曹振華

(蘭州文理學(xué)院 經(jīng)濟(jì)管理學(xué)院，甘肅 蘭州 730000)

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“一帶一路”對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的促進(jìn)作用

曹振華

(蘭州文理學(xué)院 經(jīng)濟(jì)管理學(xué)院，甘肅 蘭州 730000)

為了定量分析“一帶一路”策略對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的促進(jìn)作用，提出基于閉環(huán)納什均衡博弈的“一帶一路”策略，獲取我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的最優(yōu)決策選取模型，采用智能算法將我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型時(shí)，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的納什均衡模型轉(zhuǎn)化為最優(yōu)化控制問(wèn)題.建立“一帶一路”策略對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型和發(fā)展的約束參量模型，在博弈視角下建立我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展的控制決策函數(shù)，通過(guò)閉環(huán)納什均衡博弈，在利益分配契約下分析我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的區(qū)域性差異特征，實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型和增長(zhǎng)的優(yōu)化控制和預(yù)測(cè).仿真結(jié)果表明，該模型能實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)“一帶一路”策略下我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的可靠性控制和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)，有效促進(jìn)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康轉(zhuǎn)型和平穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)．

一帶一路；經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型；納什均衡；博弈

0 引 言

“一帶一路”是“絲綢之路經(jīng)濟(jì)帶”和“21世紀(jì)海上絲綢之路”的簡(jiǎn)稱.“一帶一路”的建設(shè)為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展和轉(zhuǎn)型帶來(lái)了前所未有的契機(jī)，推進(jìn)“一帶一路”建設(shè)是中國(guó)在亞洲合作政策的具體體現(xiàn).而今，我國(guó)在“一帶一路”沿線國(guó)家的境外經(jīng)貿(mào)合作區(qū)發(fā)展勢(shì)頭很好，為我國(guó)和沿線地區(qū)國(guó)家打造絲綢之路，發(fā)展經(jīng)濟(jì)帶核心區(qū)提供了充分的條件.沿線國(guó)家在政策、設(shè)施、貿(mào)易、資金等建設(shè)方面，將會(huì)隨著“一帶一路”策略的深入發(fā)展而發(fā)生經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型.通過(guò)充分依靠中國(guó)與有關(guān)國(guó)家既有的雙多邊機(jī)制，共同打造政治互信、經(jīng)濟(jì)融合、文化包容的“一帶一路”經(jīng)濟(jì)區(qū)和利益共同體，具有重要意義.根據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)，2015年，我國(guó)承接“一帶一路”相關(guān)國(guó)家服務(wù)外包合同金額約178.3億美元，執(zhí)行金額約121.5億美元，同比2014年分別增長(zhǎng)42.6%和23.45%，可見(jiàn)，“一帶一路”策略對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型和發(fā)展具有較好的促進(jìn)作用.為了定量分析“一帶一路”策略對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的轉(zhuǎn)型的影響，準(zhǔn)確指導(dǎo)宏觀決策，為政府決策提供參考依據(jù)，需要建立“一帶一路”策略對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)學(xué)關(guān)系模型，相關(guān)算法受到廣大經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)者的重視[1-3]．

我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)學(xué)模型，主要建立在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)時(shí)間序列的非線性分析和博弈控制基礎(chǔ)上，傳統(tǒng)的我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)控制模型建立方法有：基于模糊神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)控制的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)控制分析模型、基于粒子群智能算法的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)模型和基于自適應(yīng)Lyapunove泛函控制的經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型定量分析模型等[4-7]，上述方法的實(shí)現(xiàn)是建立在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的指數(shù)序列的非線性時(shí)間序列分析基礎(chǔ)上，通過(guò)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)指數(shù)序列進(jìn)行相空間重構(gòu)，結(jié)合相應(yīng)的智能控制算法，進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型和增長(zhǎng)的客觀定量評(píng)價(jià)和分析，取得了較好的研究成果.文獻(xiàn)[8]提出基于閉環(huán)供應(yīng)鏈離散高階控制的經(jīng)濟(jì)帶增長(zhǎng)控制模型，對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶交通樞紐、商貿(mào)物流和文化科教等參量特征進(jìn)行閉環(huán)供應(yīng)鏈控制，提高了對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)指數(shù)預(yù)測(cè)的準(zhǔn)確性，但是該模型計(jì)算開(kāi)銷較大，隨著核心經(jīng)濟(jì)圈的干擾參量的增多，導(dǎo)致對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)的準(zhǔn)確度不高；文獻(xiàn)[9]提出一種基于自適應(yīng)均衡調(diào)度和重疊競(jìng)爭(zhēng)控制的“一帶一路”投資額同比增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)算法，實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)“一帶一路”經(jīng)濟(jì)體的投資額增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型預(yù)測(cè)，并對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行融合處理，提高了“一帶一路”經(jīng)濟(jì)圈經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和投資變化的定量預(yù)測(cè)精度，但是該方法需要大量的先驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)作為指導(dǎo)，“一帶一路”策略指導(dǎo)下我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)缺乏，導(dǎo)致信息評(píng)估精度不高．

因此，提出基于閉環(huán)納什均衡博弈的“一帶一路”策略，建立我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的最優(yōu)決策選取模型.首先構(gòu)建“一帶一路”策略對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型和發(fā)展的約束參量模型，給出閉環(huán)納什均衡博弈的概念，采用閉環(huán)納什均衡博弈實(shí)現(xiàn)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型控制和預(yù)測(cè)模型構(gòu)建，最后通過(guò)數(shù)值仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)進(jìn)行性能測(cè)試，得出有效性結(jié)論．

1 約束參量模型構(gòu)建及問(wèn)題描述

1.1 約束參量模型的建立

(1)

結(jié)合約束條件，得到經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的利益共同體選擇概率為

(2)

(3)

(4)

利用離散自適應(yīng)均衡調(diào)度模型，實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)“一帶一路”策略下我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的經(jīng)濟(jì)增值指數(shù)的平均值預(yù)測(cè)，計(jì)算式為

(5)

其中，Ep為全局性經(jīng)濟(jì)增值的平均值;rp(k)為我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型帶來(lái)的能源損耗;yp(k)為金融風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù).采用無(wú)差拍磁鏈控制方程進(jìn)行自適應(yīng)迭代，得到經(jīng)濟(jì)增值預(yù)測(cè)的迭代方程，即多輸入多輸出的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)控制模型，表達(dá)式為

(6)

在“一帶一路”策略下，綜合考慮市場(chǎng)需求前景，利用我國(guó)實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)和產(chǎn)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)的全局性、成長(zhǎng)性等特點(diǎn)進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估，以此為指導(dǎo)思想，獲得“一帶一路”策略對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型帶來(lái)發(fā)展期望效用函數(shù)，建立控制模型[10-15]．

1.2 控制決策函數(shù)的獲取

在建立“一帶一路”策略對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型和發(fā)展的約束參量模型基礎(chǔ)上，采用合作博弈思想，在博弈視角下分析“一帶一路”策略對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展的控制決策作用，構(gòu)建控制決策函數(shù)，圍繞“調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)、轉(zhuǎn)方式”的經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型策略[16-20]，得到“一帶一路”策略下我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策的控制目標(biāo)函數(shù)為

(7)

(8)

(9)

此時(shí)，模糊神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)控制輸入層神經(jīng)元的學(xué)習(xí)函數(shù)為

(10)

式中，1和-1分別表示經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的增長(zhǎng)判決輸出和抑制判決輸出.在“一帶一路”策略的帶動(dòng)下，當(dāng)滿足v-p1+ρ1A1≥0且v-p1+ρ1A1≥δ·v-p2+ρ2A2，采用變系數(shù)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)正態(tài)模型進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的增長(zhǎng)和抑制預(yù)測(cè)，得到?jīng)Q策變量為

(11)

在“一帶一路”策略下，當(dāng)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的T統(tǒng)計(jì)值滿足δ·v-p2+ρ2A2≥0且v-p1+ρ1A1<δ·v-p2+ρ2A2，且經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)正指數(shù)增長(zhǎng)時(shí)，我國(guó)的國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)總值滿足決策函數(shù)

(12)

當(dāng)p2-ρ2A2≥δ·(p1-ρ1A1)時(shí)，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與“一帶一路”策略具有正相關(guān)關(guān)系，模型中的系數(shù)均為正數(shù)，為經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展起到了一定作用．

2 最優(yōu)決策選取模型

在構(gòu)建“一帶一路”策略對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型和發(fā)展的約束參量模型和控制決策函數(shù)的基礎(chǔ)上，進(jìn)行控制決策模型的改進(jìn)設(shè)計(jì)，提出基于閉環(huán)納什均衡博弈的“一帶一路”策略下我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型最優(yōu)決策選取模型，采用智能算法將我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型過(guò)程中經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的納什均衡模型轉(zhuǎn)化為最優(yōu)化控制問(wèn)題.建立一個(gè)閉環(huán)納什均衡博弈模型進(jìn)行我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的最優(yōu)策略分析，當(dāng)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的相關(guān)函數(shù)p2-ρ2A2≤p1-ρ1A1-Q(1-δ)時(shí)，我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展帶來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)契機(jī)系數(shù)滿足δ·(p1-ρ1A1)≤p2-ρ2A2≤p1-ρ1A1-Q(1-δ)，則經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)指數(shù)的時(shí)間序列通過(guò)特征分解為

(13)

(14)

在經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型周期內(nèi)，“一帶一路”策略帶動(dòng)的市場(chǎng)需求為

(15)

(16)

設(shè)πm，πr，πT分別表示在閉環(huán)納什均衡博弈鏈內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的顯著性差異系數(shù)，基于閉環(huán)納什均衡博弈，得到πm，πr，πT的表達(dá)式分別為

(17)

(18)

(19)

(20)

(21)

(22)

(23)

云電視：云電視是應(yīng)用云計(jì)算、云存儲(chǔ)技術(shù)的電視產(chǎn)品，是云設(shè)備的一種。通俗地講，就是用戶不需要單獨(dú)再為自家的電視配備所有互聯(lián)網(wǎng)功能或內(nèi)容，將電視連上網(wǎng)絡(luò)，就可以隨時(shí)從外界調(diào)取自己需要的資源或信息。

(24)

聯(lián)立方程，通過(guò)閉環(huán)納什均衡博弈，在利益分配契約下，我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的區(qū)域性差異約束函數(shù)滿足

(25)

(26)

(27)

通過(guò)上述數(shù)學(xué)模型構(gòu)建可知，在“一帶一路”策略下我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型可通過(guò)閉環(huán)納什均衡博弈，促進(jìn)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定的增長(zhǎng)，保障區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)的協(xié)調(diào)健康發(fā)展．

3 數(shù)值仿真分析

為了測(cè)試本文構(gòu)建模型在分析我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型時(shí)的有效性和可行性，進(jìn)行仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)對(duì)比分析.利用Matlab進(jìn)行仿真，取閉環(huán)納什均衡博弈控制模型的相關(guān)參數(shù)：Q=200；3c1=30；3c2=10；3cr=2；3μ1=μ2=0.01；3ρ1=ρ2=0.01；3δ=0.8.根據(jù)在“一帶一路”策略實(shí)施下對(duì)相關(guān)區(qū)域的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)采樣數(shù)據(jù)，進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)指數(shù)的促進(jìn)性分析，“一帶一路”策略對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)約束參量的貢獻(xiàn)權(quán)重指標(biāo)見(jiàn)表1.閉環(huán)納什均衡博弈下經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的利益分配參數(shù)設(shè)定結(jié)果見(jiàn)表2．

表 1 “一帶一路”策略對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)約束參量的貢獻(xiàn)權(quán)重指標(biāo)

Table 1 The “Belt and Road” strategy for China’s economic growth constraint parameter contribution weight index

p1np2nprw1Dw2DwrDw1S1435265505422489273810934543w2SwrSθπDRπDDπDMπDT2354221201063421342223454432

表 2 閉環(huán)納什均衡博弈下經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型 的利益分配參數(shù)Table 2 Benefit distribution parameters of economic transition under closed loop Nash equilibrium game

根據(jù)上述仿真環(huán)境和參數(shù)設(shè)定，采用本文模型，定量分析“一帶一路”策略對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的促進(jìn)性作用，得到在“一帶一路”策略下，我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展的均衡控制仿真輸出結(jié)果，如圖1所示．

由圖1可知，采用本文模型進(jìn)行我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)控制，能實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的區(qū)域性和行業(yè)性的均衡分布控制，提高經(jīng)濟(jì)健康轉(zhuǎn)型和發(fā)展的能力.為了定量分析性能，采用本文模型和傳統(tǒng)模型，以經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的指數(shù)曲線為測(cè)試指標(biāo)，分析在本文模型控制和傳統(tǒng)模型下經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)性能，得到仿真結(jié)果如圖2所示．由圖2可知，采用傳統(tǒng)模型進(jìn)行定量分析時(shí)，其經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)指數(shù)約為16.4%，且整體處于上升狀態(tài)，但其上升趨勢(shì)較慢，不適合大范圍使用.采用本文模型進(jìn)行時(shí)，其經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)指數(shù)隨著輻射區(qū)域的增加而增加，約為28.5%.相比傳統(tǒng)模型，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)指數(shù)增加了12.1%，具有一定的優(yōu)越性．

圖 1 “一帶一路”策略下我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展的均衡控制分布 圖 2 “一帶一路”策略對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的促進(jìn)性定量分析對(duì)比Fig.1 Balanced development of China′s economic transformation control distribution of the “Belt and Road” strategy Fig.2 Quantitative analysis and comparison of the promotion of the “Belt and Road” strategy to the economic transformation of China

4 結(jié)束語(yǔ)

為了定量分析“一帶一路”策略對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的促進(jìn)性作用，提出基于閉環(huán)納什均衡博弈的“一帶一路”策略對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的最優(yōu)決策選取模型，構(gòu)建“一帶一路”策略對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型和發(fā)展的約束參量模型，在博弈視角下進(jìn)行我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型發(fā)展的控制決策函數(shù)構(gòu)建，通過(guò)閉環(huán)納什均衡博弈，在利益分配契約下分析我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的區(qū)域性差異特征，實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型和增長(zhǎng)的優(yōu)化控制和預(yù)測(cè).實(shí)驗(yàn)分析表明，本文模型能實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的可靠性控制和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)，有效促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的平穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)．

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編輯、校對(duì)：武 暉

Promotion of "Belt and Road" strategy′s effect on economic transformation in China

CAO Zhenhua

(School of Management，Lanzhou University of Arts and Science，Lanzhou 730000， China)

In order to quantitatively analyze the promoter action of the strategy.The “Belt and Road” strategy based on closed-loop Nash equilibrium game is proposed to obtain the optimal decision selection model of economic transformation in China. The intelligent algorithms are used to transform the Nash equilibrium model of economic growth in China′s economic transition period into the problem of optimal control. The constraint parameter model is set up. In the perspective of game theory, the decision control function is established. Through the closed loop Nash equilibrium game, we analyze the regional differences of economic growth in China under the contract of interest distribution to realize the optimal control and forecast of economic transformation and growth. The simulation results show that this model can realize the reliability control and economic growth forecast of China's economic transformation in the “Belt and Road”strategy, and effectively promote the healthy transition and steady growth of China′s economy.

Belt and road; economic transformation; Nash equilibrium; game theory

1674-649X(2016)04-0516-07

10.13338/j.issn.1674-649x.2016.04.019

2016-05-25

曹振華(1979—)，男，甘肅省蘭州市人，蘭州文理學(xué)院講師，研究方向?yàn)榻?jīng)濟(jì)管理.E-mail:13919177002@139.com

曹振華.“一帶一路”對(duì)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型的促進(jìn)作用[J].西安工程大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)，2016，30(4)：516-522.

CAOZhenhua.Promotionof"BeltandRoad"strategy′soneconomictransformationinChina[J].JournalofXi′anPolytechnicUniversity,2016，30(4)：516-522.

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