黃湘淇

中國(guó)人素來(lái)安土重遷，需得安居才可樂(lè)業(yè)，覺(jué)得房子還是自己的好，但隨著現(xiàn)代社會(huì)中人口流動(dòng)的增多和城市房?jī)r(jià)的飆升，租房也成為越來(lái)越多人的選擇，特別是離開(kāi)家鄉(xiāng)在外打拼的年輕人，他們秉承“我們的房子是租來(lái)的，但我們的生活不是”的態(tài)度經(jīng)營(yíng)自己在異鄉(xiāng)的小日子。情懷歸情懷，但作為一個(gè)“理性人”，買房還是租房歸根結(jié)底應(yīng)該當(dāng)成一道計(jì)算題，輸入各種變量，權(quán)衡利弊后得到一個(gè)客觀的結(jié)果，大大規(guī)避可預(yù)見(jiàn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

Whether to buy or rent a home is among the biggest financial decisions most of us make. It is basically a complex math problem in which the reward for getting it right can be tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars—and the punishment for getting it wrong similarly enormous.

Fortunately， there are many tools to help you work through the math， such as some online calculators. But there are some dimensions1 of rent versus buy that are really important but difficult to account for in dollar terms. They have to do with how owning a home lets you stop worrying about rent increases， forces you to save money， and on the flip side， how renting means you dont have to worry about the unpredictable costs of maintaining a home. Anyone trying to make a housing decision should at least think about them a bit before taking， or not taking， the plunge2.

Protection against Rising Rents

Suppose you live in a city that you find desirable and could envision living in for a very long time.3 Suppose you work in a field in which you cant plausibly4 expect your income to rise significantly in the decades ahead.

That makes a case for buying over renting.

We dont know the future of rents and home prices， either nationally or for any particular region. But one thing we do know is that sometimes rents and prices will skyrocket5 in a particular place. It has happened in New York and San Francisco since the 1990s； the same happened in Los Angeles from the 1960s to the 1980s， and a century ago one could say the same of Chicago and Detroit.

Buying a home is a way of locking in an affordable place to live， essentially an insurance policy against escalating6 rents. If you rent， you are forever at risk of your regions becoming newly popular， attracting an influx7 of people and high-paying jobs that drives up your cost of living beyond what your income can support.

Of course， your region may not be one of those new boom areas， in which case this insurance policy would prove unnecessary； you could even end up in a place with falling rents and home values， like Detroit in the last couple of decades. But thats the nature of insurance： You may pay for it but turn out not to need it.

How much is this insurance policy worth？ If taken to an extreme， it could lead you to make bad decisions. During the housing boom at the middle of the last decade， people used “If I dont buy now， I wont be able to afford to buy tomorrow” as a rationale8 to overpay for homes. Two factors that might help shape your decision：

1. How disruptive9 would it be for you to move somewhere else？ The more disruptive， the more you should value this insurance against higher rents.

2. How freely does your city allow new home building？ Rents are less likely to increase sharply if the housing supply can rise to meet new demand.

Forced Savings

Sometimes people say that renting is “just throwing money away，” which is a little misleading. You could just as easily say that when you buy a home， the mortgage interest and property taxes you pay are throwing money away.10

But that line of thinking does get one dimension of home buying right： When you buy a home with a standard mortgage， you gradually pay off the balance—slowly at first， faster as time goes on. Someone who takes out a $500，000， 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 4 percent has paid down about $8，000 of debt after one year， and $47，000 after five years.

In terms of a personal balance sheet， less debt is equivalent to11 more savings—assuming the value of the home is stable or rising. People who buy houses while in their early 30s with a 30-year mortgage and stay in it will own a valuable asset free and clear when they hit retirement age. They could either live rent- or mortgage-payment free during retirement， or sell the house， move somewhere cheaper and have a nice pile of cash savings.

Theoretically， one could construct the same strategy while renting， putting money away into a savings or investment account while paying a landlord for a place to live. The beauty of owning is that it happens automatically， by virtue of12 paying your mortgage. That means less temptation to spend the money instead of saving in a given month； you can get access to it through a home-equity loan， but that requires making the active effort of going to a bank.

So if， psychologically， you find it hard to save and are always tempted to take a vacation rather than plow money into a brokerage account，13 buying a house with borrowed money is a way to trick yourself into doing so and help ensure you have a meaningful net worth when retirement rolls around.

Volatility14 of Maintenance Costs

These have all been quirks of homeownership that tilt the economics in favor of buying.15 But heres an important one that points in the other direction. Both renters and homeowners pay costs for maintenance on their properties； they just do so in different ways with very different implications.

If you rent and the dishwasher breaks， your landlord is on the hook16 to repair or replace it. You may ultimately pay the bill in the sense that expected maintenance costs are built into the rent you pay， but you have no risk of that number varying depending on luck. Homeowners， on the other hand， face not a set monthly payment covering the costs of repairs and maintenance， but a great deal of volatility.

An urgent $2，000 air-conditioner repair bill， or even a $15，000 roof repair， might arise at any time. Other things， like replacing a shabby carpet or applying a fresh coat of paint， allow the homeowner more control over when the transaction happens， but still， its a lumpy pattern of expenditures.17

Most rent versus buy calculators ask users to put in an estimate of monthly maintenance costs for the home they would purchase. But the issue is not the expected average of those costs but the possibility of their lumpiness and unpredictability. That can be especially problematic for a person who empties savings to buy a home only to need to pay for an expensive repair a few months later.

None of these factors alone should be decisive， and the basics that you plug into online calculators—like the monthly mortgage payment， rent on a comparable place and closing costs—are more important. But when its a close call18， weighing these factors carefully—and how much they apply in your particular case—can help you make a smarter housing decision.

房子是買還是租，成了我們大部分人需要做出的最重大的一項(xiàng)財(cái)務(wù)決定。從根本上說(shuō)，這其實(shí)就是一道復(fù)雜的數(shù)學(xué)題，做對(duì)的回報(bào)就是能省幾萬(wàn)甚至幾十萬(wàn)的錢，但做錯(cuò)的懲罰也同樣金額龐大。

幸運(yùn)的是，有很多工具可以幫助你解開(kāi)這道數(shù)學(xué)題，比如一些在線計(jì)算器。但在是租還是買這個(gè)問(wèn)題上，也存在很多重要方面難以用錢來(lái)衡量。這其中包括你擁有了一個(gè)安居之處就不用再為房租上漲而發(fā)愁，也逼著你去存錢，但反過(guò)來(lái)，租房則意味著你不用去擔(dān)憂房屋維護(hù)上不可預(yù)見(jiàn)的各項(xiàng)支出。任何人在試圖做出住房決定前，至少都要考慮考慮要不要冒這個(gè)險(xiǎn)。

防止?jié)q租的保護(hù)措施

假設(shè)你住在心儀的城市，并能預(yù)見(jiàn)到自己會(huì)在那里生活很長(zhǎng)一段時(shí)間。假設(shè)在未來(lái)幾十年中，你所在的工作領(lǐng)域不太可能讓你收入大漲。

這種情況下，買房勝于租房。

我們無(wú)法知曉房租和房?jī)r(jià)的未來(lái)走勢(shì)，不論是國(guó)內(nèi)還是任何一個(gè)地區(qū)。但我們能知道的一點(diǎn)是，有時(shí)某個(gè)特定區(qū)域的房租和房?jī)r(jià)會(huì)飛漲。20世紀(jì)90年代起，紐約和舊金山就發(fā)生了這種情況。同樣的情況發(fā)生在20世紀(jì)60年代到80年代的洛杉磯，還有一個(gè)世紀(jì)前的芝加哥和底特律。

買下一處房產(chǎn)是一種鎖定實(shí)惠的安居之處的方法，本質(zhì)上就是防止房租不斷上漲的保險(xiǎn)措施。如果你租房，就永遠(yuǎn)冒著一定的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)—— 一旦你所在的區(qū)域“走紅”，便會(huì)引來(lái)一眾人口和高薪工作，抬高你的生活成本，使其超出你收入水平能夠支撐的范圍。

當(dāng)然，你所在區(qū)域不一定會(huì)成為新興地區(qū)之一，在這種情況下，保險(xiǎn)措施就會(huì)顯得沒(méi)有必要；你還可能陷入房租和房?jī)r(jià)下跌的境地，正如過(guò)去幾十年間底特律那樣。但這就是保險(xiǎn)的本質(zhì)：你可能為此掏了錢，結(jié)果卻派不上用場(chǎng)。

這個(gè)保險(xiǎn)措施到底值多少錢呢？走極端的話會(huì)導(dǎo)致你做出錯(cuò)誤的決定。在過(guò)去的10年中，房產(chǎn)一度過(guò)熱，人們都以“我今天不買，以后就買不起”為由，溢價(jià)購(gòu)置房產(chǎn)。有兩個(gè)因素可能導(dǎo)致你下定決心：

1. 如果你搬往別處，對(duì)你生活的破壞程度會(huì)有多大？破壞程度越大，你越該倚重保險(xiǎn)措施以應(yīng)對(duì)上升的房租。

2. 你所在城市對(duì)新建房屋的開(kāi)放空間多大？如果新房源可以不斷供應(yīng)來(lái)滿足新需求，那房租就不太可能劇烈上升。

被迫存錢

有時(shí)人們說(shuō)租房就是“拿錢打水漂”，這種說(shuō)法有點(diǎn)誤導(dǎo)大家。因?yàn)槟阋部梢暂p易地說(shuō)買了房子，要付的抵押貸款利息和房產(chǎn)稅同樣是打水漂。

但這種思路確實(shí)說(shuō)對(duì)了買房的一個(gè)方面：當(dāng)你用標(biāo)準(zhǔn)抵押貸款買房時(shí)，你是逐步地還清貸款——?jiǎng)傞_(kāi)始很慢，后來(lái)越來(lái)越快。有人以每年4%的固定利息貸了50萬(wàn)美元，期限為30年，一年后大約還清8，000美元，五年后還清47，000美元。

從個(gè)人資產(chǎn)負(fù)債方面看，假定房屋的價(jià)值是穩(wěn)定或上升的，更少的負(fù)債便相當(dāng)于更多的積蓄。在30歲出頭時(shí)買房的人們貸30年的款，并一直住在里面的話，等到了退休的年紀(jì)，他們就坐擁一處值錢的房產(chǎn)，并且沒(méi)有任何債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)。他們就能安享退休生活，無(wú)需再交房租或者償還抵押貸款；他們還可以賣掉房子，搬到房?jī)r(jià)更低的地方，并能得到一筆可觀的現(xiàn)金存款。

理論上，人們也可以就租房構(gòu)建一套相同的戰(zhàn)略，一邊交錢給房東，得到一個(gè)落腳之處，另一邊把剩下的錢存進(jìn)儲(chǔ)蓄或投資賬戶。而有房的好處就在于，通過(guò)償還抵押貸款，這兩方面自動(dòng)發(fā)生了。這就意味花錢的誘惑變少了，而不是在特定的一個(gè)月里去省錢；這點(diǎn)你可以通過(guò)住房抵押貸款做到，但這也要求你得勤往銀行跑。

如果是這樣，從心理上看，你會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)存錢很難，總?cè)滩蛔《葌€(gè)假什么的，而不是把錢投進(jìn)交易賬戶去生錢，但用借來(lái)的錢買房子就是種騙自己去存錢的辦法，幫助你確保在退休來(lái)臨時(shí)，存下有用的凈資產(chǎn)。

房屋維護(hù)成本的波動(dòng)性

一直都有些關(guān)于房屋自有的說(shuō)辭使國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)偏向買房。但這里有個(gè)關(guān)鍵的說(shuō)法是指向另一個(gè)方向的。租房者和買房者都為房產(chǎn)的維護(hù)支出，只是用不同的方式，也有著不同的結(jié)果。

如果你所租房子里的洗碗機(jī)壞了，你的房東顯然是要修理或者更換的。在某種意義上，最終為此買單的可能是你，因?yàn)轭A(yù)計(jì)維護(hù)成本是包含在你的房租里的，但你不用去承擔(dān)那些隨機(jī)變動(dòng)的數(shù)字所產(chǎn)生的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。而另一方面，自有房主面對(duì)的盡管不是每月在維修維護(hù)上的固定支出，但卻是巨大的波動(dòng)。

一張2，000美元的空調(diào)急修費(fèi)用單，甚至一筆高達(dá)15，000美元的屋頂修繕費(fèi)，都是隨時(shí)可能出現(xiàn)的。其他的情況，像換掉破舊的地毯或重新上一層漆，都允許自有房主在處理時(shí)有更大的控制權(quán)，但無(wú)論怎樣，支出的曲線都是上下波動(dòng)的。

大多數(shù)對(duì)比買租的計(jì)算器都要求使用者填寫所購(gòu)房屋每月預(yù)計(jì)的維護(hù)成本。但問(wèn)題不在于這些預(yù)計(jì)成本的平均值，而是這些成本的波動(dòng)性和不可預(yù)見(jiàn)性。當(dāng)一個(gè)人傾盡積蓄買了房子，幾個(gè)月后卻需要支付一大筆的維修費(fèi)用時(shí)，問(wèn)題就更加棘手。

這些因素中，單獨(dú)一項(xiàng)都不應(yīng)當(dāng)是決定性的，那些你輸進(jìn)在線計(jì)算器的基本數(shù)據(jù)更為重要，如每月還貸金額，同等住房的租金和房產(chǎn)買賣手續(xù)費(fèi)等。但當(dāng)你差一點(diǎn)做出錯(cuò)誤的選擇時(shí)，仔細(xì)權(quán)衡這些因素——以及有多少能在你身上適用——能幫助你做出一個(gè)更明智的住房決定。

1. dimension： 方面。

2. take the plunge： （思考之后）決定冒險(xiǎn)一試。

3. desirable： 令人滿意的，值得要的；envision： 設(shè)想，展望。

4. plausibly： 似乎可能地，似乎可靠地。

5. skyrocket： 飛漲，突然高升。

6. escalating： 逐步上升的。

7. influx： 涌入。

8. rationale： 基本原理，理論基礎(chǔ)。

9. disruptive： 破壞的，制造混亂的。

10. mortgage： 房屋抵押貸款；property： 房產(chǎn)，資產(chǎn)。

11. be equivalent to： 等于，相當(dāng)于。

12. by virtue of： 由于，憑借。

13. plow： 犁耕；brokerage account： （投資用的）經(jīng)紀(jì)賬戶，交易賬戶。

14. volatility： 波動(dòng)性。

15. quirk： 借口；homeownership： 居者有其屋，自置居所；tilt： 偏袒，使傾斜。

16. on the hood： 明顯地，顯而易見(jiàn)。

17. transaction： 交易，事務(wù)； lumpy： 凹凸不平的，高低不平的；expenditure： 費(fèi)用，支出。

18. close call： 千鈞一發(fā)，險(xiǎn)死還生。