國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局國(guó)際統(tǒng)計(jì)信息中心

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·國(guó)際統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)·

世界經(jīng)濟(jì)主要指標(biāo)

國(guó)家統(tǒng)計(jì)局國(guó)際統(tǒng)計(jì)信息中心

一、世界經(jīng)濟(jì)

表1 世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率(上年=100) 單位：%

注：1.國(guó)際貨幣基金組織公布的世界及分類(lèi)數(shù)據(jù)按照購(gòu)買(mǎi)力平價(jià)方法進(jìn)行匯總，世界銀行和英國(guó)共識(shí)公司按匯率法進(jìn)行匯總。2.印度數(shù)據(jù)指財(cái)政年度。2013年、2014年度數(shù)據(jù)為印度官方大幅上修后數(shù)據(jù)，而2015年及2016年數(shù)據(jù)系參照官方修訂后數(shù)據(jù)的預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果。3.各經(jīng)濟(jì)體2013年、2014年數(shù)據(jù)已據(jù)其官方發(fā)布結(jié)果作了調(diào)整。

表2 世界貿(mào)易量增長(zhǎng)率(上年=100) 單位：%

注: 包括貨物和服務(wù)。

資料來(lái)源: 國(guó)際貨幣基金組織2015年10月預(yù)測(cè)。

表3 消費(fèi)者價(jià)格漲跌率(上年=100) 單位：%

注: 1.印度來(lái)源于英國(guó)共識(shí)公司的數(shù)據(jù)指財(cái)政年度。2.各經(jīng)濟(jì)體2013年、2014年數(shù)據(jù)已據(jù)其官方發(fā)布結(jié)果作了調(diào)整。

表4 消費(fèi)者價(jià)格同比上漲率 單位：%

資料來(lái)源：世界銀行數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)。

表5 工業(yè)生產(chǎn)

年份月份工業(yè)生產(chǎn)指數(shù)同比增長(zhǎng)率(%)JP摩根全球制造業(yè)采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)世界發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家發(fā)展中國(guó)家全球PMI產(chǎn)出指數(shù)新訂單指數(shù)2014年3.22.75.211月2.51.34.951.852.352.312月3.21.95.451.552.052.02015年1月3.21.74.151.752.952.22月2.51.44.351.953.252.23月2.51.44.151.753.352.14月1.91.14.151.051.751.05月1.90.83.751.351.951.46月2.51.34.551.051.451.37月2.51.04.051.151.751.38月2.51.34.250.751.051.49月1.20.83.250.751.051.410月2.50.73.851.351.952.011月51.252.351.5

注：1.工業(yè)生產(chǎn)指數(shù)同比增長(zhǎng)率為經(jīng)季節(jié)調(diào)整的數(shù)據(jù)。2.采購(gòu)經(jīng)理人指數(shù)超過(guò)50預(yù)示著經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張期。

資料來(lái)源：世界銀行數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)、美國(guó)供應(yīng)管理協(xié)會(huì)。

二、美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)

表6 國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值及其構(gòu)成增長(zhǎng)率(環(huán)比) 單位：%

表7 國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值及其構(gòu)成增長(zhǎng)率(環(huán)比) 單位：%

注：季度數(shù)據(jù)按季節(jié)因素調(diào)整、折年率計(jì)算(表6、表7)。

資料來(lái)源：美國(guó)商務(wù)部經(jīng)濟(jì)分析局(表6、表7)。

表8 國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值及其構(gòu)成增長(zhǎng)率(同比) 單位：%

表9 國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值及其構(gòu)成增長(zhǎng)率(同比) 單位：%

注：季度數(shù)據(jù)按季節(jié)因素調(diào)整(表8、表9)。

資料來(lái)源：美國(guó)商務(wù)部經(jīng)濟(jì)分析局(表8、表9)。

表10 勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng) 單位：%

注:除年度數(shù)據(jù)以外，勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)率為該月份所在季度的增長(zhǎng)率。

資料來(lái)源：美國(guó)勞工統(tǒng)計(jì)局。

表11 進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易 單位：億美元

注:包括貨物和服務(wù)貿(mào)易。因季節(jié)調(diào)整，各月合計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)不等于全年總計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)。

資料來(lái)源：美國(guó)商務(wù)部普查局。

表12 外國(guó)直接投資 單位：億美元

資料來(lái)源：美國(guó)商務(wù)部經(jīng)濟(jì)分析局。

三、歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)

表13 國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值及其構(gòu)成增長(zhǎng)率(環(huán)比) 單位：%

表14 國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值及其構(gòu)成增長(zhǎng)率(環(huán)比) 單位：%

資料來(lái)源：歐盟統(tǒng)計(jì)局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)庫(kù)(表13、表14)。

表15 勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng) 單位：%

注:除年度數(shù)據(jù)以外，勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)率為該月份所在季度增長(zhǎng)率；就業(yè)人數(shù)為該月份所在季度的環(huán)比變化。

資料來(lái)源：歐洲央行統(tǒng)計(jì)月報(bào)、歐盟統(tǒng)計(jì)局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)庫(kù)。

表16 國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值及其構(gòu)成增長(zhǎng)率(同比) 單位：%

表17 國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值及其構(gòu)成增長(zhǎng)率(同比) 單位：%

資料來(lái)源：歐盟統(tǒng)計(jì)局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)庫(kù)(表16、表17)。

表18 進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易 單位：億歐元

注:歐元區(qū)絕對(duì)數(shù)指歐元區(qū)現(xiàn)有范圍，即19個(gè)成員國(guó)。貿(mào)易額不包括歐元區(qū)各成員國(guó)相互之間的貿(mào)易額，為經(jīng)季節(jié)調(diào)整后的數(shù)據(jù)。

資料來(lái)源：歐盟統(tǒng)計(jì)局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)庫(kù)。

表19 外國(guó)直接投資 單位：億歐元

注:歐元區(qū)絕對(duì)數(shù)指歐元區(qū)現(xiàn)有范圍，即19個(gè)成員國(guó)。歐元區(qū)外國(guó)直接投資額不包括歐元區(qū)各成員國(guó)相互之間的直接投資額。

資料來(lái)源：歐洲央行統(tǒng)計(jì)月報(bào)。

四、日本經(jīng)濟(jì)

表20 國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值及其構(gòu)成增長(zhǎng)率(環(huán)比) 單位：%

表21 國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值及其構(gòu)成增長(zhǎng)率(環(huán)比) 單位：%

表22 國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值及其構(gòu)成增長(zhǎng)率(同比) 單位：%

表23 國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值及其構(gòu)成增長(zhǎng)率(同比) 單位：%

資料來(lái)源：日本內(nèi)閣府(表20～表23)。

表24 勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng) 單位：%

資料來(lái)源：日本統(tǒng)計(jì)局和日本央行統(tǒng)計(jì)月報(bào)。

表25 進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易 單位：億日元

注:月度貿(mào)易額為季節(jié)調(diào)整后數(shù)據(jù)。

資料來(lái)源：日本財(cái)務(wù)省。

表26 外國(guó)直接投資 單位：億日元

資料來(lái)源：日本財(cái)務(wù)省。

五、其他主要國(guó)家和地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)

表27 國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長(zhǎng)率(同比) 單位：%

注：印度年度GDP增長(zhǎng)率為財(cái)年增長(zhǎng)率。

表28 國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增長(zhǎng)率(同比) 單位：%

資料來(lái)源：各經(jīng)濟(jì)體官方統(tǒng)計(jì)網(wǎng)站。

表29 勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)失業(yè)率 單位：%

表30 勞動(dòng)力市場(chǎng)失業(yè)率 單位：%

注：1.英國(guó)和中國(guó)香港月度數(shù)據(jù)為截至當(dāng)月的3個(gè)月移動(dòng)平均失業(yè)率。2.加拿大、英國(guó)、韓國(guó)和中國(guó)香港為經(jīng)季節(jié)因素調(diào)整后的失業(yè)率。

資料來(lái)源：各經(jīng)濟(jì)體官方統(tǒng)計(jì)網(wǎng)站。

表31 進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易 單位：億美元

注：加拿大和英國(guó)數(shù)據(jù)經(jīng)過(guò)季節(jié)因素調(diào)整。

表32 進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易 單位：億美元

表33 進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易 單位：億美元

表34 進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易 單位：億美元

表35 進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易 單位：億美元

表36 進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易 單位：億美元

資料來(lái)源：各經(jīng)濟(jì)體官方統(tǒng)計(jì)網(wǎng)站(表27～表36)。

六、三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體指標(biāo)對(duì)比圖

圖1 三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體GDP環(huán)比增長(zhǎng)率(%) 注：美國(guó)為環(huán)比折年率增長(zhǎng)率。

圖2 三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體失業(yè)率變動(dòng)(%)

圖3 三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體出口額同比增長(zhǎng)率(%)

圖4 三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體進(jìn)口額同比增長(zhǎng)率(%) 數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)源：各經(jīng)濟(jì)體官方統(tǒng)計(jì)網(wǎng)站(圖1～圖4)。

責(zé)任編輯：陳璇璇

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(1) The Analysis of World Economy Trend in 2015 and Outlook on 2016

Chen Wenling Yan Shaojun

From 2015 to 2016, the world economic recovery is still slow, still in the slow growth of the “new normal.” Economy, politics and diplomacy under profound changes intertwined, and the world still stayed in the periods of turbulence, transition, change and adjustment. World Economy performed as “three lows” and the “three imbalances”, the major economies has obvious differentiations, macroeconomic policy game including currency, finance and trade between the major powers had become an important variable affecting world economic growth. The uncertainty of world economic growth increased. This requires us to grasp the development trend of the world economy and China’s economy, and implement a better opening-up strategy to address current challenges and fight for a better future, and strive for greater national interests in the stage of international cooperation and competition.

(2)Great Achievements of China in the period of the 12th Five Year Plan

Lin Zhaomu

During the period of the 12th Five Year Plan, facing the complex domestic and international environment, our Party has led people of all nationalities to make great achievements in economic, political, military, cultural and other aspects, which had laid a solid foundation for building a well-off society and had significant and far-reaching significance for the realization of two “one-hundred-year” goals.

(3)Sovereign Wealth Funds as International Institutional Investors: a Reevaluation (2008-2013 Survey)

Meng Chen, Jiang Chunyang

This paper provides a clear definition of Sovereign Wealth funds (SWFs) that differentiates them from similar institutions. It adds to the analysis of SWF behavior by using the lens of the theory of the multinational enterprise. A comprehensive survey of the international investment behavior of SWFs is undertaken that shows the funds to be largely conservative in their investment policies and non-strategic in investment approaches. Policies towards SWF are recommended that take account of their particular characteristics but are neutral with regard to their international investment behavior.

(4)Analysis and Outlook of Global Services Situation

Wang Xiaohong,Li Yongjian

In recent years, affected by the slow world economic recovery at sluggish growth, the global services industry has maintained steady low growth, extremely with uneven levels of development; cross-border investment keeps steady with a slight decrease, but still holding the dominant position; global trade in services remain robust in low growth, still better than the overall growth in world trade; policy innovation accelerates with the Internet becoming the main force. At the same time, the new trends will emerge in these ways: the development of Internet driving the global services industry into continuous innovation, Internet banking providing new impetus and a new model for the financial industry, crowdsourcing model becoming the new engine for growth in the service outsourcing industry, the intelligent manufacturing becoming the new trend in manufacturing Servitization, sharing economy becoming a new model of service development, big data and e-commerce and other new industry maintaining strong growth momentum. In 2015-2016 service industry will make a flat and low increase with about 3.2% to 3.5%, its proportion occupying about 70% in the whole GDP.

(5)Impelling RMB Internationalization with a New Round of Capital Account Opening

Ye Zhendong

After the international financial crisis, the voice of the international monetary system reform brings important strategic opportunities for the RMB internationalization. China is to build a comprehensive new system of open economy, with the efforts from all aspects of economic, financial, institutional and other rules, in order to seek international status with its matched power. With China’s “One Belt One Road” strategy gaining widespread and profound influence in the international community, the internationalization of RMB is expected to accelerate in the future. This paper analyzes the implications of RMB internationalization, determinants, benefits and risks. With a comprehensive of domestic and international research, based on the review of China’s capital account liberalization, it pointed out that a low degree of openness of the capital account is currently the most important factor to limit the internationalization of RMB, and analyzes the current situation of subitems of capital projects. In order to promote the internationalization of the RMB, we propose accelerating a new round of capital account liberalization, and properly handling the “three questions”, focusing on broadening RMB circulation channels to promote the construction of RMB securities markets, activate two-way direct investment, and improve the relevant supporting reform measures.

(6)Current Situation of China’s utilization of foreign investment in the 12thFive-year Plan period and strategic choice in the 13thFive-year Plan Period

Li Rui

In the 12thFive-year plan period, the world is in slow and difficult recovery after the international financial crisis, while FDI is also in fluctuated state. China’s FDI scale has been in sustainable development, industrial structure of utilization of foreign capital has been further improved, and regional distribution imbalance has been eased. With the continuous adjustment of state policies in utilization of foreign capital, China’s FDI scale, quality and efficiency has been continuously improving, thus China has become the largest Destination Country of FDI. Meanwhile, China’s utilization of foreign investment remains rising costs, uneven distribution and low efficiency. In “Thirteenth Five-year” period, foreign industrial layout is to be optimized for pushing up the value chain to the high-end; regional distribution of foreign investment shall be optimized for promoting balanced regional development; global high-end production factors gathering capacity is to be improved in enhancing innovation capacity; and a sound investment environment shall be created for encouraging investment liberalization facilitation.

(7)Thinking on the Current China’s Economy

Li Luoli

China’s current economic downturn is so clear that we need to consider more on its long-term development of the situation and the fact that the nature of serious consideration. Although the economy into some difficulties, but difficulties just develop it, not a crisis but not collapse. Current issue fundamentally beneficial long-term sustainable development, the key historical periods because the Chinese economy has been the need to transition. The current economic downturn phenomenon is bound to have and implement restructuring faced, the key is the correct solution. Observation of a country’s economic growth rate is reasonable, mainly to see its growth rate can meet the employment rate. Only the traditional economic indicators to determine trends and long-term development of the real economy, is no longer accurate and objective, the need for new indicators to analyze and research on new economic form. Analysis of the investment rate and consumption rate is reasonable, you must look at the nature of the phenomenon in depth. China’s current economy continues to improve, mostly with great innovation ability and enthusiasm. Various information data on e-commerce, to a certain extent can be an important indicator to observe today’s new economic form.

(8)Reform of the Housing Accumulation Fund System under the “New Normal”Situation

Cao Wenlian, Deng Zhihua, Fang Zheng

China’s development into the new normal, housing provident fund system is difficult and time. To promote its reform, we must fully understand the “quasi public goods” nature of the housing provident fund, and create a new type of housing provident fund system with Chinese characteristics. Should base on the national conditions, pay close attention to the justice, broaden coverage, to accelerate the formation of its redistribution function of the provident fund accumulation system; the focus for the low-income groups, a moderate expansion of fund use, accelerate the construction of housing policy financial system; to promote public information, improve the regulatory system, the establishment of rights and responsibilities clear, clean and efficient fund management system; to properly resolve the issues left over from history and the conflicting interests of the parties, carefully designed, implemented step by step, and strive to achieve provident fund system transformation in 3-5 years.

Editor：Guo Zhouming