錢明霞++路正南++王健
摘要以中國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)部門為研究對(duì)象,基于投入產(chǎn)出技術(shù)分別構(gòu)建需求拉動(dòng)下和供給驅(qū)動(dòng)下的碳排放模型,采用碳平均傳播長(zhǎng)度(APL)指標(biāo)測(cè)算產(chǎn)業(yè)部門之間的碳距離,衡量產(chǎn)業(yè)部門的碳波及效應(yīng),并區(qū)分后向碳APL和前向碳APL識(shí)別產(chǎn)業(yè)部門的碳波及鏈。實(shí)證分析表明,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)是中國(guó)能源消費(fèi)碳排放的大戶,碳排放量高達(dá)165 136.884萬(wàn)t,所占比例達(dá)到整個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)部門碳排放的98.23%,尤其是煉焦化工金屬產(chǎn)品制造業(yè)和電力燃?xì)饧八纳a(chǎn)供應(yīng)業(yè),所占比例高達(dá)87.52%,其中,電力燃?xì)饧八纳a(chǎn)供應(yīng)業(yè)的碳排放強(qiáng)度最大,為2.123t/萬(wàn)元。計(jì)算并對(duì)比各部門后向碳APL和前向碳APL的平均值和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)差,結(jié)果顯示前向碳APL數(shù)值較大且分散,說(shuō)明在“需求拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)”的政策背景下,需求拉動(dòng)作用下的產(chǎn)業(yè)部門碳波及效應(yīng)較供給驅(qū)動(dòng)作用下的碳波及效應(yīng)更為顯著。進(jìn)一步對(duì)各部門碳供給產(chǎn)業(yè)和碳需求產(chǎn)業(yè)進(jìn)行識(shí)別,發(fā)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)系統(tǒng)的碳波及鏈呈現(xiàn)出錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜的網(wǎng)狀結(jié)構(gòu)而非單一的線性鏈條,機(jī)械設(shè)備制造業(yè)和煉焦化工金屬產(chǎn)品制造業(yè)位于碳波及鏈的上游,采掘業(yè)和電力燃?xì)饧八纳a(chǎn)供應(yīng)業(yè)兩大部門位于碳波及鏈的末端,農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)、紡織皮革木材造紙制造業(yè)、食品制造及煙草加工業(yè)、交通運(yùn)輸倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)和郵政業(yè)等部門之間相互關(guān)聯(lián)和波及,互相轉(zhuǎn)移和吸收碳排放。因此,產(chǎn)業(yè)部門節(jié)能減排工作的順利實(shí)施,必須從產(chǎn)業(yè)系統(tǒng)總體的角度進(jìn)行科學(xué)規(guī)劃,清楚地認(rèn)識(shí)到各個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)部門在產(chǎn)業(yè)碳波及鏈中的功能和作用,通過(guò)縱向和橫向的溝通與競(jìng)合,推動(dòng)部門自身和其他部門之間的協(xié)同減排。
關(guān)鍵詞投入產(chǎn)出;碳排放;碳波及鏈
中圖分類號(hào)F062.9文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼A文章編號(hào)1002-2104(2014)12-0082-07doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2014.12.011
改革開(kāi)放以來(lái),中國(guó)創(chuàng)造了30多年的經(jīng)濟(jì)高速增長(zhǎng)奇跡,也帶來(lái)了能耗與排放的大量增長(zhǎng),加劇了節(jié)能減排工作和環(huán)境治理工作的緊迫性。2013年中共十八大報(bào)告強(qiáng)調(diào)“形成節(jié)約資源和保護(hù)環(huán)境的空間格局、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、生產(chǎn)方式、生活方式”,2014年中國(guó)政府工作報(bào)告中也強(qiáng)調(diào)“環(huán)境污染矛盾突出”,“出重拳強(qiáng)化污染防治”。產(chǎn)業(yè)部門作為碳排放的主要源頭,肩負(fù)著節(jié)能減排的重要責(zé)任,如何在追求產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的同時(shí)控制并減少碳排放,促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與資源環(huán)境的相互協(xié)調(diào)已成為一個(gè)重要而緊迫的現(xiàn)實(shí)任務(wù)。這就要求我們?cè)诋a(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展的過(guò)程中,科學(xué)測(cè)量各部門的碳排放,合理解析碳排放在各部門間的關(guān)聯(lián)及波及效應(yīng)。碳排放波及分析的基本依據(jù)是,各產(chǎn)業(yè)部門在產(chǎn)品或勞務(wù)的生產(chǎn)過(guò)程中由于能源消耗而產(chǎn)生碳排放,這部分碳排放若是因滿足本部門最終需求產(chǎn)生的,可作為直接碳排放,同時(shí)產(chǎn)業(yè)部門的產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)從上游生產(chǎn)過(guò)程到下游生產(chǎn)過(guò)程,直至消費(fèi)者的各個(gè)環(huán)節(jié)不可避免的會(huì)產(chǎn)生間接碳排放,當(dāng)某一部門發(fā)生變化時(shí),會(huì)引起與其直接相關(guān)的產(chǎn)業(yè)部門碳排放發(fā)生變化,而這些產(chǎn)業(yè)部門的變化又會(huì)導(dǎo)致其他部門碳排放發(fā)生變化,這就產(chǎn)生了碳排放波及效應(yīng),這一效應(yīng)正體現(xiàn)了“從搖籃到墳?zāi)埂钡娜炭刂扑枷?。隨著產(chǎn)業(yè)的快速發(fā)展和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的逐步合理化,產(chǎn)業(yè)各部門之間的關(guān)系越來(lái)越廣泛和復(fù)雜,這就要求我們從更深層的部門經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系出發(fā),深入挖掘碳排放在各產(chǎn)業(yè)部門之間的關(guān)聯(lián)和波及效應(yīng),研究部門的最終需求變動(dòng)或投入變動(dòng)對(duì)其他部門碳排放的影響,為落實(shí)和貫徹產(chǎn)業(yè)碳減排工作提供科學(xué)的理論依據(jù)和有效的政策支持。
1文獻(xiàn)綜述
碳減排問(wèn)題一直是國(guó)內(nèi)外學(xué)術(shù)界關(guān)注的熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題,產(chǎn)業(yè)層面的研究成果主要集中在以下幾個(gè)方面:第一,某些特定產(chǎn)業(yè)部門或者行業(yè)的碳排放測(cè)算及節(jié)能減排研究。何小剛和張耀輝[1]對(duì)中國(guó)36個(gè)工業(yè)行業(yè)的實(shí)證研究發(fā)現(xiàn),高能耗高排放的重化工業(yè)行業(yè)表現(xiàn)出典型的粗放增長(zhǎng)特征,其節(jié)能減排潛力巨大;付雪、王桂新等[2]基于中國(guó)能源—碳排放—經(jīng)濟(jì)投入產(chǎn)出表測(cè)算了哥本哈根會(huì)議目標(biāo)下各行業(yè)的減排潛力和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整潛力;徐勝等[3]探討了海洋產(chǎn)業(yè)低碳化核算問(wèn)題;楚春禮等[4]測(cè)算了2007年中國(guó)高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)的碳排放量及碳排放強(qiáng)度,同時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn)高新技術(shù)產(chǎn)業(yè)的碳排放主要來(lái)自于醫(yī)藥制造業(yè)、電子和通訊設(shè)備制造業(yè)。第二,產(chǎn)業(yè)碳排放的影響因素研究。Wang[5]提出應(yīng)從經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、一次能源需求、交通運(yùn)輸及電力生產(chǎn)等方面分析中國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)低碳化發(fā)展路徑。Agnolucci[6]研究了能源生產(chǎn)部門、商業(yè)部門、交通運(yùn)輸部門以及家庭的碳減排效果,提出應(yīng)該重點(diǎn)降低商業(yè)部門和交通運(yùn)輸部門的能源強(qiáng)度。第三,隱含碳排放及碳減排差別責(zé)任研究。陳紅敏[7]采用擴(kuò)展的投入產(chǎn)出方法,同時(shí)計(jì)算各部門由能源消耗導(dǎo)致的隱含碳排放和由某些工業(yè)生產(chǎn)過(guò)程導(dǎo)致的隱含碳排放,發(fā)現(xiàn)建筑業(yè)是隱含碳排放最高的產(chǎn)業(yè)部門,非金屬礦物制品業(yè)的生產(chǎn)過(guò)程隱含碳排放占總隱含碳排放的比率最高。錢明霞等[8]基于假設(shè)抽取法測(cè)算了產(chǎn)業(yè)部門的碳排放轉(zhuǎn)移,發(fā)現(xiàn)電力燃?xì)饧八纳a(chǎn)供應(yīng)業(yè)的碳轉(zhuǎn)移量最大。碳減排差別責(zé)任的研究主要圍繞“污染者付費(fèi)”原則以及由此衍生的“國(guó)家領(lǐng)土內(nèi)的責(zé)任”與“生產(chǎn)者污染負(fù)擔(dān)”原則而展開(kāi)。Cole[9]、Van Asselt[10]分別立足于發(fā)展中國(guó)家和發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家質(zhì)疑了“生產(chǎn)者污染負(fù)擔(dān)”原則的公平性。Peters[11]主張“消費(fèi)者污染負(fù)擔(dān)”,提出消費(fèi)者應(yīng)為與生產(chǎn)過(guò)程相關(guān)的溫室氣體排放負(fù)責(zé)。在“生產(chǎn)者污染負(fù)擔(dān)”和“消費(fèi)者污染負(fù)擔(dān)”原則基礎(chǔ)上,不少學(xué)者根據(jù)不同的研究對(duì)象,提出了“進(jìn)口國(guó)和出口國(guó)共同分擔(dān)”[12]、“生產(chǎn)者與消費(fèi)者共同分擔(dān)”[13]和“產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈上下游共同分擔(dān)”[14]等原則。徐盈之與鄒芳[15]以“生產(chǎn)者與消費(fèi)者共同分擔(dān)”原則計(jì)算了中國(guó)各產(chǎn)業(yè)部門生產(chǎn)者減排責(zé)任與消費(fèi)者減排責(zé)任,劉海嘯等[16]統(tǒng)籌考慮各產(chǎn)業(yè)部門對(duì)碳排放的依賴度和對(duì)整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響度來(lái)確定產(chǎn)業(yè)部門的碳減排責(zé)任。
從研究方法來(lái)看,投入產(chǎn)出分析被廣泛應(yīng)用于產(chǎn)業(yè)部門能源消費(fèi)及碳排放的研究中。但現(xiàn)有研究往往局限于一個(gè)部門與另一個(gè)部門之間的直接或完全聯(lián)系,而忽略了多個(gè)部門之間順次形成的更深層的部門經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系,基于此,Lahr & Dietzenbacher[17]首次從宏觀視角提出了“生產(chǎn)鏈”,Dietzenbacher[18-19]又提出了平均傳播長(zhǎng)度(Average Propagation Lengths,簡(jiǎn)稱APL)測(cè)算模型描述產(chǎn)業(yè)部門經(jīng)濟(jì)距離(Economic Distance Between Sectors),并實(shí)證分析了西班牙安達(dá)盧西亞地區(qū)的生產(chǎn)鏈演化情況。隨后有不少學(xué)者又致力于旅游生產(chǎn)鏈[20]、生物能生產(chǎn)鏈[21]等研究。國(guó)內(nèi)學(xué)者鄧志國(guó)和陳錫康[22-23]利用中國(guó)多張序列投入產(chǎn)出表發(fā)現(xiàn)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中存在的重要生產(chǎn)鏈條,并對(duì)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)鏈的演化情況進(jìn)行分析,采用脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)和方差分解分析產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈上下游部門之間的動(dòng)態(tài)影響情況。
現(xiàn)有文獻(xiàn)雖取得了較多極具影響力的研究成果,但是較少地深入產(chǎn)業(yè)系統(tǒng)內(nèi)部,未能將產(chǎn)業(yè)部門間的深層經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系和碳排放的順次轉(zhuǎn)移進(jìn)行有效對(duì)接,導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)業(yè)部門碳排放波及效應(yīng)的研究呈現(xiàn)空白。同時(shí),現(xiàn)有的研究都直接考察一個(gè)部門與另一個(gè)部門的聯(lián)系或某一部門變化對(duì)另一部門碳排放的影響,將多個(gè)部門同時(shí)納入相互關(guān)聯(lián)的研究尚不成熟。鑒于此,本研究借鑒于“生產(chǎn)鏈”概念的提出,利用投入產(chǎn)出技術(shù)構(gòu)建碳APL測(cè)算指標(biāo),并以此對(duì)產(chǎn)業(yè)碳排放波及效應(yīng)及碳波及鏈進(jìn)行識(shí)別,為產(chǎn)業(yè)系統(tǒng)的碳減排研究開(kāi)辟新的視角。
錢明霞等:產(chǎn)業(yè)部門碳排放波及效應(yīng)分析中國(guó)人口·資源與環(huán)境2014年第12期2研究方法設(shè)計(jì)
2.1產(chǎn)業(yè)部門能源消費(fèi)碳排放強(qiáng)度測(cè)算方法
國(guó)際原子能機(jī)構(gòu)(International Atomic Energy Agency, 簡(jiǎn)稱IAEA)的研究報(bào)告中曾指出,在整個(gè)能源消耗溫室氣體排放中,一次能源(煤、石油、天然氣)產(chǎn)生的碳排放量最多,因此,依據(jù)一次能源的消耗量測(cè)算碳排放,公式如(1)所示:
其中,R是直接分配系數(shù)矩陣,其元素rij表示產(chǎn)業(yè)部門j消耗的i種中間產(chǎn)品在總產(chǎn)出中所占的比例;G是產(chǎn)業(yè)部門的完全供給系數(shù)矩陣,反映的是價(jià)格變動(dòng)導(dǎo)致最初投入增加一個(gè)單位對(duì)于總產(chǎn)出的影響;Gc是產(chǎn)業(yè)部門完全供給碳排放強(qiáng)度矩陣,反映了最初投入增加一單位對(duì)于產(chǎn)業(yè)部門碳排放的影響。同理,式(4)也能被理解為初始影響及對(duì)所有其他部門碳排放的直接影響CR、一步間接影響CR2、……,n-1步間接影響CRn。
2.2.3碳排放APL的測(cè)算
著名投入產(chǎn)出學(xué)家Erik Dietzenbacher于2005年提出APL模型,將產(chǎn)業(yè)部門之間的直接影響和間接影響定量化,借助于產(chǎn)業(yè)部門間經(jīng)濟(jì)距離來(lái)測(cè)算部門間的深層經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)聯(lián)。借鑒Dietzenbacher的研究思路,碳排放的波及效應(yīng)采用產(chǎn)業(yè)部門碳距離來(lái)體現(xiàn),描述衡量產(chǎn)業(yè)部門最終需求變動(dòng)一單位或是最初投入變動(dòng)一單位對(duì)于各部門碳排放的直接影響和間接影響。產(chǎn)業(yè)系統(tǒng)各部門的碳排放,不僅表現(xiàn)為本部門能源消耗引發(fā)的碳排放,更需要區(qū)分碳排放在部門之間的轉(zhuǎn)移,以及區(qū)分碳排放在本部門的初始影響、對(duì)于其他部門的直接影響、一步間接影響等。
假設(shè)某一產(chǎn)業(yè)部門對(duì)其他產(chǎn)業(yè)部門碳排放的直接影響就是一步碳距離造成的,將其量化為1×ci×aij,即為CA;某一產(chǎn)業(yè)部門對(duì)其他產(chǎn)業(yè)部門碳排放的一步間接影響就是二步碳距離造成的,將其量化為2×ci∑kaikakj=2CA2;……;以此類推,可以得到一部門最終需求變化對(duì)各部門碳排放的影響及波及,即為碳APL。在利用投入產(chǎn)出技術(shù)測(cè)度后向關(guān)聯(lián)和前向關(guān)聯(lián)的方法中,最被學(xué)術(shù)界認(rèn)同的是基于Leontief模型測(cè)算后向關(guān)聯(lián),基于Ghosh模型測(cè)算前向關(guān)聯(lián),因此根據(jù)影響因素的不同,可分為后向碳APLb和前向碳APLf。基于Leontief模型的后向碳APLb值Mij和基于Ghosh模型的前向碳APLf值Nij定義為:
其他服務(wù)業(yè)共4個(gè)。進(jìn)一步識(shí)別對(duì)上述4個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)存在碳供給的部門,發(fā)現(xiàn)建筑業(yè)同時(shí)對(duì)交通運(yùn)輸倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)和郵政業(yè)、其他服務(wù)業(yè)存在碳供給,農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)對(duì)食品制造及煙草加工業(yè)存在碳供給。至此,識(shí)別出了最終的二級(jí)碳供給產(chǎn)業(yè)。若將閥值調(diào)整為2.5,又可識(shí)別出農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)對(duì)批發(fā)零售住宿餐飲業(yè)有直接的碳供給,其他服務(wù)業(yè)依次對(duì)交通運(yùn)輸倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)和郵政業(yè)、采掘業(yè)存在碳供給。
同理,選取閥值為2,利用前向碳APLf值識(shí)別碳需求產(chǎn)業(yè),結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)主要識(shí)別出了煉焦化工金屬產(chǎn)品制造業(yè)和機(jī)械設(shè)備制造業(yè)的碳需求產(chǎn)業(yè),它們是:農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)、采掘業(yè)、食品制造及煙草加工業(yè)、紡織皮革木材造紙制造業(yè)、電力燃?xì)饧八纳a(chǎn)供應(yīng)業(yè)、建筑業(yè)、交通運(yùn)輸、倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)和郵政業(yè)、批發(fā)零售住宿餐飲業(yè)。其他服務(wù)業(yè)的碳需求產(chǎn)業(yè)是農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)、采掘業(yè)、食品制造及煙草加工業(yè)、電力燃?xì)饧八纳a(chǎn)供應(yīng)業(yè)、建筑業(yè)、交通運(yùn)輸、倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)和郵政業(yè)、批發(fā)零售住宿餐飲業(yè)。進(jìn)一步識(shí)別碳需求的二級(jí)產(chǎn)業(yè),發(fā)現(xiàn)農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)的碳需求產(chǎn)業(yè)是食品制造及煙草加工業(yè);紡織皮革木材造紙制造業(yè)的碳需求產(chǎn)業(yè)是采掘業(yè)、食品制造及煙草加工業(yè)、交通運(yùn)輸、倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)和郵政業(yè)及批發(fā)零售住宿餐飲業(yè);建筑業(yè)的碳需求產(chǎn)業(yè)是采掘業(yè)、電力燃?xì)饧八纳a(chǎn)供應(yīng)業(yè)、交通運(yùn)輸、倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)和郵政業(yè)及批發(fā)零售住宿餐飲業(yè);批發(fā)零售住宿餐飲業(yè)的碳需求產(chǎn)業(yè)是采掘業(yè)。
通過(guò)對(duì)各產(chǎn)業(yè)部門碳供給產(chǎn)業(yè)和碳需求產(chǎn)業(yè)的識(shí)別,形成了產(chǎn)業(yè)系統(tǒng)碳波及鏈,如圖1所示(閥值均為2),特點(diǎn)如下:其一,從產(chǎn)業(yè)上下游之間的關(guān)聯(lián)角度來(lái)看,產(chǎn)業(yè)部門之間的碳波及鏈實(shí)際上已經(jīng)呈現(xiàn)出錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜的“網(wǎng)狀”結(jié)構(gòu),而非單一的“鏈狀”結(jié)構(gòu)。其二,產(chǎn)業(yè)系統(tǒng)碳波及鏈以機(jī)械設(shè)備制造業(yè)和煉焦化工金屬產(chǎn)品制造業(yè)為上游部門,在部門自身發(fā)展的過(guò)程中產(chǎn)生了碳排放并直接和間接的影響了其他部門的碳排放;其三,農(nóng)林牧漁業(yè)、紡織皮革木材造紙制造業(yè)、食品制造及煙草加工業(yè)、交通運(yùn)輸倉(cāng)儲(chǔ)和郵政業(yè)等部門之間相互關(guān)聯(lián)和波及,互相轉(zhuǎn)移和吸收碳排放,這也同現(xiàn)階段產(chǎn)業(yè)融合發(fā)展的特征相呼應(yīng)。讓人頗感意外的是采掘業(yè)和電力燃?xì)饧八纳a(chǎn)供應(yīng)業(yè)兩大部門均位于產(chǎn)業(yè)碳波及鏈的末端,在其產(chǎn)業(yè)部門自身發(fā)展的過(guò)程中受到機(jī)械設(shè)備制造業(yè)、煉焦化工金屬產(chǎn)品制造業(yè)等部門的碳波及但未對(duì)其他部門產(chǎn)生影響,究其原因,與采掘業(yè)在尋找及開(kāi)發(fā)礦產(chǎn)及油氣資源中需要先進(jìn)的機(jī)械設(shè)備、電力燃?xì)饧八纳a(chǎn)供應(yīng)業(yè)在自身發(fā)展中需要大量的煉焦產(chǎn)品作支撐是密不可分的。
圖1產(chǎn)業(yè)部門碳波及鏈結(jié)構(gòu)圖
Fig.1Structure of carbon spread chains
of industrial sectors4結(jié)論和啟示
本文基于投入產(chǎn)出技術(shù),構(gòu)建了需求推動(dòng)和供給驅(qū)動(dòng)下的碳排放模型,并結(jié)合2007年中國(guó)投入產(chǎn)出表衡量了產(chǎn)業(yè)部門碳排放的波及效應(yīng),進(jìn)一步識(shí)別了產(chǎn)業(yè)系統(tǒng)碳波及鏈,主要的結(jié)論與啟示如下:①第二產(chǎn)業(yè)是能源消費(fèi)碳排放的大戶,尤其是煉焦化工金屬產(chǎn)品制造業(yè)和電力燃?xì)饧八纳a(chǎn)供應(yīng)業(yè),其中,電力燃?xì)饧八纳a(chǎn)供應(yīng)業(yè)的碳排放強(qiáng)度最大,為2.123t/萬(wàn)元。②在“需求拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)”的政策背景下,需求拉動(dòng)作用下的產(chǎn)業(yè)部門碳波及效應(yīng)較供給驅(qū)動(dòng)作用下的碳波及效應(yīng)更為顯著。③產(chǎn)業(yè)系統(tǒng)的碳波及已經(jīng)呈現(xiàn)出錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜的網(wǎng)狀結(jié)構(gòu)而非單一的線性鏈條,因此,節(jié)能減排工作的順利實(shí)施,必須從產(chǎn)業(yè)系統(tǒng)總體的角度進(jìn)行規(guī)劃,清楚地認(rèn)識(shí)到各個(gè)產(chǎn)業(yè)部門在產(chǎn)業(yè)碳波及鏈中的功能和作用,通過(guò)縱向和橫向的溝通與競(jìng)合,推動(dòng)部門自身和其他部門之間的協(xié)同減排。
另外,本文所運(yùn)用的基于投入產(chǎn)出分析的碳APL識(shí)別技術(shù)是一種較為簡(jiǎn)單的方法,忽略了隱含碳排放在各部門間的流動(dòng)和分配,一定程度上影響到碳排放的波及效應(yīng)。閥值的選取也限制了碳波及鏈的識(shí)別結(jié)果。其次,本文的實(shí)證結(jié)果是依據(jù)2007年的投入產(chǎn)出表獲得的,數(shù)據(jù)的滯后性以及單一年份的計(jì)算結(jié)果也影響了結(jié)論的時(shí)效性和可靠性。如何獲得最新的數(shù)據(jù)解析中國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)系統(tǒng)碳排放的演變規(guī)律及隱含碳排放的動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)聯(lián)及波及效應(yīng),促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)的低碳化發(fā)展是未來(lái)研究的重要課題。
(編輯:李琪)
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Analysis of Carbon Propogation Effects of Industrial Sectors
QIAN Mingxia1, 2LU Zhengnan2WANG Jian1
(1. School of Finance & Economics, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang Jiangsu 212013,China;
2. School of Management, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang Jiangsu 212013,China)
AbstractWith the Chinese industrial sectors as the object, the demanddriven and supplydriven carbon emission models are first built based on the inputoutput technique, and then the carbon propagation effects are measured by computing the distance between different industrial sectors with the average propagation length (APL) index for carbon emission. Based on this measurement, the carbon propagation chain of industrial sectors is finally identified using the backward carbon APL and forward carbon APL. The empirical analysis shows that the carbon emission of the second industry is 1 651 368 840 ton accounting for 98.23% of the whole carbon emissions of all industrial sectors. For this reason, the second industry is responsible for the major carbon emission. Especially, the carbon emission of coking coal, chemical and metal manufacture sector and the electricity, gas and water production/supply sector make up 87.52% of the whole carbon emission of all industrial sectors, where the electricity, gas and water production/supply sector is the most remarkable one in carbon emission intensity with 2.123 ton per 10 000 Yuan. The computation and comparison results of the mean value and standard deviation of the backward carbon APL and forward carbon APL indexes show that the forward carbon APL is big and decentralized, and that the demanddriven carbon propogation effect is more remarkable than the supplydriven one under the demanddriveeconomy background. The further identifications of carbon supply industry and carbon demand industry show that the carbon propagation chain presents an intricate network structure rather than simple linear structure. In this network structure, the machinery equipment manufacturing sector and coking coal, chemical and metal manufacture sector are in the upstream of the carbon propagation chain, while the mining sector and electricity, gas and water production/supply sector are in the downstream. For the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector, textile, leather, wood and paper manufacturing sector, foods and tobacco manufacturing sector, transport, storage and post sector, their carbon emissions associate and propagate each other, and hence their carbon emissions can transfer and absorb each other. Therefore, in order to effectively reduce the carbon emissions, it is essential to realize the function and effect of sectors in carbon propagation chain and to promote the cooperation between each other by vertical and horizontal communication and competition.
Key wordsinputoutput; carbon emissions; carbon propagation chains
[23]鄧志國(guó),陳錫康. 中國(guó)部門生產(chǎn)鏈演化趨勢(shì)及動(dòng)態(tài)影響分析[J]. 運(yùn)籌與管理,2009,18(5):19-23. [Deng Zhiguo, Chen Xikang. Analysis of the Evolvement Trend and Dynamic Impact of Sectors Production Chains in China[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2009, 18(5):19-23.]
[24]國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局. 中國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒:2008[M]. 北京: 中國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)出版社,2008. [National Bureau of Statistics of China. China Statistical Yearbook:2008[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press,2008. ]
Analysis of Carbon Propogation Effects of Industrial Sectors
QIAN Mingxia1, 2LU Zhengnan2WANG Jian1
(1. School of Finance & Economics, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang Jiangsu 212013,China;
2. School of Management, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang Jiangsu 212013,China)
AbstractWith the Chinese industrial sectors as the object, the demanddriven and supplydriven carbon emission models are first built based on the inputoutput technique, and then the carbon propagation effects are measured by computing the distance between different industrial sectors with the average propagation length (APL) index for carbon emission. Based on this measurement, the carbon propagation chain of industrial sectors is finally identified using the backward carbon APL and forward carbon APL. The empirical analysis shows that the carbon emission of the second industry is 1 651 368 840 ton accounting for 98.23% of the whole carbon emissions of all industrial sectors. For this reason, the second industry is responsible for the major carbon emission. Especially, the carbon emission of coking coal, chemical and metal manufacture sector and the electricity, gas and water production/supply sector make up 87.52% of the whole carbon emission of all industrial sectors, where the electricity, gas and water production/supply sector is the most remarkable one in carbon emission intensity with 2.123 ton per 10 000 Yuan. The computation and comparison results of the mean value and standard deviation of the backward carbon APL and forward carbon APL indexes show that the forward carbon APL is big and decentralized, and that the demanddriven carbon propogation effect is more remarkable than the supplydriven one under the demanddriveeconomy background. The further identifications of carbon supply industry and carbon demand industry show that the carbon propagation chain presents an intricate network structure rather than simple linear structure. In this network structure, the machinery equipment manufacturing sector and coking coal, chemical and metal manufacture sector are in the upstream of the carbon propagation chain, while the mining sector and electricity, gas and water production/supply sector are in the downstream. For the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector, textile, leather, wood and paper manufacturing sector, foods and tobacco manufacturing sector, transport, storage and post sector, their carbon emissions associate and propagate each other, and hence their carbon emissions can transfer and absorb each other. Therefore, in order to effectively reduce the carbon emissions, it is essential to realize the function and effect of sectors in carbon propagation chain and to promote the cooperation between each other by vertical and horizontal communication and competition.
Key wordsinputoutput; carbon emissions; carbon propagation chains
[23]鄧志國(guó),陳錫康. 中國(guó)部門生產(chǎn)鏈演化趨勢(shì)及動(dòng)態(tài)影響分析[J]. 運(yùn)籌與管理,2009,18(5):19-23. [Deng Zhiguo, Chen Xikang. Analysis of the Evolvement Trend and Dynamic Impact of Sectors Production Chains in China[J]. Operations Research and Management Science, 2009, 18(5):19-23.]
[24]國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局. 中國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)年鑒:2008[M]. 北京: 中國(guó)統(tǒng)計(jì)出版社,2008. [National Bureau of Statistics of China. China Statistical Yearbook:2008[M]. Beijing: China Statistics Press,2008. ]
Analysis of Carbon Propogation Effects of Industrial Sectors
QIAN Mingxia1, 2LU Zhengnan2WANG Jian1
(1. School of Finance & Economics, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang Jiangsu 212013,China;
2. School of Management, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang Jiangsu 212013,China)
AbstractWith the Chinese industrial sectors as the object, the demanddriven and supplydriven carbon emission models are first built based on the inputoutput technique, and then the carbon propagation effects are measured by computing the distance between different industrial sectors with the average propagation length (APL) index for carbon emission. Based on this measurement, the carbon propagation chain of industrial sectors is finally identified using the backward carbon APL and forward carbon APL. The empirical analysis shows that the carbon emission of the second industry is 1 651 368 840 ton accounting for 98.23% of the whole carbon emissions of all industrial sectors. For this reason, the second industry is responsible for the major carbon emission. Especially, the carbon emission of coking coal, chemical and metal manufacture sector and the electricity, gas and water production/supply sector make up 87.52% of the whole carbon emission of all industrial sectors, where the electricity, gas and water production/supply sector is the most remarkable one in carbon emission intensity with 2.123 ton per 10 000 Yuan. The computation and comparison results of the mean value and standard deviation of the backward carbon APL and forward carbon APL indexes show that the forward carbon APL is big and decentralized, and that the demanddriven carbon propogation effect is more remarkable than the supplydriven one under the demanddriveeconomy background. The further identifications of carbon supply industry and carbon demand industry show that the carbon propagation chain presents an intricate network structure rather than simple linear structure. In this network structure, the machinery equipment manufacturing sector and coking coal, chemical and metal manufacture sector are in the upstream of the carbon propagation chain, while the mining sector and electricity, gas and water production/supply sector are in the downstream. For the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector, textile, leather, wood and paper manufacturing sector, foods and tobacco manufacturing sector, transport, storage and post sector, their carbon emissions associate and propagate each other, and hence their carbon emissions can transfer and absorb each other. Therefore, in order to effectively reduce the carbon emissions, it is essential to realize the function and effect of sectors in carbon propagation chain and to promote the cooperation between each other by vertical and horizontal communication and competition.
Key wordsinputoutput; carbon emissions; carbon propagation chains