董永鶴，趙中辛，劉　菲

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公眾大型集會(huì)的應(yīng)急備災(zāi)——上海外灘“12·31”踩踏事件的經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)

董永鶴1，趙中辛2，劉菲1

作者單位： 200120上海，同濟(jì)大學(xué)附屬東方醫(yī)院：1.消化內(nèi)科，2.中華災(zāi)難醫(yī)學(xué)分會(huì)

Emergency preparedness for mass gatherings: lessons of Dec 31 stampede on the Bund of Shanghai

DONG Yonghe1, ZHAO Zhongxin2, and LIU Fei1. 1. Department of Gastroenterology, 2. Chinese Society of Disaster Medicine, East Hospital Affilited to Tongji University,Shanghai 200120, China

Correspoding author: ZHAO Zhongxin, E-mail: zhongxinzhao1999@163.com

According to WHO, a gathering of persons was usually defined as more than a specified number of persons at a specific location for a specific purpose （a social function, large public event or sports competition） for a defined period of time[1]. A critical risk of these mass gatherings is stamped. Dec 31, 2014 Shanghai stampede was known mostly for its particular time period （New Year’s Eve）, the large amount of casualties, and the various rumors after it.

世界衛(wèi)生組織通常將一個(gè)在特定的時(shí)間和地點(diǎn)，為了特定的目的（如社交活動(dòng)，大型公眾事件或者運(yùn)動(dòng)競(jìng)賽等），超過特定人數(shù)的集會(huì)定義為公眾集會(huì)[1]。而大型公眾集會(huì)的一個(gè)重要危險(xiǎn)因素便為踩踏事故?！?2·31”上海外灘踩踏事件為眾人所熟知是由于其發(fā)生的敏感時(shí)間段（新年前夜），造成的傷亡人數(shù)以及不脛而走的謠言。

1　What happened? |事件經(jīng)過

Starting from 20:00 31st of December, 2014, around 120 000 citizens and tourists made their way towards the Bund. By 23:00, the number reached 310 000. Around 23:35, a stampede happened at stairs between Chenyi Square and the observation deck, where the best viewing place for New Year’s Eve light show. The stampede caused 36 killed and 49 injured, most of whom were young students and tourists from places outside Shanghai.

從2014年12月31日 20:00起，約有12萬游客及市民陸續(xù)到達(dá)外灘。直至23:00，人數(shù)達(dá)到了31萬。大約23：35，在跨年激光表演的最佳觀景平臺(tái)和陳毅廣場(chǎng)之間的樓梯處發(fā)生了踩踏事故。此次踩踏事件造成了36人死亡，49人受傷，大部分都是年輕學(xué)生和外地游客。

Prior to the stampede, people were coming from different directions and converged at the Chenyi Square. At the stairs to observation deck, crowds at the top of the stairs pushed downward amidst the congestion, and caused individual people to tumble, immediately leading to the stampede. Just right after the stampede, policemen at the scene and surrounding bystanders made an effort to rescue the people who had fallen. However, after multiple attempts, they didn’t succeed due to the density of people. The Shanghai Medical Emergency Center was informed at 23:41 and 19 ambulances arrived on the scene at 23:49. The victims were sent to the nearest hospitals and escorted to operation rooms through the Green Channels （channel to assist ease of access）.

事故發(fā)生前，人們從各個(gè)不同的方向聚集到陳毅廣場(chǎng)。在通向觀景臺(tái)的階梯處，上層的人們向下走，形成了壓力，導(dǎo)致個(gè)別人摔倒，從而引起連鎖反應(yīng)，導(dǎo)致踩踏事故。事故發(fā)生后，現(xiàn)場(chǎng)的警察和周圍的路人立刻嘗試救助倒下的人。但由于人群密集，數(shù)次嘗試未果。上海市醫(yī)療急救中心于23：41陸續(xù)接到報(bào)警電話，19輛救護(hù)車于23：49抵達(dá)現(xiàn)場(chǎng)。傷員被立刻送往最近的醫(yī)院，并通過綠色通道被護(hù)送入手術(shù)室。

Generally speaking, the public was eager to obtain information about the process after big event. The media responded more quickly to news stories than the press conference of government, amd this brought time to breed all sorts of rumors. The one with largest impact being that the stampede was caused by a distribution of cash coupons.

通常情況下，重大事件發(fā)生后，公眾急切想要知道事件經(jīng)過，而媒體又比政府報(bào)道相對(duì)迅速，這便為孳生各種謠言提供了時(shí)間。其中影響最大的是關(guān)于某酒吧撒代金券導(dǎo)致踩踏事件的言論。

2　Why it happened? |事件原因

2.1Crowd factors |人群因素

2.1.1High density |人群密度Starting from 20:00, around 120 000 citizens and tourists made their way towards the Bund. By 23:00, the crowd number reached 310 000[2-5], a number at which people usually fail to respond rapidly enough if they stumble.

從20:00起，約有12萬市民及游客陸續(xù)到達(dá)外灘。直至23:00，人數(shù)達(dá)到了31萬[2-5]。在如此高的人群密度下，一旦發(fā)生踩踏，人們通常來不及反應(yīng)。

2.1.2Flow direction |人群方向At the stairs, a large amount of attendees were moving towards the platform,while another crowd of people were walking down the stairs, which formed the “arch phenomenon”[4,5], an unstable situation among the people that is more likely to result in a stampede.

在事故發(fā)生的階梯處，從觀景臺(tái)向下的人與仍在向上走的人群發(fā)生了擠壓，從而產(chǎn)生“成拱現(xiàn)象”[4,5]，在這樣一個(gè)不穩(wěn)定的人流對(duì)沖情況下更易導(dǎo)致踩踏事故。

2.1.3Lack of self protection knowledge |人群自我保護(hù)意識(shí)缺乏In planning a mass gathering, promotion of emergency actions and availability of public information should be provided to minimizing the public health risks. Not only there should be clear leadership and governance arrangements, but also appropriate funding[6]. There were hardly any promotions prior to or during the event that targeted on self-protection and emergency procedures in a high density crowd. In addition, an early warning system wasn’t put in place. Thus, the general public wasn’t aware of the risks and hazards in their environment.

在籌備大型公眾集會(huì)的時(shí)候，應(yīng)該提升公眾應(yīng)急行動(dòng)力和提供公眾獲取應(yīng)急信息的途徑，從而降低公眾健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。另外，對(duì)于應(yīng)急事件處置政府部門間的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)權(quán)和管理安排也應(yīng)分工明確，并且有合適的資金來支持[6]。此次事件之前、之中，并無任何關(guān)于密集人群中如何自救和應(yīng)急的知識(shí)普及。另外，預(yù)警系統(tǒng)也未啟用。因此，公眾對(duì)其中的危險(xiǎn)因素以及可能的災(zāi)害并不了解。

2.2Environmental Factors |環(huán)境因素“Management of environmental threats for mass gatherings require clear, effective, and early inter-sectoral engagement and collaboration”[6]. Due to the convenience of the public transportation, and the attraction of the Bund, Chenyi Square was a public area with the highest crowd density, making the staircase in between the two attractions a very dangerous place. It had a total of 17 steps, parted by a 14 m2platform, where the members of the crowd could be easily tripped.

對(duì)公眾集會(huì)環(huán)境中存在威脅的管理，需要明確、有效的和早期的部門間協(xié)商與合作[6]。由于公共交通的便利性，及外灘對(duì)游客的吸引力，陳毅廣場(chǎng)成為人群密度最高的公共區(qū)域。這便導(dǎo)致兩處景觀之間的臺(tái)階成為了一個(gè)十分危險(xiǎn)的區(qū)域。而由于這個(gè)17級(jí)階梯臺(tái)階中間有個(gè)14 m2的平臺(tái)，人群很容易在上面摔倒。

2.3Management Factors |管理因素

2.3.1Risk assessment |風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估“Using risk assessment and risk management to guide preparedness planning can facilitate a successful mass gathering”[6]. While planning the New Year’s Eve light show, the organizer relocated the event from the Bund to Waitanyuan and had undertaken risk assessment for the new location. However, untial 30thof December, the location change was notified to the general public. Due to the lack of communication between the organizer and the attendees, most of the tourists and citizens failed to acknowledge this location change and many showed up at the Bund. The core of the risk assessment is to ask what could happen and how likely would it happen. When changing the location, the organizer should have considered the shortage of time and risk of incomplete communication.

運(yùn)用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估和管理方法指導(dǎo)備災(zāi)計(jì)劃有助于大型公眾集會(huì)的成功舉辦[6]。此次新年燈光表演籌備時(shí)，舉辦方將地點(diǎn)改為了外灘源，并且完成了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估。但該改變?cè)?0日才向公眾宣布。由于舉辦方與參與者之間的溝通不足，導(dǎo)致大部分游客和市民并不清楚修改后的地點(diǎn)，仍然出現(xiàn)在了外灘。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的核心便是預(yù)想可能發(fā)生的事件，及該事件發(fā)生的可能性。在改變地點(diǎn)時(shí)，舉辦方應(yīng)該考慮到如此短的時(shí)間可能造成信息交流不全。

3　Surveillance and Communications|監(jiān)控和溝通

3.1Surveillance |監(jiān)控During the event, surveillance can facilitate early warning of injuries. Enhanced surveillance is needed in order to rapidly identify public health concern that occur during the mass gathering, to communicate the information about them, and to respond to them[1]. During the event, there were approximately 350 policemen in which only 7 （later 13）were placed at Chenyi Square[2,3]. This was because of the change of event venue and miscalculation of the public’s actions. The lack of manpower and overwhelming amount of people meant it was difficult to even reach where the incident happened, not to mention offered assistance to those in need. There wasn’t enough surveillance to react appropriately. What’s more, Huangpu District Public Security Bureau didn’t enforce any traffic control even though they were instructed that it was essential.

要學(xué)好《測(cè)量基礎(chǔ)》課程，不僅要求學(xué)生勤于思考、認(rèn)真學(xué)習(xí)，也要求任課教師做好教學(xué)設(shè)計(jì)，不斷創(chuàng)新，為后續(xù)專業(yè)課的學(xué)習(xí)打下扎實(shí)的基礎(chǔ)。

監(jiān)控可以在大型事件中對(duì)傷亡起到預(yù)警作用。大型公眾集會(huì)中需要有效的監(jiān)控，以此快速識(shí)別公眾集會(huì)期間的公共衛(wèi)生問題，交流這些信息，并響應(yīng)這些信息[1]。此次事件中，現(xiàn)場(chǎng)約有350名民警，其中7名（后為13名）被安排在陳毅廣場(chǎng)[2,3]。這是因?yàn)榕e辦地點(diǎn)的改變以及舉辦方對(duì)人群反應(yīng)的預(yù)測(cè)錯(cuò)誤。不足的人力及密集的人群導(dǎo)致民警根本無法進(jìn)入事發(fā)地點(diǎn)，更不用提實(shí)施救援。現(xiàn)場(chǎng)監(jiān)控不足也使應(yīng)對(duì)無力。另外，盡管被要求過，但黃浦公安分局并未進(jìn)行交通管制。

3.2Communication |溝通Communication is the rapid and coordinated dissemination of information related to the awareness of and response to public health issues. Nearly all reports of actual events or exercises of events note shortcomings in communication, which further emphasizes its importance. After 8 pm on the 31st, the crowd was increasing rapidly. However, Huangpu District Public Security Bureau failed to measure the crowd-flow rate and didn’t manage to inform the duty office, which caused insufficient police presence during the event. In addition, Huangpu District Public Security Bureau failed to adopt effective measures in time, nor did they issue warnings to Huangpu District Government to react.

溝通在這里指的是快速協(xié)調(diào)地發(fā)布關(guān)于公共衛(wèi)生問題的消息。幾乎所有對(duì)事件或演練的報(bào)道都表明了其在溝通中的缺陷，這更強(qiáng)調(diào)溝通的重要性。在31日晚8點(diǎn)之后，外灘人流量急劇增加，但黃浦公安分局并未進(jìn)行人流量測(cè)定，也并未向值班辦公室上報(bào)，從而導(dǎo)致事件中民警安排不足。另外，黃浦公安分局未及時(shí)采取有效措施，也未報(bào)請(qǐng)黃浦區(qū)政府發(fā)布預(yù)警。

4　How is Hong Kong preventing a similar situation?|香港的做法

As a big city, Hong Kong also has plenty of public events, which can be defined as mass gatherings, including its own New Year’s Eve fireworks. However, a stampede has never happened since the Lan Kwai Fong incident in 1993. What are the reasons? Firstly, the event organizer releases the plan long before the actual event. For instance, this year the plan for the New Year’s Eve fireworks has already released by Hong Kong Tourism Board, including the time, venue, and even the ideal places to watch.

作為一個(gè)大城市，香港同樣有許多大型公眾集會(huì)，包括新年煙花表演。但自從1993年的蘭桂坊事件以來，香港再未發(fā)生過踩踏事件。原因是什么呢？首先，舉辦方會(huì)在合適的時(shí)間提前公布事件的安排。比如今年的新年煙花表演，香港旅游局將安排在很早之前就已公布，包括時(shí)間、場(chǎng)地，甚至還有合適的觀看地點(diǎn)。

Furthermore, in terms of contingency plans, the Hong Kong Government is committed to providing an effective and efficient response to all emergency situations which threaten life, property and public security. Hong Kong Police Force will be informed before an event is hosted and will undertake comprehensive risk assessment to guide and advise the organizer according to the law. In addition, a preparedness plan will be made regarding the methods, strategies and equipment required in case of emergency. What’s more, Hong Kong policemen are trained to be very professional, with significant training on responding to mass gatherings[7].

此外，就應(yīng)急預(yù)案來說，香港政府致力于應(yīng)對(duì)所有對(duì)人身安全、財(cái)產(chǎn)安全及公共安全造成威脅的緊急事件。事件舉辦前需要通知香港警務(wù)處，而后警務(wù)處會(huì)進(jìn)行全面的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估并依法對(duì)舉辦方進(jìn)行指導(dǎo)。警方也會(huì)針對(duì)應(yīng)急情況下的戰(zhàn)略、方法和所需裝備制訂預(yù)案。此外，通過針對(duì)大型公眾集會(huì)快速反應(yīng)的重點(diǎn)培訓(xùn)，香港警方在應(yīng)對(duì)該類事件時(shí)做得很專業(yè)[7]。

Moreover, regarding information dissemination, Hong Kong has established the Information Services Department which is responsible for coordinating the Government’s information dissemination to the media. It will promptly issue advisory warnings, special announcements, regular situation reports and related information to the public through the media and also pass on such information to other Government Departments[8].

5　What can we do in the future? |事件的經(jīng)驗(yàn)

5.1Legacy |寶貴經(jīng)驗(yàn)After the stampede tragedy on Dec. 31st, many events, not only in Shanghai but in other major cities all over the country, were canceled. However, it is not beneficial to forbidden all the mass gatherings due to their spontaneity and uncontrollability. On the contrary, the government should evaluate the event, summarize the mistakes and learne lessons. The tragedy can be turned into a legacy that can guide the planning of future mass gatherings and improve the host community.

12月31日的踩踏事件發(fā)生后，不僅在上海，全國各地其他大型城市的很多大型活動(dòng)都被取消了。但是因?yàn)楣姶笮图瘯?huì)的隨機(jī)性和不可控性，就禁止所有群體聚集事件是無益的。相反，政府部門應(yīng)評(píng)估該次事件，總結(jié)經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)。這樣一來，悲劇事件也可成為寶貴經(jīng)驗(yàn)，被用來指導(dǎo)將來公眾大型集會(huì)活動(dòng)的籌備，也可改善舉辦活動(dòng)的社區(qū)。

5.2Comprehensive risk assessment |全面的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估As mentioned before, risk assessment is essential to the planning of mass gatherings. During the 2010 Expo, a series of risk assessments were performed in order to identify and prioritize potential disaster hazards, and in order to assist with the prioritization of preparedness activities. The approach was based on the AS/NZ 4360:2004 Standard for Risk Assessment, and was modified according to amethodology provided by the US Centers for Disease Control[9]. It demonstrates that the government is capable of conducting a comprehensive risk assessment for an event as large-scale and international as the Expo, and should similarly undertake one for all other mass gatherings.

正如前文所提到的，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估對(duì)公眾大型集會(huì)活動(dòng)的籌備至關(guān)重要。在2010年世博會(huì)中，為了發(fā)現(xiàn)并區(qū)分潛在的災(zāi)難危險(xiǎn)，以及優(yōu)化活動(dòng)的應(yīng)急準(zhǔn)備工作，相關(guān)部門提前進(jìn)行了一系列的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估。評(píng)估方法是基于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估澳/新4360：2004標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，并且對(duì)美國災(zāi)難控制中心提供的方法學(xué)進(jìn)行了改善[9]。這表明政府具備在世博會(huì)這樣大型的、國際化的事件中全面風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的能力，那么在今后的大型公眾集會(huì)活動(dòng)中也應(yīng)該并有能力進(jìn)行類似的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估。

5.3Clear responsibility of stakeholders |利益相關(guān)者們之間明確責(zé)任One of the recognized complexities of mass gatherings is that there are often very different players involved. Those stakeholders may not understand the risks, roles and responsibilities associated with the mass gatherings or the need for preparedness and effective responses to any incidents. The importance of and principles in stakeholder engagement for mass gatherings has been identified and recognized for over 10 years and remains appropriate today[6]. Different stakeholders should establish a communication system which allows the information collected before, during and after the event to be evaluated and disseminated rapidly.

大型公眾集會(huì)眾所周知的一個(gè)復(fù)雜性因素，就是事件經(jīng)常會(huì)有許多不同的參與者。這些利益相關(guān)者們可能不太理解大型公眾集會(huì)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、自己的角色和責(zé)任、應(yīng)急備災(zāi)和有效響應(yīng)對(duì)任何突發(fā)事件的必要性。在大型公眾集會(huì)中，利益相關(guān)者們參與的重要性和原則化已被發(fā)現(xiàn)和證實(shí)超過10年，而且現(xiàn)今仍然適用[6]。不同的利益相關(guān)者們之間應(yīng)建立系統(tǒng)的溝通渠道，這樣才能夠?qū)⑹录啊⒅?、后的消息快速收集并評(píng)估。

5.4Surveillance and early warning system |監(jiān)控和早期預(yù)警系統(tǒng)Like Hong Kong, the Shanghai government should establish specific departments to have better surveillance during mass gatherings. Different departments, like stakeholders, should set up a communication system which allows the government to respond more rapidly during big events. Particularly an Information Services Department is needed to inform the general public of advisory warnings, special announcements, and regular situation reports through different channels of media. It is also essential to follow and implement the national 4-level early warning system, which would inform the public about the possible emergencies, their effects, and actions to take[10].

像香港一樣，上海政府應(yīng)成立一個(gè)專門的部門，來保證大型公眾集會(huì)期間有更有效的監(jiān)控措施。而政府各個(gè)部門之間，也應(yīng)像不同利益相關(guān)者們之間一樣，建立一個(gè)系統(tǒng)的交流渠道，這樣才能讓政府部門在大型事件中更快地作出反應(yīng)。尤其應(yīng)該設(shè)立一個(gè)政府新聞處，通過不同媒體渠道向市民發(fā)出警告訊息、特別報(bào)告、定時(shí)情況匯報(bào)和有關(guān)消息。另外，執(zhí)行和落實(shí)全國4級(jí)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)也十分重要，這樣能夠及時(shí)告知公眾關(guān)于可能發(fā)生的緊急情況及其影響并應(yīng)該采取的措施[10]。

5.5Sustainability |可持續(xù)性Engaging the community and making a program sustainable is always a difficulty in mass gatherings and emergency preparedness. Regarding the Dec 31st stampede, first-aid knowledge and basic life support training would have been very helpful for reducing casualties. Therefore, firstaid financing and organizations should be funded. At the national level, legislation for on-site mutual aid is essential to encourage the general public to perform basic life support[11]. Meanwhile, Emergency Medical Services are responsible for maintaining equipment and providing easy access when required in order to perform rapid rescue.

如何讓社區(qū)參與以及如何使相關(guān)項(xiàng)目具有可持續(xù)性，一直是大型公眾集會(huì)以及應(yīng)急備災(zāi)的難點(diǎn)。就12月31日的踩踏事件來說，急救以及基礎(chǔ)生命支持知識(shí)在減少傷亡方面，本可提供巨大幫助。因此，提供相關(guān)知識(shí)培訓(xùn)的急救基金會(huì)及組織應(yīng)得到資助。就國家層面，現(xiàn)場(chǎng)互救的立法也十分必要，這便能鼓勵(lì)大眾在現(xiàn)場(chǎng)實(shí)施基礎(chǔ)生命支持[11]。同時(shí)，應(yīng)急醫(yī)療服務(wù)部門應(yīng)負(fù)責(zé)設(shè)備保養(yǎng)并為緊急救援提供綠色通道。

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

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[ 9 ]HE Y, TUAN Z A, WU F, et al. Public health preparedness for the world’s largest mass gathering: 2010 World Exposition in Shanghai, China [J]. Prehosp Disaster Med, 2012, 27（6）: 589-594.

[10]中華人民共和國中央人民政府網(wǎng). 上海市突發(fā)公共事件總體應(yīng)急預(yù)案（全文）[EB/OL].（ 2006-01-27）[2015-12-23]. http:// www.gov.cn/yjgl/2006-01/27/content_173385.htm.

[11]顧 璇，解 炯，張文超，等. 上海12·31踩踏事件應(yīng)急救援的反思[J].中國急救復(fù)蘇與災(zāi)害醫(yī)學(xué)雜志, 2015, 10（7）: 671-672.

（2016-01-10收稿2016-01-29修回）

（責(zé)任編輯郭曉）

通訊作者：趙中辛，E-mail: zhongxinzhao1999@163.com

作者簡(jiǎn)介：董永鶴，碩士研究生在讀，E-mail: danieldong92@qq.com

DOI：10.13919/j.issn.2095-6274.2016.02.016