Media, Journalism and Technology Predictions 2016

Posted by Nic Newman

Research Associate, Reuters Institute

http://digitalnewsreport.org/publications/2016/predictions-2016/

This year’s key developments will centre on online video, mobile apps and further moves towards distributed content. Mounting problems around online display advertising will lead to a burst of innovation around journalism business models.

● Facebook/Google/Apple battle intensifies over the future of mobile and the discovery of content

● Messaging apps continue to drive the next phase of the social revolution

● Mobile browsing speeds up thanks to initiatives by platforms and publishers

● Ad-blocker/publisher wars move to mobile – they rage through 2016

● Fraud and fake traffic further undermine faith in online advertising

● Renewed focus on paid content of different flavours (given above) including crowd funding, membership and micropayment

● Explosion of 360° video, auto-play video and vertical video (get used to it!)

● Growth of identified web (sign in and registration will be critical to delivering cross platform personal content and notifications)

● Breakthrough year for Robo-journalism– strikes in newsrooms over job losses

● Another year of spectacular cyber attacks and privacy breaches

● More measurement of attention/impact, less measurement of clicks

● Messaging apps go mainstream at work (eg Slack, Hipchat, FB at work)

● Scheduled TV viewing on the slide as more viewing shifts to on demand

● Rebirth of audio driven by internet delivery to mobile devices

Technology to watch for

● Virtual Reality (VR) hype goes into overdrive; but leaves nongamers cold

● Artificial intelligence (AI) and messaging bots

● Bendy and flexible phones; wireless charging finally takes off

● Drones go mainstream with registration required in most countries

● Smart mirrors just one example of growing visibility of the Internet of Things

Everywhere we will see the growth of analytics and data informed decision-making in technology, marketing and even publishing. In a few years’ time, it will seem extraordinary how uninformed we once were

In our survey of 130 leading Editors, CEOs and Digital Leaders for this report…

● 76% said it was extremely important to improve the use of data in newsrooms

● 79% said they would be investing more in online news video this year

● 54% said deepening online engagement was a top priority

● 22% were more worried about online revenues than last year; though surprisingly 20% were less worried

It will be another big year for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) We could see any of the following …

● Axel Springer buys more media companies

● News Corp buys more tech companies

● BT (or foreign company) buys ITV

● Apple buys Box (or Dropbox)

● Twitter buys Nuzzel

● Twitter is sold

● Yahoo is downsized/sold/broken up

● A brand buys a publisher