東亞金融危機(jī)：二十周年回顧與展望(筆談)

[主持人語] 東亞金融危機(jī)已經(jīng)過去20年，但是學(xué)術(shù)界和政策層面的反思仍然在延續(xù)。危機(jī)爆發(fā)之后，東亞國家抱團(tuán)取暖，積極探尋區(qū)域內(nèi)貨幣金融合作的道路。當(dāng)時，在歐元區(qū)實(shí)踐的鼓舞之下，關(guān)于東亞地區(qū)貨幣金融合作的研究也開始涌現(xiàn)。但隨后，由于合作缺乏實(shí)質(zhì)性進(jìn)展、中日兩個大國關(guān)系緊張等原因，合作進(jìn)程一度陷入緩慢的狀態(tài)。尤其在2008年金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)之后，歐元區(qū)國家面臨嚴(yán)重的主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)，歐元區(qū)的實(shí)踐也一度受到研究者和國際市場的懷疑；再加上中日雙邊關(guān)系的一度惡化——在上述背景下，東亞地區(qū)貨幣金融合作的未來也被蒙上了一層陰影。

不過近些年來，東亞區(qū)內(nèi)、區(qū)外的國際環(huán)境又有所變化，一些條件開始朝著有利于東亞貨幣金融合作與經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的方向前進(jìn)。首先，2014年美聯(lián)儲開始宣布退出量寬，并于2015年末開始進(jìn)入加息周期，與此同時日本和歐央行等多個貨幣當(dāng)局開始實(shí)行負(fù)利率。國際金融市場形勢更為復(fù)雜、脆弱，跨國資本的流動也更為劇烈和頻繁?？陀^上，東亞區(qū)內(nèi)國家抱團(tuán)取暖的需要再次上升。

其次，中國與日本在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)、尤其是東亞一體化當(dāng)中的作用發(fā)生了戲劇性的變化。2005年，中國GDP總量約為日本的一半，2010年中國在這一指標(biāo)上第一次追平了日本，2014年，中國已經(jīng)是日本的兩倍。同時，中國也已經(jīng)成為東亞絕大部分經(jīng)濟(jì)體的第一大貿(mào)易伙伴，人民幣也在發(fā)揮著更為重要的作用。

中國已經(jīng)成為東亞經(jīng)濟(jì)、金融合作的最重要利益相關(guān)者和推動者。與之相應(yīng)，中國學(xué)者的聲音也將在該領(lǐng)域產(chǎn)生越來越重要的影響。所以，我們有必要跳出既有的框架，以今天的視角，來重新審視20年前的東亞金融危機(jī)。

EastAsianFinancialCrisis:ReviewsandProspectsat20thAnniversary

[Host’sWords] The financial crisis in East Asia has passed for 20 years，but the reflection of academic and political area is still ongoing. After the crisis，East Asian countries united together for survive，and actively sought monetary and financial cooperation. At that time，encouraged by the practice of euro area，the researches on monetary and financial cooperation of East Asia began to spring up. However，the cooperation process once became slow，because of the lack of substantive progress in cooperation，the rising tension between China and Japan and other causes. Especially after the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008，the euro zone countries faced severe sovereign debt crisis；the practice of euro zone was suspected by researchers and international market；the bilateral relations between China and Japan became worse. All these resulted in a gloomy future of monetary and financial cooperation of East Asia.

However，the environment has been changed both inside and outside East Asia in recent years，some conditions have turned to contribute to the monetary and financial cooperation and economic integration of East Asia. Firstly，U.S. Federal Reserve in 2014 announced its withdrawal from QE and began to enter the interest rate cycle at the end of 2015，while Japan and the European Central Bank and many other monetary authorities began to implement negative interest rates. The situation of international financial market was more complex and fragile，and the transnational capital flow was more intense and frequent. Objectively，the need for East Asia countries to unite together has become intense again.

Secondly，the role of China and Japan has changed dramatically in the international economy，especially in the integration of East Asia. In 2005，China’s GDP was about the half of Japan’s. In 2010，for the first time，China’s GDP caught up with Japan’s. In 2014，China’s GDP was two times that of Japan. At the same time，China became the first trading partner of most economies in East Asia，and the RMB also played a more important role.

China has become the most important stakeholder and promoter of economic and financial cooperation of East Asia. Correspondingly，the voice of Chinese scholars will have more and more important influence in this field. Therefore，it is necessary for us to jump out of the existing framework，and re-examine the East Asian financial crisis 20 years ago from today’s perspective.