黃亞

While much attention is paid to Chinas largest cities， the countrys smaller urban centers could become the larger driver of growth and consumer spending in the coming decade.

The population of Shanghai， at around 24 million， nearly rivals that of Texas （27 million） and Chinas other large cities arent far behind. Consumers in these urban behemoths1—along with their rising per capita net worth—have naturally captured the focus of domestic and international brands.

As China develops into a higher income society， private consumption could grow from its current $4.4 trillion to $9.7 trillion by 2030， according to a recent report from Morgan Stanley Research. Many investors believe that top-tier cities， which are either provincial capitals or so-called special economic zones， will continue to dominate Chinas consumer economy.

However， the lower-tier cities， which include prefecture- and county-level urban enclaves and already comprise 59% of the countrys GDP and 73% of its population， may be bigger engines for spending to fuel economic growth， according to Robin Xing， Morgan Stanleys Chief China Economist. “While investors perceive larger cities as offering the most important consumer base， we believe that lower-tier cities will be bigger， wealthier and more eager to spend， and could contribute two-thirds of incremental growth in national private consumption toward 2030，” Xing says.

For investors who are confident in Chinas continuing growth， but uncertain about where to find it， these lower-tier cities， such as Xuzhou and Nantong in the east， Quanzhou in the south， or Baoding in the north， may offer significant prospects， as they start to flex their considerable consumer might2. Indeed， a number of industries are well-positioned to benefit—from consumer goods and domestic autos to the travel， entertainment and gaming industries.

Population shift

Urban population growth has slowed or even turned negative in Chinas large cities. Case in point， Shanghais urban population size has contracted since 2015， and policymakers in Beijing are making efforts to relocate people out of the city via plans to set up the “Xiongan New District，” to ease traffic congestion and overcrowding issues.

In contrast， urban population in lower-tier cities—already nine-times and triple that of tier-1 and tier-2 cities， respectively—has increased at a relatively higher pace over the past five years， due to a more flexible official residency policy and higher fertility rates. “Based on a United Nations estimate， we expect 166 million people will move from rural to urban areas in the next 14 years， with 75% of them headed toward lower-tier cities，” Xing says.

Growing consumer power

Economists like to keep tabs on what they call “income convergence，” or the closing of the income gap between rich and poor. Such gaps tend to narrow for a number of reasons， including higher marginal productivity on cheaper labor and land costs in lower-tier cities， better economic integration with government-led redistribution of infrastructure and public resources from regional hubs to small neighbor cities， and broader penetration of technology， including smartphones and the internet， according to the Morgan Stanley research.

All these factors are currently at play in China. For example， the lower-tier cities have benefited from government policies that promote the development of public resources， such as hospitals， schools and transportation infrastructure. Case in point： Since March 2019， the Chinese government has announced plans to set up， not only the Xiongan New District near Beijing， but also “city clusters” in the Yangtze River Delta， and a “Bay area” blueprint for Guangdong.

“These various initiatives are likely to complement market forces and speed the catch-up growth for lower-tier cities，” Xing says.

Indeed， the leveling playing field has begun to reduce the income gap between top-tier and lower-tier city populations. A decade ago， per capita disposable income for families in Chinas smaller cities was 55% lower than those in top-tier cities; the difference has decreased to 45% today， and will likely come down further to 36% by 2030， Xing notes.

For now， however， smaller cities seeming weaknesses have become their strengths. Whereas real estate rents and prices in top-tier cities such as Shanghai and Beijing have been notoriously expensive， the relative affordability of property markets in lower-tier cities means lower living costs， which is attractive for both businesses and workers. Meanwhile， the more flexible official residency policy could bring better social-security coverage， reducing the need for precautionary passive savings3.

When combined， these advantages could encourage household consumption in smaller cities. The report forecasts that total consumption will increase by 8.7% annually toward 2030 in the lower-tier cities， compared to 6.6% in top-tier cities.

Who will benefit as small-city families grow bigger budgets？ Several industries and brands may be able to catch this consumer spending wave.

Internet

“It is worth noting that mobile payment penetration rose from 50.3% to 65.5% over 2017， with most new users coming from rural areas，” Credit Suisse analysts said in a report， adding people are spending close to five hours a day on mobile internet.

One of the most prominent examples of a company tapping into rural Chinas growth is Pinduoduo. The firm is best known for its group buying offers， that allow products to be sold cheaply in bulk， directly from the manufacturer or farmer.

Another internet company that has tapped growth in Chinas less-developed areas is Kuaishou， a Tencent-backed app for streaming short videos.

Kuaishou claims that one out of every five people in Chinas 832 poverty-stricken counties and special regions is an active user of its app. Some videos showcase local creativity—one video of live chickens arranged in the shape of the Chinese character for “blessing” garnered more than 620，000 likes.

The app has also become an e-commerce platform， with about 1.15 million users from very poor areas notching sales of 19.3 billion yuan in 2018， according to the company.

More shoes， more trips

Consumer products companies， especially sportswear and jewelry， may be the first to capture these newly minted4 middle-class customers， who will have more money for athletic shoes and accessories. Additional discretionary income also bodes well for fast food and restaurant chains， especially because many have yet to expand into lower-tier cities.

Families may be more apt to spend money on outside entertainment， including going to the movies and traveling abroad. Travel-related brands， from airlines to hotels， should all take note. Lastly， demand for cars also will likely rise in lower-tier cities， where ownership lags behind that of the larger urban areas， especially as incomes grow.

Chinas transitioning economy will continue to ripple5 across domestic and global industries. Investors looking to tap into the next wave of growth would do well to look past6 the obvious， at the potential of the countrys smaller cities.■

在中國(guó)，盡管一線大城市吸引了大部分目光，但中小城市可能成為未來(lái)十年推動(dòng)增長(zhǎng)、拉動(dòng)消費(fèi)的主要?jiǎng)恿Α?/p>

上海人口約2400萬(wàn)，接近得克薩斯州的2700萬(wàn)人口數(shù)，中國(guó)其他幾大城市的人口數(shù)量也不遑多讓。這些城市擁有龐大的消費(fèi)群體，且人均資產(chǎn)凈值持續(xù)上升，自然吸引了國(guó)內(nèi)外眾多品牌的關(guān)注。

摩根士丹利研究所最近的一份報(bào)告指出，隨著中國(guó)向高收入社會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)型，到2030年，其個(gè)人消費(fèi)可能從目前的4.4萬(wàn)億美元增長(zhǎng)至9.7萬(wàn)億美元。許多投資者認(rèn)為一線城市，不論是省會(huì)城市還是經(jīng)濟(jì)特區(qū)城市，將持續(xù)主導(dǎo)中國(guó)的消費(fèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)。

不過，摩根士丹利首席中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家邢自強(qiáng)表示，中國(guó)的中小城市，包括地級(jí)市和縣級(jí)市城市群，已經(jīng)占到全國(guó)GDP的59%和人口的73%，可能會(huì)成為刺激消費(fèi)進(jìn)而推動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的更強(qiáng)勁引擎。他指出，“雖然不少投資者認(rèn)為大城市是最重要的消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)，但我們認(rèn)為三四線城市將變得更大，居民會(huì)變得更富且消費(fèi)意愿會(huì)更強(qiáng)烈，到2030年將貢獻(xiàn)中國(guó)個(gè)人消費(fèi)遞進(jìn)增量的三分之二”。

有些投資者對(duì)中國(guó)持續(xù)發(fā)展充滿信心，卻又不能確定合適的投資方向，可以留意華東的徐州和南通、華南的泉州或華北的保定，這些城市已初步展現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁的消費(fèi)勢(shì)頭，有著巨大的前景。事實(shí)上，消費(fèi)品、家用汽車、旅游、娛樂和游戲等眾多行業(yè)都有機(jī)會(huì)從中獲利。

人口遷移

目前，中國(guó)大城市的人口增長(zhǎng)已經(jīng)放緩，甚至出現(xiàn)了負(fù)增長(zhǎng)。以上海為例，2015年以來(lái)該市常住人口數(shù)便開始收縮。中國(guó)政府也在積極籌建“雄安新區(qū)”，計(jì)劃將部分人口遷離北京，以緩解首都交通擁堵及其他因人口過密導(dǎo)致的問題。

由于中小城市落戶政策更加靈活，且生育率相對(duì)較高，其人口規(guī)模在過去五年中增長(zhǎng)相對(duì)較快，已分別達(dá)到一線和二線城市人口的9倍和3倍。邢自強(qiáng)談道：“據(jù)聯(lián)合國(guó)預(yù)計(jì)，未來(lái)14年內(nèi)將有1.66億農(nóng)村人口遷移到城市，而其中75%將遷移到中小城市?！?/p>

消費(fèi)力持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家一般都密切關(guān)注“收入趨同”（或貧富差距縮?。?。摩根士丹利研究報(bào)告稱，貧富差距縮小的原因很多，包括：中小城市勞動(dòng)力與土地成本相對(duì)低廉，從而促進(jìn)邊際生產(chǎn)率提高;政府主導(dǎo)的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和公共資源從中心城市到周邊小城市再分配，使經(jīng)濟(jì)更好地統(tǒng)籌發(fā)展;智能手機(jī)與互聯(lián)網(wǎng)等技術(shù)的廣泛深入運(yùn)用。

目前，上述因素均在中國(guó)發(fā)揮著作用。例如，政府出臺(tái)多項(xiàng)政策推動(dòng)醫(yī)院、學(xué)校、交通基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施等公共資源的開發(fā)，部分中小城市已從中受益。例如：2019年3月以來(lái)，中國(guó)政府不僅宣布要在北京附近建設(shè)雄安新區(qū)，而且規(guī)劃了長(zhǎng)三角“城市群”以及廣東“大灣區(qū)”的宏偉藍(lán)圖。

邢自強(qiáng)評(píng)論道：“這一系列舉措將彌補(bǔ)市場(chǎng)調(diào)控的不足，同時(shí)提升中小城市迎頭趕上的速度?！?/p>

誠(chéng)然，公平競(jìng)爭(zhēng)使得大城市居民與中小城市居民的收入差距開始縮小。邢自強(qiáng)指出，十年前，中國(guó)中小城市家庭人均可支配收入比一線城市低55%，如今已縮至45%，到2030年可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步減少至36%。

目前來(lái)說(shuō)，小城市表面上的某些劣勢(shì)已成為它們的優(yōu)勢(shì)。上海、北京等一線城市的房產(chǎn)租售價(jià)畸高，而中小城市的房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格相對(duì)來(lái)說(shuō)還在可承受范圍之內(nèi)，因而生活成本相對(duì)較低，對(duì)企業(yè)和勞動(dòng)者都頗具吸引力。同時(shí)，落戶政策更靈活，社保覆蓋面更廣，家庭預(yù)防性儲(chǔ)蓄需求隨之降低。

以上優(yōu)勢(shì)結(jié)合起來(lái)，將有效促進(jìn)中小城市的家庭消費(fèi)。該報(bào)告預(yù)測(cè)，到2030年，中小城市的總消費(fèi)量增長(zhǎng)率為8.7%，一線城市則僅為6.6%。

隨著中小城市家庭支出預(yù)算的增加，誰(shuí)將從中受益？以下幾個(gè)行業(yè)和品牌也許能夠趕上這一消費(fèi)浪潮。

互聯(lián)網(wǎng)

瑞士瑞信銀行分析師在一份報(bào)告中宣稱：“值得注意的是，2017年一年之內(nèi)，移動(dòng)支付普及率從50.3%提升至65.5%，且大部分新增用戶來(lái)自農(nóng)村地區(qū)。”并指出，中國(guó)人均單日使用移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)時(shí)長(zhǎng)接近5個(gè)小時(shí)。

拼多多是中國(guó)企業(yè)發(fā)掘中國(guó)農(nóng)村地區(qū)增長(zhǎng)潛力的一大突出案例。該公司以其團(tuán)購(gòu)優(yōu)惠聞名，其產(chǎn)品直接來(lái)自制造商或農(nóng)民并以低價(jià)批量銷售。

快手則是另一家利用了中國(guó)欠發(fā)達(dá)地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)發(fā)展壯大自己的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司，其主打產(chǎn)品是一款由騰訊資本支持的短視頻應(yīng)用程序。

快手官方數(shù)據(jù)顯示，中國(guó)832個(gè)貧困縣和特殊地區(qū)中，每5人中就有1位快手活躍用戶。有些視頻展示了當(dāng)?shù)厝说膭?chuàng)造力——一條讓雞群擺出“?！弊中螤畹囊曨l，收到了62萬(wàn)條“贊”。

快手已成長(zhǎng)為電子商務(wù)平臺(tái)，據(jù)該公司統(tǒng)計(jì)，僅在2018年，就約有115萬(wàn)特困地區(qū)用戶在快手上賣貨，銷售總額高達(dá)193億元。

旅游鞋和旅游業(yè)

消費(fèi)品公司，尤其是運(yùn)動(dòng)服裝和珠寶類品牌，可能成為首批抓住這些新興中產(chǎn)階級(jí)客戶的公司。該階層將有更多的錢購(gòu)買運(yùn)動(dòng)鞋和飾品。額外的可自由支配收入對(duì)于快餐和連鎖餐飲行業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)也是個(gè)好消息，特別是不少快餐連鎖店還未下沉到中小城市。

中國(guó)家庭可能更傾向于把錢花在戶外娛樂項(xiàng)目上，包括看電影和出國(guó)旅行。與旅游相關(guān)的品牌企業(yè)，包括航空公司和酒店等，都應(yīng)對(duì)此關(guān)注。最后，尤其是隨著收入的增長(zhǎng)，汽車保有量落后于大城市的中小城市，其汽車需求量也可能會(huì)上升。

中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型將持續(xù)影響著國(guó)內(nèi)外各行業(yè)。希望投身中國(guó)下一波增長(zhǎng)浪潮的投資者比較明智的做法是將目光略過大城市，投向具有潛力的中小城市。? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?□

（譯者單位：中南大學(xué)）