基于GM（1，1）模型的沈陽市機(jī)動(dòng)車保有量測算

俞嘉馨　柴昱名　榮婉婧　靖楠楠

摘 要：隨著社會(huì)經(jīng)濟(jì)化和城市化進(jìn)程的不斷加快，城市交通問題日益突出，城市機(jī)動(dòng)車保有量急劇增加，產(chǎn)生諸如道路擁堵、大氣環(huán)境污染等一系列交通問題。本文首先利用多元回歸模型測算應(yīng)用機(jī)動(dòng)車保有量的因素，然后利用GM（1，1）模型預(yù)測影響沈陽機(jī)動(dòng)車保有量未來5年的數(shù)值，并通過逐步回歸分析預(yù)測沈陽市2016-2020年的機(jī)動(dòng)車保有量。

關(guān)鍵詞：機(jī)動(dòng)車保有量 交通環(huán)境承載力 交通環(huán)境污染承載力

Measurement and Calculation of Motor Vehicle Ownership in Shenyang based on GM （1，1）Model

Yu Jiaxin，Chai Yuming，Rong Wanjing，Jing Nannan

Abstract：With the continuous acceleration of social economization and urbanization， urban traffic problems have become increasingly prominent， and the number of urban motor vehicles has increased sharply， resulting in a series of traffic problems such as road congestion and atmospheric pollution. This paper first uses the multiple regression model to measure the factors that affect the number of motor vehicles in Shenyang， and then uses the GM（1，1）model to predict the value of the number of vehicles in Shenyang in the next 5 years， and predicts the 2016-2020 motor vehicle ownership of Shenyang through stepwise regression analysis.

Key words：vehicle ownership， traffic environmental carrying capacity， traffic environmental pollution carrying capacity