果造勢，其中的兩個游戲場景 “牛油果之都”和 “瓜卡普爾科”陽光明媚，玩家會有身臨其境之感。

廚師的產品創(chuàng)新也推動了牛油果的走紅。牛油果史前時期便已存在，但《華盛頓郵報》2000年才首次提到“牛油果奶昔”（在一篇關于伊甸園購物中心的文章中。那是一家越南人開辦的商場，位于北弗吉尼亞）。2013年出現了“牛油果吐司”。全美的咖啡廳如今都將牛油果壓成泥，加入鹽，抹到面包上。有人打趣說，正是因為牛油果吐司，千禧一代的存款額降低了。

對牛油果的需求尚無下降的跡象，而且不僅在美國是這樣。荷蘭的牛油果消費緊隨美國之后，而在中國，牛油果消費從2012年起以每年250%的速度在增長。去年春天，牛油果系列產品促銷活動在中國的5000家肯德基門店展開，計劃持續(xù)3周的活動最后因產品賣光而不得不提早結束。

牛油果生產國能否滿足世界各國的狂熱需求呢？目前看來，答案是肯定的。但出口不斷增長，造成墨西哥的土地、水和肥料也幾近飽和。全球消費持續(xù)增長，造成牛油果價格一再攀升。去年，美國牛油果單位成本增加了兩倍多——但牛油果依舊一上架就被一搶而空，由此可見，價格可能還會繼續(xù)上漲。

但是依靠以往的情況很難預測未來牛油果種植的發(fā)展趨勢。若想滿足市場的需求，不僅需要提高產量，也需要提高生產效率?？茖W家正在研發(fā)一種牛油果種子，它需水量較低，可以種得更密一些，而且——真正的挑戰(zhàn)——能在更為寒冷的氣候條件下生長。Apeel Sciences科技公司位于美國加利福尼亞州圣巴巴拉附近，正在研發(fā)延長牛油果（以及其他水果）保鮮時間的方法。若研發(fā)成功，牛油果可以運輸至更遠的地方，便有可能開發(fā)新的種植區(qū)，那些地區(qū)就能像墨西哥一樣，借牛油果這種供不應求的水果提振當地經濟。

也就是說，未來的牛油果將有別于現在的牛油果，甚至消費方式也跟今天不同（即當作超級碗派對上的果醬）?？梢詥枂柎骶S·費爾柴爾德，120年前，他把一箱“鱷梨”帶回美國時，肯定想不到百年之后人們會依照牛油果的樣式紋身、敷牛油果補水面膜?；蛘咦詈迷賳枂柊⑵澨乜巳耍麄儼l(fā)明的牛油果醬算是首個“牛油果創(chuàng)新產品”，卻似乎永遠不會因此而得到贊譽了。

（譯者單位：對外經濟貿易大學）