文／羅伯特·戴克爾 譯／張群群

【編者按】2018年是中國改革開放40周年，本刊從本期起特別推出系列文章，以作紀(jì)念。

1中國社會科學(xué)院財經(jīng)戰(zhàn)略研究院研究員，中國社會科學(xué)院研究生院教授、博士生導(dǎo)師。出版《論交易組織及其生成和演變》（專著）、《全球失衡與布雷頓森林的教訓(xùn)》（譯著）、《反壟斷經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)》（合譯）等。

China’s growth and economic reform since the late 1970s has been spectacular, with average GDP growth reaching around 9.7 percent from 1978 to 2016. In the last 40 years, China went from a poor developing country to a nation with the world’s second largest economy. It will have the highest GDP in the world—exceeding that in the US—in the next decade or so.

[2] In 1978, China faced a difficult situation both in domestic and abroad. It is under this situation that China started its domestic reform and implemented household contract responsibility system in the agricultural sector, a wise decision. After the reforms, household farm-

自20世紀(jì)70年代末以來，中國實施了引人注目的經(jīng)濟(jì)改革，實現(xiàn)了驚人的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。從1978年到2016年，中國平均每年的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）增長率達(dá)到9.7%左右。在過去40年里，中國從一個貧窮的發(fā)展中國家成長為世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體。約十年后，其GDP規(guī)模將超越美國，成為世界頭號經(jīng)濟(jì)大國。

[2] 1978年的中國內(nèi)外交困。恰恰是在這樣的處境下，中國開啟了國內(nèi)改革，在農(nóng)業(yè)部門推行了家庭承包責(zé)任制，這是個明智的決策。改革后，ing replaced collective farming. With the more efficient farming system, farmers could now claim more output if they put in more efforts. The result was an enormous jump in agricultural output.

[3] The increased agricultural productivity meant that workers had more time to work in local rural enterprises, providing goods and services for the local and regional economies. Rural enterprises boomed, forti fi ed2fortify加強(qiáng)，強(qiáng)化。by increasing income of farm households, and rising supplies of agricultural workers and inputs.

[4] Encouraged by the explosive growth in agriculture and in rural industry, government officials pushed reform of urban State-owned enterprises (SOEs).Initially, owing to the unemployment problem that SOEs reform will cause,SOE reform was gradual. However,starting in the mid-1990s, reform moved quickly apace3apace迅速地，急速地。.

[5] Starting in the late 1980s, there was also growth in the private, non-State sector. Millions of villagers migrated to rural and urban industries.There was rapid growth in the service sector as tens of millions responded to price signals and established restaurants, private schools, stores and motorcycle repair shops.

[6] Stimulated by the expansion of markets, labor mobility and price liberalization, China’s economy rapidly家庭農(nóng)業(yè)取代了集體農(nóng)業(yè)。借助于這種更有效率的農(nóng)耕制度，農(nóng)民們?nèi)绻度敫嗟呐?，就能得到更多的產(chǎn)出。其結(jié)果就是農(nóng)產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)量猛增。

[3]農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)率的增長意味著勞動者有更多時間在當(dāng)?shù)氐泥l(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)里做工，為地方和區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)提供商品和服務(wù)。農(nóng)民家庭收入的增長和農(nóng)民工與投入品供應(yīng)的增加，支撐了鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)企業(yè)的蓬勃發(fā)展。

[4]農(nóng)業(yè)和鄉(xiāng)村工業(yè)實現(xiàn)了突飛猛進(jìn)的增長，政府官員受到鼓舞，推行了城市國有企業(yè)的改革。最初，由于國企改革會造成失業(yè)問題，國有企業(yè)的改革進(jìn)展緩慢。然而，從1990年代中期開始，改革很快高速推進(jìn)。

[5] 1980年代末開始，私人部門即非國有部門也有了增長。數(shù)百萬鄉(xiāng)村居民轉(zhuǎn)移到鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)工業(yè)和城市工業(yè)中。因為數(shù)千萬人響應(yīng)價格信號，開辦餐館、私立學(xué)校、商店和摩托車修理店，服務(wù)部門增長迅速。

[6]在市場擴(kuò)大、勞動力流動和價格放開的刺激下，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)很快邁向國際化。此外，中國充分意識到日本和韓國通moved towards internationalization. Besides, China was quite aware of the success Japan and South Korea have had through international trade and wanted to emulate them.

[7] Internationalization started from the Guangdong and Fujian provinces,and four special economic zones were established in these provinces. Close to Hong Kong and Taiwan, the special economic zones enticed4entice吸引。many Hong Kong and Taiwan entrepreneurs to strengthen businesses with Chinese mainland, to take advantage of the lower labor and land costs. In turn, these entrepreneurs provided capital, management, technical expertise and international connections.

[8] China’s cities rose along the coast,where foreign direct investment and import-export trade saw an increase.Western firms moved in to these cities along the coast, allowing deep integration between local Chinese businesses and Western technology and business practices.

[9] Chinese businesses learned a lot from these Western businesses and from each other, as competition among Chinese companies intensi fi ed. It was only a matter of time that overseas travel and study, and thereby information about cutting edge ways of doing business permeated deeply into the Chinese pri-過國際貿(mào)易所獲得的成功，想要效法它們。

[7]國際化從廣東和福建兩省開始，在這兩個省份設(shè)立了四個經(jīng)濟(jì)特區(qū)。由于鄰近中國香港和臺灣，這些經(jīng)濟(jì)特區(qū)吸引了許多港臺企業(yè)家，他們?yōu)榱死昧畠r的勞動力和土地，加強(qiáng)了與中國大陸的商業(yè)聯(lián)系。反過來，這些企業(yè)家則提供了資本、管理技能、專業(yè)技術(shù)和國際聯(lián)系。

[8]中國的城市沿著海岸線拔地而起，外商直接投資和進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易在這些地區(qū)有所增長。西方企業(yè)遷入這些沿海城市，使當(dāng)?shù)仄髽I(yè)與西方技術(shù)和商業(yè)慣例得以深度整合。

[9]中國企業(yè)向這些西方企業(yè)學(xué)了很多，而且，隨著中國企業(yè)之間的競爭加劇，它們彼此也學(xué)到了不少東西。出國旅游和留學(xué)，以及由此獲得的有關(guān)最新經(jīng)營方式的信息，深深地滲透到中國私有經(jīng)濟(jì)中，只是時間問題。因為國內(nèi)居民收入增長，對消費(fèi)品的需求也在增長。這導(dǎo)致了國內(nèi)市場的茁壯成長，而企業(yè)家們渴望去滿足這個市場，阿里巴巴成交額的驚人增長就是個典型的例

〔〕〔〕vate economy. As domestic household incomes grew, so did the demand for consumer products. It leads to a thriving domestic market that entrepreneurs were eager to satisfy, as exempli fi ed by the staggering growth in Alibaba sales.

[10] What then should China do for the next 40 years? As mentioned at the outset, in a decade or so, China will become the world’s largest economy.Much like the US was in the previous 40 years, in the next 40 years, China must evolve to become the engine of global growth. I am con fi dent that China can make this transition. ■證。

[10]之后，中國應(yīng)當(dāng)為接下來的40年做些什么呢？正如開篇所提到的，約10年之后，中國將成為世界最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體。就像美國在此前40年里所做的一樣，在此后40年里，中國必定發(fā)展成為全球增長的引擎。我堅信，中國能夠成功實現(xiàn)這個轉(zhuǎn)型。 □